PERLINDUNGAN ISLAM TERHADAP NON-MUSLIM STUDI SURAT JAMINAN RASULULLAH SAW KEPADA BIARA SANTA KATARINA

Many people consider Islam as a radical religion, anarchist, terrorist and so on, this stigma becomes a turning point of the values of Islamic peace as a religion rahmatan lil'alamin. Islam is also tarnished, especially in the eyes of non-Muslims who later led to Islamophobia in the West and Europe so that for them Islam is synonymous with violence and terrorism. In fact, hundreds of years ago Islam once ruled the world with peace, justice and safety. How can the Messenger of Allah be assured of the Monastery of Saint Catherine so that they are safe, comfortable and live peacefully in the protection of Islamic authority. This study aims to determine the guarantee of the Messenger of Allah against non-Muslims of their basic rights in religious, national and state life. The method used is descriptive qualitative method, which is a research process with a methodology that investigates the Prophet's agreement to the Monastery of St. Catherine through a historical approach. Broadly speaking, there are three findings in this study; first there is an indication of the authenticity of the text of the guarantee letter of the Prophet to the Monastery of Saint Catherine. Second, the contents of the manuscript are in accordance with Islamic teachings and law. Third, the contents of the agreement guarantee the basic rights of non-Muslims in religious life, nation and state, and encourage a life of tolerance, harmony, avoiding hostility and mutual respect

Influence of Porang (Amorphophalus Muelleri) Cultivation on the Composition of Soil Arthropods in Tropical Agroforestry Areas in East Java, Indonesia

This research was conducted on July to October 2010 to evaluate the effect of porang cultivation on the abundance, diversity and composition of soil Arthropods. Change in the abundance, diversity and composition of soil Arthropods was observed using pitfall traps in two study sites (Jember and Madiun). In each study site, samplings were performed in porang cultivation land and non-porang area. A total of 15 traps were put in three lines at each location. The differences in the abundance and diversity were analyzed by using multivariate analyze tests. The soil Arthropod compositions in all locations were compared with Bray-Curtis similarity index. The effect of environmental factors on the arthropod compositions was analyzed using multiple regression. The result showed that the effect of porang-cultivation was not consistent in two study sites. In Madiun, the abundance of soil Arthropods in porang cultivation land was slightly higher than that in non-porang, while the diversity was significantly higer in the former location. In contrast the those in Jember was found in vice versa situation. This study indicate that the effect of porang-cultivation was not subtantial to the composition of soil Arthropods. Therefore practice non harmful porang cultivation should be promoted as a part of agroforestry sistem in both study sites

Gastrointestinal bleeding in a newborn infant with congenital factor X deficiency and COVID-19—A common clinical feature between a rare disorder and a new, common infection

Dear Editors, Congenital factor X (FX) deficiency is an extremely rare, bleeding disorder with an estimated incidence of one per 1 million. Patients with severe FX deficiency (FX:C < 1%) demonstrate a wide spectrum of serious clinical presentations, including hemarthrosis, hematoma, gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), and umbilical cord bleeding.1 In fact, severe FX deficiency, with a high rate of life‐threatening bleeding, is the second‐most severe, rare coagulation factor deficiency (RCFD) after FXIII deficiency.1, 2 Although homozygotes are at risk of severe bleeding, heterozygotes usually are asymptomatic, but postsurgical bleeding or bleeding after childbirth may occur.1, 2 Other risk factors can increase the risk of bleeding in FX deficiency, and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19), a new medical challenge, could affect the patient's bleeding or thrombotic tendency.3 COVID‐19, which is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) presents an enormous challenge for everyone, especially for those with underlying risk factors such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, obesity, and renal failure. Age and male sex are other risk factors.4 Limited data are available regarding the effect of COVID‐19 on patients with congenital bleeding disorders (CBDs), particularly RCFDs.5 It has been shown that hypercoagulability‐related adverse consequences are less common among patients with CBDs, at least in those with moderate‐to‐severe deficiency, but further studies, including our ongoing work on a large number of patients, are required.5 Although there are several reports of newborns among infected pregnant mothers, this is the first report of such a case in an RCFD. This case report may help medical professionals to better manage similar cases. A 19‐year‐old pregnant woman was infected with SARS‐CoV‐2 early in the 9th month of pregnancy. Reverse transcriptase‐polymerase chain reaction (RT‐PCR) confirmed the infection. The patient had been in close contact with family members with confirmed COVID‐19. The patient had cough and fever. Due to the mild presentation, she was given Azithromycin and advised to isolate herself at home. The symptoms resolved within 14 days. At end of her 9th month, three days prior to the planned cesarean section, she was rechecked for SARS‐CoV‐2 infection; her RT‐PCR was negative. She successfully underwent cesarean section without complications and delivered a healthy full‐term baby. Therefore, mother and newborn discharged the following morning. In the evening, the baby experienced bloody vomiting and was hospitalized for further assessment, which showed GI bleeding. At admission, laboratory tests showed a positive C‐reactive protein (CRP) (qualitative), a low hemoglobin level, and prolonged prothrombin time (PT), and activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT) (Table 1). He was hospitalized in the neonate intensive care unit (NICU) for 10 days. Due to the risk of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection, on the third day after admission he was tested by RT‐PCR, which was positive. The neonate received 30 mL frozen plasma (FFP) six times over 10 days, which resolved the GI bleeding. Tranexamic acid (TXA) was administered at a dose of 10 mg/kg every 8 hours. Due to lack of COVID‐19 symptoms, he did not receive any special treatment for the disorder. After 10‐day hospitalization in the NICU, the neonate was sent to an isolation room for 5 days, during which his condition stabilized, after which he was discharged in stable condition. He has had no complications during the past two months after discharge. Since the child's father and two other first‐degree family members have severe FX deficiency, and the parents of the baby are closely related, the mother and the baby were checked for FX deficiency. Routine coagulation tests, and FX:C assay performed by STA Compact automatic coagulometer (Stago, Paris, France), revealed a severe deficiency in the baby, and a mild deficiency, compatible with heterozygote FX deficiency, in the mother (Table 1). Table 1. Laboratory characteristics of mother and baby with factor X deficiency and COVID‐19 Test Proband (2nd day after birth) Proband (7th day after birth) Proband (2 months after hospital discharge) Mother (about 3 1/2 months after SARS‐CoV‐2 infection) WBC × 109/L 14.2 (8‐24)b 9.43 (5‐21) 10.79 (6‐18) 8.7 (3.6‐10.6) RBC × 109/L 2.5 (4.36‐5.96) 2.78 (4.2‐5.8) 3.50 (3.4‐5) 4.41 (3.8‐5.2) Hb (g/dL) 8.2 (16.4‐20.8) 9.2 (15.2‐20.4) 10.2 (10.6‐16.4) 13.6 (12‐15) HCT (%) 24.6 (48‐68) 27 (50‐64) 29.2 (32‐50) 41.4 (35‐49) Lymphocyte × 109/L 6.4 (1.3‐11) 4.3 (1.2‐11.3) 8.21 (2.5‐13) 2.22 (1‐3.2) Neutrophil × 109/L 4.9 (2.6‐17) 2.9 (1.5‐12.6) 1.85 (1.2‐8.1) 5.75 (1.7‐7.5) Platelet × 109/L 370 (150‐450) 331 (150‐450) 334 (150‐450) 276 (150‐450) PT (sec) >60 (PTC: 12.6) 90 (PTC: 12.6) >60 (PTC: 10) 13 (PTC: 10) APTT (sec) >120 (APTTC: 31) 100 (APTTC: 30) >120 (APTTC: 32) 37 (APTTC: 32) CRP (Quantitative) Trace Negative NC NC FX:C level NC NC <1% (50%‐150%) 40% (50%‐150%) Abbreviations: APTT, activated partial thromboplastin time; APTTC, APTT control; CRP, C‐reactive protein; Hb, hemoglobin; HCT, hematocrit; NC, Not checked; PT, prothrombin time; PTC, PT control; RBC, red blood cell; WBC, white blood cell. a Hematological test normal ranges are extracted from Rodak's Hematology: Clinical Principles and Applications, 5th Ed (2016). b Normal values are placed in parentheses. COVID‐19 is an emerging medical challenge that can present more difficulties for those with special conditions, such as pregnant women and newborns. Due to alterations in cellular immunity, pregnant women are more prone to infection by intracellular pathogens like viruses.6 The fetus is also highly susceptible to infection due to immaturity of the immune system.7 Furthermore, the mother's (heterozygote) congenital coagulopathy and that of her newborn (homozygote) were additional potential risk factors, because a disrupted coagulation system is a prominent feature of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection.8 To date, FX deficiency in a newborn has not been cited anywhere as a special condition requiring close attention in the case of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection. According to the few reports to date, SARS‐CoV‐2 infection is a risk factor for severe maternal morbidity. It is worth noting that most of those mothers were discharged without complications.9 From a clinical aspect, fever was the most common symptom (68%) at the time of admission.9 This was also observed in the affected woman of this study. SARS‐CoV‐2 infection can even affect the type of delivery. A systematic review of these women showed that about 92% of deliveries were by cesarean section, less than 10% being the usual vaginal delivery (7 of 85). Fetal distress was mentioned as the most common indication for cesarean section. Our patient underwent a planned cesarean section, due to her previous history. The delivery itself was uneventful, and a healthy baby was delivered, while among other reported cases, a number of complications have been noted.9 As with most other reports, the infant did not have any symptoms at the time of delivery and was discharged the day after birth.9 In a case series of 10 patients, various first clinical presentations were observed, including shortness of breath (n = 6), fever (n = 2), vomiting (n = 1), and rapid heart rate (n = 1).10 In the case at hand, bloody vomiting was the first clinical presentation. In the same case series, one died due to refractory shock, multiple organ failure (MOF), and disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC). Another patient with severe presentation was managed by intravenous infusions of gamma globulin, platelets, and plasma, which was suggestive of the effectiveness of gamma globulin in severe cases. The author recommended early use of intravenous gamma globulin for passive immunization.10 GI bleeding in our case was successfully managed by administration of FFP and TXA. In addition to thrombotic complication, bleeding is not infrequent in patients affected by COVID‐19, with GI bleeding seemingly the most common hemorrhagic manifestation among adults. GI bleeding, with a frequency of 40%, was observed among neonates from affected mothers.3 On the other hand, GI bleeding is also a relatively common presentation among severely FX deficient patients.1, 2 In fact, GI bleeding can occur in children with severe FX deficiency within the first months of life. It seems that such patients are prone to experience severe bleeding, such as ICH, later in life, in the absence of an appropriate therapeutic strategy, most likely preventative regular secondary prophylaxis.1, 2 In one study of 102 patients with congenital FX deficiency, GI bleeding has been reported in 12% of symptomatic cases.1 In this case, with GI bleeding being a common presentation of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection and congenital FX deficiency, it cannot definitively be attributed to one or the other. Close monitoring of such cases is necessary to decrease related adverse consequences. Although it seems that COVID‐19 is less severe in adults with CBDs, it is a less‐known issue among children and newborns with CBDs. Further reports and studies could provide clarity. Due to their severe bleeding tendency, close monitoring of patients with severe congenital FX deficiency is mandatory, even without potential SARS‐CoV‐2 infection. And close monitoring of neonates with infected mothers is mandatory to prevent severe consequences. Patients with concomitant infection with SARS‐CoV‐2 require even more rigorous preventative and supportive care. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We highly appreciate Daisy Morant's valuable aid in improving the English Language of this manuscript. The study was supported and approved by Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences. CONFLICT OF INTEREST The authors have no competing interests. AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS A. Dorgalaleh designed the work, performed laboratory analysis, and wrote the manuscript. F Ghazizadeh, M. Baghaipour, A. Dabbagh, Gh. Bahoush, and N Baghaipour performed clinical studies. Sh. Tabibian, M. Jazebi, N. Baghaipour, M. Bahraini, A. Fazeli, and F. Yousefi performed laboratory analysis. All the authors approved the submission

