Explaining divergent transformation paths in Tunisia and Egypt: The role of inter-elite trust

This article analyses why the political transformations following the Arab Spring took different paths in Egypt and Tunisia. Based on data from field interviews conducted between 2012 and 2018 as well as press analyses, we argue that a strong factor why Tunisia was more successful in establishing democracy is that it had a higher level of inter-elite trust. Moreover, we show that the establishment of inter-elite trust depends on the presence of functioning trust-building arenas during the transition and the early democratic consolidation period. To investigate the role of inter-elite trust, we develop a theoretical-analytical framework, drawing on Arab Spring literature, transition theory, scholarship on democratic consolidation, and research on trust

Salafisten im Maghreb: politische Ambitionen nach dem "Arabischen Frühling"

Salafismus war in akademischen Debatten lange Zeit nur in zwei Formen bekannt: als apolitischer Quietismus und als Jihadismus. Seit dem "Arabischen Frühling" begannen sich Salafisten jedoch auch politisch zu artikulieren und zu organisieren. In Ägypten erzielten sie 2012 sogar Wahlerfolge. Eher traditionelle islamistische Parteien sind daher in einigen arabischen Ländern von unerwarteter Seite unter Druck geraten. Im Maghreb genießen Islamisten politische Freiheiten, die auch den Salafisten zugute kommen könnten. Welche Auswirkungen hat dieser erweiterte Handlungsspielraum auf die politischen Bestrebungen von Salafisten in Marokko, Algerien und Tunesien

Sisis Ägypten - Vollendung der Revolution oder zurück auf Null?

Die für das Frühjahr 2015 angesetzten Parlamentswahlen wurden auf unbestimmte Zeit verschoben. Sie sollten die "Post-Mursi-Roadmap" beenden, die das Militär nach dem Sturz der Muslimbruderschaft 2013 ausgerufen hatte. Präsident Sisi will damit den Kurs seines Vorgängers Muhammad Mursi "korrigieren" und den demokratischen Übergang Ägyptens vollenden, den die Revolution von 2011 anstoßen wollte. Ist jedoch mit der Rückkehr eines Generals in den Präsidentenpalast eine Demokratisierung möglich? Im Juli 2013 setzte das ägyptische Militär nach Massenprotesten den demokratisch gewählten Präsidenten Mursi ab. Der General und spätere Präsident Abdelfattah as-Sisi erbat sich vom ägyptischen Volk eine Vollmacht, um den Terror im Land militärisch zu bekämpfen, der seit Mursis Sturz drastisch angestiegen war. Im Schatten des "Krieges gegen den Terror" ist die Demokratisierung bislang wenig vorangeschritten. Die geplanten Parlamentswahlen werden dies kaum ändern. Dennoch ist Sisi sehr populär und wird von großen Teilen der Bevölkerung als Versöhner von Staat und Volk gefeiert. Dabei basiert sein Legitimitätsanspruch zunehmend darauf, den Bürger als "Arm des Staates innerhalb der Gesellschaft" zu mobilisieren. Der Präsident hat allerdings nicht das gesamte ägyptische Volk hinter sich, auch im nicht islamistischen Lager wächst die Kritik an seinem Führungsstil. Will Sisi seine Unterstützer langfristig an sich binden, wird er vor allem ihren Wunsch nach wirtschaftlicher Entwicklung umsetzen müssen. Für die dafür benötigten ausländischen Investitionen versucht Sisi – nach außen hin –, sich dem Westen wieder anzunähern. Nach innen hin duldet er jedoch zunehmend antiwestliche Polemik, die auch von staatlichen Institutionen betrieben wird. Unterdessen setzt innerhalb der Muslimbruderschaft eine historische Umorientierung ein, die den Kreislauf aus Gewalt und Gegengewalt aller Wahrscheinlichkeit nach weiter vorantreiben wird

Präsidentschaftswahlen in Ägypten: Chancen und Herausforderungen für Mohammed Mursi

Am 24. Juni 2012 erklärte Faruk Sultan, der Vorsitzende der ägyptischen Wahlkommission, den Kandidaten der Muslimbruderschaft, Mohammed Mursi, zum Sieger der ersten Präsidentschaftswahl des Landes seit dem Sturz Hosni Mubaraks. Mohammed Mursi hatte die Stichwahl mit rund 52 Prozent der Stimmen gewonnen. Ahmed Shafik - der als letzter Premierminister unter Mubarak und ehemaliger Luftwaffengeneral als Kandidat der "alten Kräfte" galt -, erlangte 48 Prozent der Stimmen. Die Muslimbruderschaft stellt somit Ägyptens neuen Präsidenten und bekleidet erstmals in der 84-jährigen Geschichte der Organisation das höchste politische Amt des Landes. Daraus jedoch unmittelbare und drastische Veränderungen der politischen, sozialen und wirtschaftlichen Struktur Ägyptens zu folgern, scheint voreilig. Mursis Wahlsieg ist nicht ausschließlich als ein islamistischer Sieg zu werten. Er ist darüber hinaus als ein klares "Ja" zur Fortsetzung der „Revolution des 25. Januar“ und als Ablehnung einer Rückkehr zum alten System zu verstehen. Der Handlungsspielraum des neuen Präsidenten ist begrenzt. Seine Kompetenzen hat der Militärrat in der Verfassungserklärung vom 17. Juni 2012 deutlich eingeschränkt. In den kommenden Monaten wird Mursi jedoch versuchen, seine Kompetenzbeschneidung zu korrigieren. Zentraler Schauplatz des Ringens wird vor allem die Ausarbeitung der neuen Verfassung sein. Als größte Herausforderung für Mursi gilt derzeit die Herstellung eines Interessenausgleichs zwischen den drei politischen Lagern, die sich infolge der Präsidentschaftswahl formiert haben: a) das Lager der alten Kräfte, b) das Lager der Islamisten und c) das liberal orientierte Segment der Revolutionsbewegung der Jugend. Obwohl die Tatsache, dass die Stichwahl zwischen jeweils einem Kandidaten der Muslimbruderschaft und des alten Systems stattfand, die Kräftekonstellation der Mubarak-Ära widerspiegelt, deutet das unerwartet starke Abschneiden des linken Kandidaten Hamdeen Sabbahis auf Folgendes: Ein wachsender Teil der ägyptischen Bevölkerung scheint zunehmend auf der Suche nach einer nichtislamistischen Alternative zum alten Mubarak-Regime

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries(1,2). However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world(3) and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health(4,5). However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular riskchanged from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.Peer reviewe

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For schoolaged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesit

Heterogeneous contributions of change in population distribution of body mass index to change in obesity and underweight NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)

From 1985 to 2016, the prevalence of underweight decreased, and that of obesity and severe obesity increased, in most regions, with significant variation in the magnitude of these changes across regions. We investigated how much change in mean body mass index (BMI) explains changes in the prevalence of underweight, obesity, and severe obesity in different regions using data from 2896 population-based studies with 187 million participants. Changes in the prevalence of underweight and total obesity, and to a lesser extent severe obesity, are largely driven by shifts in the distribution of BMI, with smaller contributions from changes in the shape of the distribution. In East and Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, the underweight tail of the BMI distribution was left behind as the distribution shifted. There is a need for policies that address all forms of malnutrition by making healthy foods accessible and affordable, while restricting unhealthy foods through fiscal and regulatory restrictions

Wahlsieg der Islamisten in Ägypten : der Aufstieg der Muslimbrüder und der Salafisten

Annette Büch