Surface indicators are correlated with soil multifunctionality in global drylands

Multiple ecosystem functions need to be considered simultaneously to manage and protect the several ecosystem services that are essential to people and their environments. Despite this, cost effective, tangible, relatively simple and globally relevant methodologies to monitor in situ soil multifunctionality, that is, the provision of multiple ecosystem functions by soils, have not been tested at the global scale. We combined correlation analysis and structural equation modelling to explore whether we could find easily measured, field-based indicators of soil multifunctionality (measured using functions linked to the cycling and storage of soil carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus). To do this, we gathered soil data from 120 dryland ecosystems from five continents. Two soil surface attributes measured in situ (litter incorporation and surface aggregate stability) were the most strongly associated with soil multifunctionality, even after accounting for geographic location and other drivers such as climate, woody cover, soil pH and soil electric conductivity. The positive relationships between surface stability and litter incorporation on soil multifunctionality were greater beneath the canopy of perennial vegetation than in adjacent, open areas devoid of vascular plants. The positive associations between surface aggregate stability and soil functions increased with increasing mean annual temperature. Synthesis and applications. Our findings demonstrate that a reduced suite of easily measured in situ soil surface attributes can be used as potential indicators of soil multifunctionality in drylands world-wide. These attributes, which relate to plant litter (origin, incorporation, cover), and surface stability, are relatively cheap and easy to assess with minimal training, allowing operators to sample many sites across widely varying climatic areas and soil types. The correlations of these variables are comparable to the influence of climate or soil, and would allow cost-effective monitoring of soil multifunctionality under changing land-use and environmental conditions. This would provide important information for evaluating the ecological impacts of land degradation, desertification and climate change in drylands world-wide.Fil: Eldridge, David J.. University of New South Wales; AustraliaFil: Delgado Baquerizo, Manuel. Universidad Rey Juan Carlos; EspañaFil: Quero, José L.. Universidad de Córdoba; EspañaFil: Ochoa, Victoria. Universidad Rey Juan Carlos; España. Universidad de Alicante; EspañaFil: Gozalo, Beatriz. Universidad Rey Juan Carlos; España. Universidad de Alicante; EspañaFil: García Palacios, Pablo. Universidad Rey Juan Carlos; EspañaFil: Escolar, Cristina. Universidad Rey Juan Carlos; EspañaFil: García Gómez, Miguel. Universidad Politécnica de Madrid; EspañaFil: Prina, Aníbal. Universidad Nacional de La Pampa; ArgentinaFil: Bowker, Mathew A.. Northern Arizona University; Estados UnidosFil: Bran, Donaldo Eduardo. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Patagonia Norte. Estación Experimental Agropecuaria San Carlos de Bariloche; ArgentinaFil: Castro, Ignacio. Universidad Experimental Simón Rodríguez; VenezuelaFil: Cea, Alex. Universidad de La Serena; ChileFil: Derak, Mchich. No especifíca;Fil: Espinosa, Carlos I.. Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja; EcuadorFil: Florentino, Adriana. Universidad Central de Venezuela; VenezuelaFil: Gaitán, Juan José. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro de Investigación de Recursos Naturales. Instituto de Suelos; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Luján. Departamento de Tecnología; ArgentinaFil: Gatica, Mario Gabriel. Universidad Nacional de San Juan. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Departamento de Biología; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Juan. Centro de Investigaciones de la Geosfera y Biosfera. Universidad Nacional de San Juan. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones de la Geosfera y Biosfera; ArgentinaFil: Gómez González, Susana. Universidad de Cádiz; EspañaFil: Ghiloufi, Wahida. Université de Sfax; TúnezFil: Gutierrez, Julio R.. Universidad de La Serena; ChileFil: Guzman, Elizabeth. Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja; EcuadorFil: Hernández, Rosa M.. Universidad Experimental Simón Rodríguez; VenezuelaFil: Hughes, Frederic M.. Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana; BrasilFil: Muiño, Walter. Universidad Nacional de La Pampa; ArgentinaFil: Monerris, Jorge. No especifíca;Fil: Ospina, Abelardo. Universidad Central de Venezuela; VenezuelaFil: Ramírez, David A.. International Potato Centre; PerúFil: Ribas Fernandez, Yanina Antonia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - San Juan. Centro de Investigaciones de la Geosfera y Biosfera. Universidad Nacional de San Juan. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones de la Geosfera y Biosfera; ArgentinaFil: Romão, Roberto L.. Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana; BrasilFil: Torres Díaz, Cristian. Universidad del Bio Bio; ChileFil: Koen, Terrance B.. No especifíca;Fil: Maestre, Fernando T.. Universidad Rey Juan Carlos; España. Universidad de Alicante; Españ