Effects of hospital facilities on patient outcomes after cancer surgery: an international, prospective, observational study

Background Early death after cancer surgery is higher in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared with in high-income countries, yet the impact of facility characteristics on early postoperative outcomes is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the association between hospital infrastructure, resource availability, and processes on early outcomes after cancer surgery worldwide.Methods A multimethods analysis was performed as part of the GlobalSurg 3 study-a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study of patients who had surgery for breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and 30-day major complication rates. Potentially beneficial hospital facilities were identified by variable selection to select those associated with 30-day mortality. Adjusted outcomes were determined using generalised estimating equations to account for patient characteristics and country-income group, with population stratification by hospital.Findings Between April 1, 2018, and April 23, 2019, facility-level data were collected for 9685 patients across 238 hospitals in 66 countries (91 hospitals in 20 high-income countries; 57 hospitals in 19 upper-middle-income countries; and 90 hospitals in 27 low-income to lower-middle-income countries). The availability of five hospital facilities was inversely associated with mortality: ultrasound, CT scanner, critical care unit, opioid analgesia, and oncologist. After adjustment for case-mix and country income group, hospitals with three or fewer of these facilities (62 hospitals, 1294 patients) had higher mortality compared with those with four or five (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.85 [95% CI 2.58-5.75]; p&lt;0.0001), with excess mortality predominantly explained by a limited capacity to rescue following the development of major complications (63.0% vs 82.7%; OR 0.35 [0.23-0.53]; p&lt;0.0001). Across LMICs, improvements in hospital facilities would prevent one to three deaths for every 100 patients undergoing surgery for cancer.Interpretation Hospitals with higher levels of infrastructure and resources have better outcomes after cancer surgery, independent of country income. Without urgent strengthening of hospital infrastructure and resources, the reductions in cancer-associated mortality associated with improved access will not be realised

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality : methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

Background: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severity of ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-specific mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the five leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2)

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODErn), to generate cause fractions and cause specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NC Ds) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72.5-74.1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 186% (17.9-19.6), and injuries 8.0% (7.7-8.2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22.7% (21.5-23.9), representing an additional 7.61 million (7. 20-8.01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7.9% (7.08.8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 222% (20.0-24.0) and the death rate by 31.8% (30.1-33.3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2.3% (0-5-4-0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13.7% (12.2-15.1) to 57.9 deaths (55.9-59.2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118.0% (88.8-148.6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36.4% (32.2-40.6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33.6% (31.2-36.1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respirator}, infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990 neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality : methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

Background While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.Peer reviewe