Anticipated climate and land-cover changes reveal refuge areas for Borneo's orang-utans

Habitat loss and climate change pose a double jeopardy for many threatened taxa, making the identification of optimal habitat for the future a conservation priority. Using a case study of the endangered Bornean orang-utan, we identify environmental refuges by integrating bioclimatic models with projected deforestation and oil-palm agriculture suitability from the 1950s to 2080s. We coupled a maximum entropy algorithm with information on habitat needs to predict suitable habitat for the present day and 1950s. We then projected to the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s in models incorporating only land-cover change, climate change or both processes combined. For future climate, we incorporated projections from four model and emission scenario combinations. For future land cover, we developed spatial deforestation predictions from 10 years of satellite data. Refuges were delineated as suitable forested habitats identified by all models that were also unsuitable for oil palm – a major threat to tropical biodiversity. Our analyses indicate that in 2010 up to 260 000 km2 of Borneo was suitable habitat within the core orang-utan range; an 18–24% reduction since the 1950s. Land-cover models predicted further decline of 15–30% by the 2080s. Although habitat extent under future climate conditions varied among projections, there was majority consensus, particularly in northeastern and western regions. Across projections habitat loss due to climate change alone averaged 63% by 2080, but 74% when also considering land-cover change. Refuge areas amounted to 2000–42 000 km2 depending on thresholds used, with 900–17 000 km2 outside the current species range. We demonstrate that efforts to halt deforestation could mediate some orang-utan habitat loss, but further decline of the most suitable areas is to be expected given projected changes to climate. Protected refuge areas could therefore become increasingly important for ongoing translocation efforts. We present an approach to help identify such areas for highly threatened species given environmental changes expected this century

Monitoring indirect impact of COVID-19 pandemic on services for cardiovascular diseases in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: To monitor hospital activity for presentation, diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular diseases during the COVID-19) pandemic to inform on indirect effects. METHODS: Retrospective serial cross-sectional study in nine UK hospitals using hospital activity data from 28 October 2019 (pre-COVID-19) to 10 May 2020 (pre-easing of lockdown) and for the same weeks during 2018-2019. We analysed aggregate data for selected cardiovascular diseases before and during the epidemic. We produced an online visualisation tool to enable near real-time monitoring of trends. RESULTS: Across nine hospitals, total admissions and emergency department (ED) attendances decreased after lockdown (23 March 2020) by 57.9% (57.1%-58.6%) and 52.9% (52.2%-53.5%), respectively, compared with the previous year. Activity for cardiac, cerebrovascular and other vascular conditions started to decline 1-2 weeks before lockdown and fell by 31%-88% after lockdown, with the greatest reductions observed for coronary artery bypass grafts, carotid endarterectomy, aortic aneurysm repair and peripheral arterial disease procedures. Compared with before the first UK COVID-19 (31 January 2020), activity declined across diseases and specialties between the first case and lockdown (total ED attendances relative reduction (RR) 0.94, 0.93-0.95; total hospital admissions RR 0.96, 0.95-0.97) and after lockdown (attendances RR 0.63, 0.62-0.64; admissions RR 0.59, 0.57-0.60). There was limited recovery towards usual levels of some activities from mid-April 2020. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial reductions in total and cardiovascular activities are likely to contribute to a major burden of indirect effects of the pandemic, suggesting they should be monitored and mitigated urgently

Media representations of the nouveaux riches and the cultural constitution of the global middle class

The article offers a distinctive account of how the nouveaux riches serve as an anchor for a range of upper- middle- class ambivalences and anxieties associated with transformations of capitalism and shifting global hierarchies. Reflecting the long- term association of middle- class symbolic boundaries with notions of refinement and respectability, it examines how the discourse of civility shapes how the nouveaux riches are represented to the upper middle class, identifying a number of recurrent media frames and narrative tropes related to vulgarity, civility, and order. The author argues that these representations play a central role in the reproduction of the Western professional middle class, and in the cultural constitution of a global middle class — professional, affluent, urban, and affiliated by an aesthetic regime of civility that transcends national borders. The findings underline the significance of representations of the new super- rich as devices through which the media accomplish the global circulation of an upper- middle- class repertoire of cultural capital, which is used both to police shifting class boundaries and to establish a legitimate preserve for univorous snobbishness

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p  90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care

Genetic mechanisms of critical illness in COVID-19.

