Classifying Risk Uncertainty for Decision Making

Studies of NASA mishaps often reveal a flawed decision-making process – one that underestimates risk. In this paper we turn our attention from the risk itself to uncertainty about the risk. In particular, we look at how decision-making accounts for uncertainties about a risk’s likelihood of occurring and the consequence if it does occur. We propose a simple way of classifying risks according to these uncertainties. Then we use this classification scheme to gain insight into the flawed decision-making that contributed to the Challenger disaster and other NASA mishaps as well. We show how our risk classification scheme can improve decision-making and help avoid mishaps in the future

Time for a New Medical Liability Debate

No abstract available

Introeuction to IS Risk and Decision-Making Minitrack

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A Decision-Theoretic Approach to Measuring Security

The question “is this system secure?” is notoriously difficult to answer. The question implies that there is a system-wide property called “security,” which we can measure with some meaningful threshold of sufficiency. In this concept paper, we discuss the difficulty of measuring security sufficiency, either directly or through proxy such as the number of known vulnerabilities. We propose that the question can be better addressed by measuring confidence and risk in the decisions that depend on security. A novelty of this approach is that it integrates use of both subjective information (e.g. expert judgment) and empirical data. We investigate how this approach uses well-known methods from the discipline of decision-making under uncertainty to provide a more rigorous and useable measure of security sufficiency

The dose of hemodialysis and patient mortality

The dose of hemodialysis and patient mortality. The relationship between the delivered dose of hemodialysis and patient mortality remains somewhat controversial. Several observational studies have shown improved patient survival with higher levels of delivered dialysis dose. However, several other unmeasured variables, changes in patient mix or medical management may have impacted on this reported difference in mortality. The current study of a U.S. national sample of 2,311 patients from 347 dialysis units estimates the relationship of delivered hemodialysis dose to mortality, with a statistical adjustment for an extensive list of comorbidity/risk factors. Additionally this study investigated the existence of a dose beyond which more dialysis does not appear to lower mortality. We estimated patient survival using proportional hazards regression techniques, adjusting for 21 patient comorbidity/risk factors with stratification for nine Census regions. The patient sample was 2,311 Medicare hemodialysis patients treated with bicarbonate dialysate as of 12/31/90 who had end-stage renal disease for at least one year. Patient follow-up ranged between 1.5 and 2.4 years. The measurement of delivered therapy was based on two alternative measures of intradialytic urea reduction, the urea reduction ratio (URR) and Kt/V (with adjustment for urea generation and ultrafiltration). Hemodialysis patient mortality showed a strong and robust inverse correlation with delivered hemodialysis dose whether measured by Kt/V or by URR. Mortality risk was lower by 7% (P = 0.001) with each 0.1 higher level of delivered Kt/V. (Expressed in terms of URR, mortality was lower by 11% with each 5 percentage point higher URR; P = 0.001). Above a URR of 70% or a Kt/V of 1.3 these data did not provide statistical evidence of further reductions in mortality. In conclusion, the delivered dose of hemodialysis therapy is an important predictor of patient mortality. In a population of dialysis patients with a very high mortality rate, it appears that increasing the level of delivered therapy offers a practical and efficient means of lowering the mortality rate. The level of hemodialysis dose measured by URR or Kt/V beyond which the mortality rate does not continue to decrease, though not well defined with this study, appears to be above current levels of typical treatment of hemodialysis patients in the U.S

Tobacco use induces anti-apoptotic, proliferative patterns of gene expression in circulating leukocytes of Caucasian males

Abstract Background Strong epidemiologic evidence correlates tobacco use with a variety of serious adverse health effects, but the biological mechanisms that produce these effects remain elusive. Results We analyzed gene transcription data to identify expression spectra related to tobacco use in circulating leukocytes of 67 Caucasian male subjects. Levels of cotinine, a nicotine metabolite, were used as a surrogate marker for tobacco exposure. Significance Analysis of Microarray and Gene Set Analysis identified 109 genes in 16 gene sets whose transcription levels were differentially regulated by nicotine exposure. We subsequently analyzed this gene set by hyperclustering, a technique that allows the data to be clustered by both expression ratio and gene annotation (e.g. Gene Ontologies). Conclusion Our results demonstrate that tobacco use affects transcription of groups of genes that are involved in proliferation and apoptosis in circulating leukocytes. These transcriptional effects include a repertoire of transcriptional changes likely to increase the incidence of neoplasia through an altered expression of genes associated with transcription and signaling, interferon responses and repression of apoptotic pathways

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe