The neighbourhood environment and profiles of the metabolic syndrome

Background There is a dearth of studies on how neighbourhood environmental attributes relate to the metabolic syndrome (MetS) and profiles of MetS components. We examined the associations of interrelated aspects of the neighbourhood environment, including air pollution, with MetS status and profiles of MetS components. Methods We used socio-demographic and MetS-related data from 3681 urban adults who participated in the 3rd wave of the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study. Neighbourhood environmental attributes included area socio-economic status (SES), population density, street intersection density, non-commercial land use mix, percentages of commercial land, parkland and blue space. Annual average concentrations of NO2 and PM2.5 were estimated using satellite-based land-use regression models. Latent class analysis (LCA) identified homogenous groups (latent classes) of participants based on MetS components data. Participants were then classified into five metabolic profiles according to their MetS-components latent class and MetS status. Generalised additive mixed models were used to estimate relationships of environmental attributes with MetS status and metabolic profiles. Results LCA yielded three latent classes, one including only participants without MetS (“Lower probability of MetS components” profile). The other two classes/profiles, consisting of participants with and without MetS, were “Medium-to-high probability of high fasting blood glucose, waist circumference and blood pressure” and “Higher probability of MetS components”. Area SES was the only significant predictor of MetS status: participants from high SES areas were less likely to have MetS. Area SES, percentage of commercial land and NO2 were associated with the odds of membership to healthier metabolic profiles without MetS, while annual average concentration of PM2.5 was associated with unhealthier metabolic profiles with MetS. Conclusions This study supports the utility of operationalising MetS as a combination of latent classes of MetS components and MetS status in studies of environmental correlates. Higher socio-economic advantage, good access to commercial services and low air pollution levels appear to independently contribute to different facets of metabolic health. Future research needs to consider conducting longitudinal studies using fine-grained environmental measures that more accurately characterise the neighbourhood environment in relation to behaviours or other mechanisms related to MetS and its components

Lipidomic risk score independently and cost-effectively predicts risk of future type 2 diabetes: results from diverse cohorts

Background: Detection of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is routinely based on the presence of dysglycemia. Although disturbed lipid metabolism is a hallmark of T2D, the potential of plasma lipidomics as a biomarker of future T2D is unknown. Our objective was to develop and validate a plasma lipidomic risk score (LRS) as a biomarker of future type 2 diabetes and to evaluate its cost-effectiveness for T2D screening. Methods: Plasma LRS, based on significantly associated lipid species from an array of 319 lipid species, was developed in a cohort of initially T2D-free individuals from the San Antonio Family Heart Study (SAFHS). The LRS derived from SAFHS as well as its recalibrated version were validated in an independent cohort from Australia--the AusDiab cohort. The participants were T2D-free at baseline and followed for 9197 person-years in the SAFHS cohort (n = 771) and 5930 person-years in the AusDiab cohort (n = 644). Statistically and clinically improved T2D prediction was evaluated with established statistical parameters in both cohorts. Modeling studies were conducted to determine whether the use of LRS would be cost-effective for T2D screening. The main outcome measures included accuracy and incremental value of the LRS over routinely used clinical predictors of T2D risk; validation of these results in an independent cohort and cost-effectiveness of including LRS in screening/intervention programs for T2D. Results: The LRS was based on plasma concentration of dihydroceramide 18:0, lysoalkylphosphatidylcholine 22:1 and triacyglycerol 16:0/18:0/18:1. The score predicted future T2D independently of prediabetes with an accuracy of 76%. Even in the subset of initially euglycemic individuals, the LRS improved T2D prediction. In the AusDiab cohort, the LRS continued to predict T2D significantly and independently. When combined with risk-stratification methods currently used in clinical practice, the LRS significantly improved the model fit (p \u3c 0.001), information content (p \u3c 0.001), discrimination (p \u3c 0.001) and reclassification (p \u3c 0.001) in both cohorts. Modeling studies demonstrated that LRS-based risk-stratification combined with metformin supplementation for high-risk individuals was the most cost-effective strategy for T2D prevention. Conclusions: Considering the novelty, incremental value and cost-effectiveness of LRS it should be used for risk-stratification of future T2D