Host-mediated lung inflammation is present1, and drives mortality2, in the critical illness caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Host genetic variants associated with critical illness may identify mechanistic targets for therapeutic development3. Here we report the results of the GenOMICC (Genetics Of Mortality In Critical Care) genome-wide association study in 2,244 critically ill patients with COVID-19 from 208 UK intensive care units. We have identified and replicated the following new genome-wide significant associations: on chromosome 12q24.13 (rs10735079, P = 1.65 × 10-8) in a gene cluster that encodes antiviral restriction enzyme activators (OAS1, OAS2 and OAS3); on chromosome 19p13.2 (rs74956615, P = 2.3 × 10-8) near the gene that encodes tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2); on chromosome 19p13.3 (rs2109069, P = 3.98 ×  10-12) within the gene that encodes dipeptidyl peptidase 9 (DPP9); and on chromosome 21q22.1 (rs2236757, P = 4.99 × 10-8) in the interferon receptor gene IFNAR2. We identified potential targets for repurposing of licensed medications: using Mendelian randomization, we found evidence that low expression of IFNAR2, or high expression of TYK2, are associated with life-threatening disease; and transcriptome-wide association in lung tissue revealed that high expression of the monocyte-macrophage chemotactic receptor CCR2 is associated with severe COVID-19. Our results identify robust genetic signals relating to key host antiviral defence mechanisms and mediators of inflammatory organ damage in COVID-19. Both mechanisms may be amenable to targeted treatment with existing drugs. However, large-scale randomized clinical trials will be essential before any change to clinical practice

Screening for hyperglycaemia in pregnancy : a rapid update for the National Screening Committee

Background Screening for gestational diabetes has long been a controversial topic. A previous Health Technology Assessment (HTA) report reviewed literature on screening for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and assessed the case for screening against the criteria set by the National Screening Committee. Objective To update a previous HTA report which reviewed the literature on screening for GDM by examining evidence that has emerged since that last report, including the Australian Carbohydrate Intolerance Study in Pregnant Women (ACHOIS), the Maternal and Fetal Medicine Units Network (MFMUN) trial and the Hyperglycemia and Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes (HAPO) study. To review data on recent trends in maternal age at birth and on the prevalence of overweight and obesity and the effect on prevalence of GDM. Data sources A systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature was carried out. The bibliographic databases used were MEDLINE (1996 to January 2009), EMBASE (1996 to December 2009), the Cochrane Library 2008 issue 4, the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination database and the Web of Science. Review methods For the review of treatment with oral drugs versus insulin, a full systematic review and meta-analysis was carried out. The results of the ACHOIS, MFMUN and HAPO studies were summarised and their implications discussed. Findings of a selection of other recent studies, relevant to the continuum issue, were summarised. Some recent screening studies were reviewed, including a particular focus on studies of screening earlier in pregnancy. Results The HAPO results showed a linear relationship between plasma glucose and adverse outcomes – there is a continuum of risk with no clear threshold which could divide women into those with gestational diabetes and those without. There was good evidence from trials and the meta-analysis that women who fail to control hyperglycaemic in pregnancy on lifestyle measures alone can be safely and effectively be treated with oral agents, metformin or glibenclamide, rather than going directly to insulin. Evidence showed few differences in results between glibenclamide and insulin and metformin and insulin. The exceptions were that there was less maternal hypoglycaemia with glibenclamide, but less neonatal hypoglycaemia and lower birthweight with insulin, and there was less maternal weight gain with metformin. The ACHOIS and MFMUN trials showed reductions in perinatal complications among infants born to mothers who were provided with more intensive dietary advice, blood glucose monitoring and insulin when required. The HAPO study demonstrated adverse outcomes over a much wider range of blood glucose (BG) than the traditional definition of GDM. In the HAPO study, no one measure of BG came out as being clearly the best, although fasting plasma glucose (FPG) was as good as any, and had advantages of being more convenient than an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), but correlations between fasting and post-load levels were quite poor. Two screening strategies dominated; (1) selection by the American Diabetes Association criteria followed by the 75-g OGTT [incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) £3678], and (2) selection by high-risk ethnicity followed by the 75-g OGTT (ICER £21,739). Studies indicated that costs are about £1833 higher for pregnancies complicated by gestational diabetes, suggesting that prevention would be worthwhile. Limitations Not all of the HAPO results have been published, and none of the reviewed economic studies resolved the most difficult issue – at what level of BG does intervention become cost-effective? Conclusions The evidence base has improved since the last HTA review in 2002. There is now good evidence for treatment of oral drugs instead of insulin and it looks increasingly as if FPG could be the test of choice. However some key uncertainties remain to be resolved, which can be done by further analysis of the already collected HAPO data and by using the UK model used in developing the NICE guidelines to assess the cost-effectiveness of intervention in each of the seven HAPO categories