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe

Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For schoolaged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesit

Unforeseen plant phenotypic diversity in a dry and grazed world

23 páginas..- 4 figuras y 7 figuras.- 50 referencias y 90 referenciasEarth harbours an extraordinary plant phenotypic diversity1 that is at risk from ongoing global changes2,3. However, it remains unknown how increasing aridity and livestock grazing pressure—two major drivers of global change4,5,6—shape the trait covariation that underlies plant phenotypic diversity1,7. Here we assessed how covariation among 20 chemical and morphological traits responds to aridity and grazing pressure within global drylands. Our analysis involved 133,769 trait measurements spanning 1,347 observations of 301 perennial plant species surveyed across 326 plots from 6 continents. Crossing an aridity threshold of approximately 0.7 (close to the transition between semi-arid and arid zones) led to an unexpected 88% increase in trait diversity. This threshold appeared in the presence of grazers, and moved toward lower aridity levels with increasing grazing pressure. Moreover, 57% of observed trait diversity occurred only in the most arid and grazed drylands, highlighting the phenotypic uniqueness of these extreme environments. Our work indicates that drylands act as a global reservoir of plant phenotypic diversity and challenge the pervasive view that harsh environmental conditions reduce plant trait diversity8,9,10. They also highlight that many alternative strategies may enable plants to cope with increases in environmental stress induced by climate change and land-use intensification.This research was funded by the European Research Council (ERC Grant agreement 647038 1004 [BIODESERT]) and Generalitat Valenciana (CIDEGENT/2018/041). N.G. was supported by CAP 20–25 (16-IDEX-0001) and the AgreenSkills+ fellowship programme which has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme under grant agreement FP7-609398 (AgreenSkills+ contract). F.T.M. acknowledges support from the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), the KAUST Climate and Livability Initiative, the University of Alicante (UADIF22-74 and VIGROB22-350), the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (PID2020-116578RB-I00), and the Synthesis Center (sDiv) of the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research Halle–Jena–Leipzig (iDiv). Y.L.B.-P. was supported by a Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions Individual Fellowship (MSCA-1018 IF) within the European Program Horizon 2020 (DRYFUN Project 656035). H.S. is supported by a María Zambrano fellowship funded by the Ministry of Universities and European Union-Next Generation plan. L.W. acknowledges support from the US National Science Foundation (EAR 1554894). G.M.W. acknowledges support from the Australian Research Council (DP210102593) and TERN. M.B is supported by a Ramón y Cajal grant from Spanish Ministry of Science (RYC2021-031797-I). L.v.d.B. and K.T. were supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG) Priority Program SPP-1803 (TI388/14-1). A.F. acknowledges the financial support from ANID PIA/BASAL FB210006 and Millenium Science Initiative Program NCN2021-050. A.J. was supported by the Bavarian Research Alliance for travel and field work (BayIntAn UBT 2017 61). A.L. and L.K. acknowledge support from the German Research Foundation, DFG (grant CRC TRR228) and German Federal Government for Science and Education, BMBF (grants 01LL1802C and 01LC1821A). B.B. and S.U. were supported by the Taylor Family-Asia Foundation Endowed Chair in Ecology and Conservation Biology. P.J.R. and A.J.M. acknowledge support from Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional through the FEDER Andalucía operative programme, FEDER-UJA 1261180 project. E.M.-J. and C.P. acknowledge support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (PID2020-116578RB-I00). D.J.E. was supported by the Hermon Slade Foundation. J.D. and A.Rodríguez acknowledge support from the FCT (2020.03670.CEECIND and SFRH/BDP/108913/2015, respectively), as well as from the MCTES, FSE, UE and the CFE (UIDB/04004/2021) research unit financed by FCT/MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC). S.C.R. acknowledges support from the US Department of Energy (DE-SC-0008168), US Department of Defense (RC18-1322), and the US Geological Survey Ecosystems Mission Area. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US government. E.H.-S. acknowledges support from Mexican National Science and Technology Council (CONACYT PN 5036 and 319059). A.N. and C. Branquinho. acknowledge the support from FCT—Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (CEECIND/02453/2018/CP1534/CT0001, PTDC/ASP-SIL/7743/ 2020, UIDB/00329/2020), from AdaptForGrazing project (PRR-C05-i03-I-000035) and from LTsER Montado platform (LTER_EU_PT_001). Field work of G.P. and J.M.Z. was supported by UNRN (PI 40-C-873).Peer reviewe