25-Hydroxyvitamin D levels and chronic kidney disease in the AusDiab (Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle) study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Low 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25(OH)D) levels have been associated with an increased risk of albuminuria, however an association with glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is not clear. We explored the relationship between 25(OH)D levels and prevalent chronic kidney disease (CKD), albuminuria and impaired GFR, in a national, population-based cohort of Australian adults (AusDiab Study).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>10,732 adults ≥25 years of age participating in the baseline survey of the AusDiab study (1999–2000) were included. The GFR was estimated using an enzymatic creatinine assay and the CKD-EPI equation, with CKD defined as eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m². Albuminuria was defined as a spot urine albumin to creatinine ratio (ACR) of ≥2.5 mg/mmol for men and ≥3.5 for women. Serum 25(OH)D levels of <50 nmol/L were considered vitamin D deficient. The associations between 25(OH)D level, albuminuria and impaired eGFR were estimated using multivariate regression models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>30.7% of the study population had a 25(OH)D level <50 nmol/L (95% CI 25.6-35.8). 25(OH)D deficiency was significantly associated with an impaired eGFR in the univariate model (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.07-2.17), but not in the multivariate model (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.67-1.35). 25(OH)D deficiency was significantly associated with albuminuria in the univariate (OR 2.05, 95% CI 1.58-2.67) and multivariate models (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.14-2.07).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Vitamin D deficiency is common in this population, and 25(OH)D levels of <50 nmol/L were independently associated with albuminuria, but not with impaired eGFR. These associations warrant further exploration in prospective and interventional studies.</p

HbA 1c , fasting and 2 h plasma glucose in current, ex-and never-smokers: a meta-analysis

Abstract Aims/Hypothesis The relationships between smoking and glycaemic variables have not been well explored. We compared HbA 1c , fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and 2 h plasma glucose (2H-PG) in current, ex-and never-smokers. Methods This meta-analysis used individual data from 16,886 men and 18,539 women without known diabetes in 12 DETECT-2 consortium studies and in the French Data from an Epidemiological Study on the Insulin Resistance Syndrome (DESIR) and Telecom studies. Means of three glycaemic variables in current, ex-and never-smokers were modelled by linear regression, with study as a random factor. The I 2 statistic was used to evaluate heterogeneity among studies. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00125-013-3058-y) contains peer-reviewed but unedited supplementary material, which is available to authorised users

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: A comparative risk assessment

Background: High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. Methods: We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. Findings: In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. Interpretation: The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd

National trends in total cholesterol obscure heterogeneous changes in HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio : a pooled analysis of 458 population-based studies in Asian and Western countries

Background: Although high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and non-HDL cholesterol have opposite associations with coronary heart disease, multi-country reports of lipid trends only use total cholesterol (TC). Our aim was to compare trends in total, HDL and nonHDL cholesterol and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio in Asian and Western countries. Methods: We pooled 458 population-based studies with 82.1 million participants in 23 Asian and Western countries. We estimated changes in mean total, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio by country, sex and age group. Results: Since similar to 1980, mean TC increased in Asian countries. In Japan and South Korea, the TC rise was due to rising HDL cholesterol, which increased by up to 0.17 mmol/L per decade in Japanese women; in China, it was due to rising non-HDL cholesterol. TC declined in Western countries, except in Polish men. The decline was largest in Finland and Norway, at similar to 0.4 mmol/L per decade. The decline in TC in most Western countries was the net effect of an increase in HDL cholesterol and a decline in non-HDL cholesterol, with the HDL cholesterol increase largest in New Zealand and Switzerland. Mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio declined in Japan, South Korea and most Western countries, by as much as similar to 0.7 per decade in Swiss men (equivalent to similar to 26% decline in coronary heart disease risk per decade). The ratio increased in China. Conclusions: HDL cholesterol has risen and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio has declined in many Western countries, Japan and South Korea, with only a weak correlation with changes in TC or non-HDL cholesterol.Peer reviewe

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries(1,2). However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world(3) and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health(4,5). However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular riskchanged from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.Peer reviewe