Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For schoolaged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesit

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions

Moderate Altitude Residence Reduces Male Colorectal and Female Breast Cancer Mortality More Than Incidence: Therapeutic Implications?

Simple Summary Living at moderate altitudes has been reported to be associated with health benefits, including reduced mortality from male colorectal and female breast cancer. The aim of this study was to evaluate altitude-dependent incidence rates and to compare them with mortality rates of those cancers. We further explored whether altitude-associated differences in lifestyle behaviour exist. Analyses including all incidence cases and deaths over a 10-year observation period of an Alpine country (Austria) revealed that the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of male colorectal cancer decreased by 24.0% and 44.2%, and that of female breast cancer by 6.5% and 26.2%, from the lowest (<251 m) to the highest (1000-2000) altitude level. The population-based survey indicated higher physical activity levels and lower body mass index for both sexes living at a moderate altitude compared to those living below 251 m. These observations may, in certain cases, support decision making when changing residence. Background: Living at moderate altitude may be associated with health benefits, including reduced mortality from male colorectal and female breast cancer. We aimed to determine altitude-dependent incidence and mortality rates of those cancers and put them in the context of altitude-associated lifestyle differences. Methods: Incidence cases and deaths of male colorectal cancer (n = 17,712 and 7462) and female breast cancer (n = 33,803 and 9147) from altitude categories between 250 to about 2000 m were extracted from official Austrian registries across 10 years (2008-2017). Altitude-associated differences in health determinants were derived from the Austrian Health Interview Survey (2014). Results: The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of male colorectal cancer decreased by 24.0% and 44.2%, and that of female breast cancer by 6.5% and 26.2%, respectively, from the lowest to the highest altitude level. Higher physical activity levels and lower body mass index for both sexes living at higher altitudes were found. Conclusions: Living at a moderate altitude was associated with a reduced incidence and (more pronounced) mortality from colorectal and breast cancer. Our results suggest a complex interaction between specific climate conditions and lifestyle behaviours. These observations may, in certain cases, support decision making when changing residence

International versus national growth charts for identifying small and large-for-gestational age newborns: A population-based study in 15 European countries

Background To inform the on-going debate about the use of universal prescriptive versus national intrauterine growth charts, we compared perinatal mortality for small and large-for-gestational-age (SGA/LGA) infants according to international and national charts in Europe. Methods We classified singleton births from 33 to 42 weeks of gestation in 2010 and 2014 from 15 countries (N = 1,475,457) as SGA (birthweight 90th percentile) using the international Intergrowth-21st newborn standards and national charts based on the customised charts methodology. We computed sex-adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for stillbirth, neonatal and extended perinatal mortality by this classification using multilevel models. Findings SGA and LGA prevalence using national charts were near 10% in all countries, but varied according to international charts with a north to south gradient (3.0% to 10.1% and 24.9% to 8.0%, respectively). Compared with appropriate for gestational age (AGA) infants by both charts, risk of perinatal mortality was increased for SGA by both charts (aOR[95% confidence interval (CI)]=6.1 [5.6–6.7]) and infants reclassified by international charts from SGA to AGA (2.7 [2.3–3.1]), but decreased for those reclassified from AGA to LGA (0.6 [0.4–0.7]). Results were similar for stillbirth and neonatal death. Interpretation Using international instead of national charts in Europe could lead to growth restricted infants being reclassified as having normal growth, while infants with low risks of mortality could be reclassified as having excessive growth. Funding InfAct Joint Action, CHAFEA Grant n°801,553 and EU/EFPIA Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking ConcePTION grant n°821,520. AH received a PhD grant from EHESP

International versus national growth charts for identifying small and large-for-gestational age newborns: A population-based study in 15 European countries

International audienc

Variations in multiple birth rates and impact on perinatal outcomes in Europe

Objective: Infants from multiple pregnancies have higher rates of preterm birth, stillbirth and neonatal death and differences in multiple birth rates (MBR) exist between countries. We aimed to describe differences in MBR in Europe and to investigate the impact of these differences on adverse perinatal outcomes at a population level. Methods: We used national aggregate birth data on multiple pregnancies, maternal age, gestational age (GA), stillbirth and neonatal death collected in the Euro-Peristat project (29 countries in 2010, N = 5 074 643 births). We also used European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology (ESHRE) data on assisted conception and single embryo transfer (SET). The impact of MBR on outcomes was studied using meta-analysis techniques with randomeffects models to derive pooled risk ratios (pRR) overall and for four groups of country defined by their MBR. We computed population attributable risks (PAR) for these groups. Results: In 2010, the average MBR was 16.8 per 1000 women giving birth, ranging from 9.1 (Romania) to 26.5 (Cyprus). Compared to singletons, multiples had a nine-fold increased risk (pRR 9.4, 95% Cl 9.1-9.8) of preterm birth (<37 weeks GA), an almost 12-fold increased risk (pRR 11.7, 95% CI 11.0-12.4) of very preterm birth (<32 weeks GA). Pooled RR were 2.4 (95% Cl1.5-3.6) for fetal mortality at or after 28 weeks GA and 7.0 (95% Cl 6.1-8.0) for neonatal mortality. PAR of neonatal death and very preterm birth were higher in countries with high MBR compared to low MBR (17.1% (95% CI 13.8-20.2) versus 9.8% (95% Cl 9.6-11.0) for neonatal death and 29.6% (96% CI 28.5-30.6) versus 17.5% (95% CI 15.7-18.3) for very preterm births, respectively). Conclusions: Wide variations in MBR and their impact on population outcomes imply that efforts by countries to reduce MBR could improve perinatal outcomes, enabling better long-term child health