Hotspots of biogeochemical activity linked to aridity and plant traits across global drylands

14 páginas.- 4 figuras.- 67 referencias.- The online version contains supplementary material available at https://doi.org/10.1038/s41477-024-01670-7Perennial plants create productive and biodiverse hotspots, known as fertile islands, beneath their canopies. These hotspots largely determine the structure and functioning of drylands worldwide. Despite their ubiquity, the factors controlling fertile islands under conditions of contrasting grazing by livestock, the most prevalent land use in drylands, remain virtually unknown. Here we evaluated the relative importance of grazing pressure and herbivore type, climate and plant functional traits on 24 soil physical and chemical attributes that represent proxies of key ecosystem services related to decomposition, soil fertility, and soil and water conservation. To do this, we conducted a standardized global survey of 288 plots at 88 sites in 25 countries worldwide. We show that aridity and plant traits are the major factors associated with the magnitude of plant effects on fertile islands in grazed drylands worldwide. Grazing pressure had little influence on the capacity of plants to support fertile islands. Taller and wider shrubs and grasses supported stronger island effects. Stable and functional soils tended to be linked to species-rich sites with taller plants. Together, our findings dispel the notion that grazing pressure or herbivore type are linked to the formation or intensification of fertile islands in drylands. Rather, our study suggests that changes in aridity, and processes that alter island identity and therefore plant traits, will have marked effects on how perennial plants support and maintain the functioning of drylands in a more arid and grazed world.This research was supported by the European Research Council (ERC grant 647038 (BIODESERT) awarded to F.T.M.) and Generalitat Valenciana (CIDEGENT/2018/041). D.J.E. was supported by the Hermon Slade Foundation (HSF21040). J. Ding was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Project (41991232) and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China. M.D.-B. acknowledges support from TED2021-130908B-C41/AEI/10.13039/501100011033/Unión Europea Next Generation EU/PRTR and the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation for the I + D + i project PID2020-115813RA-I00 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033. O.S. was supported by US National Science Foundation (Grants DEB 1754106, 20-25166), and Y.L.B.-P. by a Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions Individual Fellowship (MSCA-1018 IF) within the European Program Horizon 2020 (DRYFUN Project 656035). K.G. and N.B. acknowledge support from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) SPACES projects OPTIMASS (FKZ: 01LL1302A) and ORYCS (FKZ: FKZ01LL1804A). B.B. was supported by the Taylor Family-Asia Foundation Endowed Chair in Ecology and Conservation Biology, and M. Bowker by funding from the School of Forestry, Northern Arizona University. C.B. acknowledges funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41971131). D.B. acknowledges support from the Hungarian Research, Development and Innovation Office (NKFI KKP 144096), and A. Fajardo support from ANID PIA/BASAL FB 210006 and the Millennium Science Initiative Program NCN2021-050. M.F. and H.E. received funding from Ferdowsi University of Mashhad (grant 39843). A.N. and M.K. acknowledge support from FCT (CEECIND/02453/2018/CP1534/CT0001, SFRH/BD/130274/2017, PTDC/ASP-SIL/7743/2020, UIDB/00329/2020), EEA (10/CALL#5), AdaptForGrazing (PRR-C05-i03-I-000035) and LTsER Montado platform (LTER_EU_PT_001) grants. O.V. acknowledges support from the Hungarian Research, Development and Innovation Office (NKFI KKP 144096). L.W. was supported by the US National Science Foundation (EAR 1554894). Y.Z. and X.Z. were supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (U2003214). H.S. is supported by a María Zambrano fellowship funded by the Ministry of Universities and European Union-Next Generation plan. The use of any trade, firm or product names does not imply endorsement by any agency, institution or government. Finally, we thank the many people who assisted with field work and the landowners, corporations and national bodies that allowed us access to their land.Peer reviewe

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories. METHODS: We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age. FINDINGS: The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran. INTERPRETATION: Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings. FUNDING: WHO

Global variations in diabetes mellitus based on fasting glucose and haemogloblin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but may identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening had elevated FPG, HbA1c, or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardised proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed, and detected in survey screening, ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the agestandardised proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global gap in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance.peer-reviewe

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants

Background Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age. Findings The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran. Interpretation Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings. Copyright (C) 2021 World Health Organization; licensee Elsevier