From medicine to butterflies and back again.

My research focuses on the current impacts of climate change on wildlife, from field-based work on butterflies to synthetic analyses of global impacts on a broad range of species across terrestrial and marine biomes. I work actively with governmental agencies and NGOs to help develop conservation assessment and planning tools aimed at preserving biodiversity in the face of climate change

Plants and climate change: complexities and surprises.

BACKGROUND: Anthropogenic climate change (ACC) will influence all aspects of plant biology over coming decades. Many changes in wild species have already been well-documented as a result of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations, warming climate and changing precipitation regimes. A wealth of available data has allowed the use of meta-analyses to examine plant-climate interactions on more sophisticated levels than before. These analyses have revealed major differences in plant response among groups, e.g. with respect to functional traits, taxonomy, life-history and provenance. Interestingly, these meta-analyses have also exposed unexpected mismatches between theory, experimental, and observational studies. SCOPE: We reviewed the literature on species' responses to ACC, finding ∼42 % of 4000 species studied globally are plants (primarily terrestrial). We review impacts on phenology, distributions, ecophysiology, regeneration biology, plant-plant and plant-herbivore interactions, and the roles of plasticity and evolution. We focused on apparent deviations from expectation, and highlighted cases where more sophisticated analyses revealed that unexpected changes were, in fact, responses to ACC. CONCLUSIONS: We found that conventionally expected responses are generally well-understood, and that it is the aberrant responses that are now yielding greater insight into current and possible future impacts of ACC. We argue that inconclusive, unexpected, or counter-intuitive results should be embraced in order to understand apparent disconnects between theory, prediction, and observation. We highlight prime examples from the collection of papers in this Special Issue, as well as general literature. We found use of plant functional groupings/traits had mixed success, but that some underutilized approaches, such as Grime's C/S/R strategies, when incorporated, have improved understanding of observed responses. Despite inherent difficulties, we highlight the need for ecologists to conduct community-level experiments in systems that replicate multiple aspects of ACC. Specifically, we call for development of coordinating experiments across networks of field sites, both natural and man-made

Geographic mosaics of phenology, host preference, adult size and microhabitat choice predict butterfly resilience to climate warming

The climate-sensitive butterfly Euphydryas editha exhibited interpopulation variation in both phenology and egg placement, exposing individuals to diverse thermal environments. We measured 'eggspace' temperatures adjacent to natural egg clutches in populations distributed across a range of latitudes (36°8'-44°6') and altitudes (213-3171 m). Eggs laid > 50 cm above the ground averaged 3.1°C cooler than ambient air at 1 m height, while eggs at < 1 cm height averaged 15.5°C hotter than ambient, ranging up to 47°C. Because of differences in egg height, eggs at 3171 m elevation and 20.6°C ambient air experienced mean eggspace temperatures 7°C hotter than those at 213 m elevation and ambient 33.3°C. Experimental eggs survived for one hour at 45°C but were killed by 48°C. Eggs laid low, by positively geotactic butterflies, risked thermal stress. However, at populations where eggs were laid lowest, higher oviposition would have incurred incidental predation from grazers. Interpopulation variation in phenology influenced thermal environment and buffered exposure to thermal stress. At sites with hotter July temperatures, the single annual flight/oviposition period was advanced such that eggs were laid on earlier dates, with cooler ambient temperatures. The insects possessed two mechanisms for advancing egg phenology; they could advance timing of larval diapause-breaking and/or shorten the life cycle by becoming smaller adults. Mean weight of newly-eclosed females varied among populations from 92 to 285 mg, suggesting that variable adult size did influence phenology. Possible options for in situ mitigation of thermal stress include further advancing phenology and raising egg height. We argue that these options exist, as evidenced by current variation in these traits and by failure of E. editha to conform to restrictive biogeographic constraints, such as the expectation that populations at equatorial and poleward range limits be confined to higher and lower elevations, respectively. This optimistic example shows how complex local adaptation can generate resilience to climate warming

A climate for contemporary evolution

A new study of divergence in freshwater fish provides strong evidence of rapid, temperature-mediated adaptation. This study is particularly important in the ongoing debate over the extent and significance of evolutionary response to climate change because divergence has occurred in relatively few generations in spite of ongoing gene flow and in the aftermath of a significant genetic bottleneck, factors that have previously been considered obstacles to evolution. Climate change may thus be more likely to foster contemporary evolutionary responses than has been anticipated, and I argue here for the importance of investigating their possible occurrence

Endangered Quino checkerspot butterfly and climate change: Short-term success but long-term vulnerability?

The butterfly Euphydryas editha is known to be vulnerable to climate events that exacerbate natural phenological asynchrony between insect and hosts. In prior work, populations of E. editha have been more persistent at high latitudes and high elevations than in the south and at low elevations, consistent with response to observed warming climate. However, poleward range shifts by the endangered subspecies E. e. quino are blocked by urbanization and range shifts to higher elevation may require host shifts. Prior studies were inconclusive as to whether elevational and host shifts were already occurring. Here, we re-evaluate this scenario with new evidence from molecular genetics, host-choice behaviour and field recording of butterfly distribution. We found a statistically significant upward shift in population distribution since 2009. Insects in the expanding region were neither genomic outliers within Quino nor specifically adapted to their principal local host genus, Collinsia. These diverse data collectively support the hypothesis that an elevational range expansion is already in progress, accompanied and facilitated by a shift of principal host from Plantago to Collinsia. Quino appears resilient to warming climate. However, projections indicate that most or all of Quino’s current range in the USA, including the new high elevation expansion, will become uninhabitable. Our most frequent projected future range (circa 2050) is c. 400 km northward from current populations, hence conservation of Quino may eventually require assisted colonization. For now, Critical Habitat (sensu Endangered Species Act) has been designated at sites around the new upper elevational limit that were not known to be occupied. Designating Critical Habitat outside the historic range is a pioneering response to climate change. This politically challenging, non-traditional, climate change-oriented conservation effort exemplifies flexible thinking needed for species vulnerable to climate change

Using Ecological Modelling Tools to Inform Policy Makers of Potential Changes in Crop Distribution: An Example with Cacao Crops in Latin America

International audienceSpecies distribution models (SDM) is a powerful simulation tool that has become widely used in the ecological and agronomical sciences. The use of easily available presence data, global downscaled climate layers and software that can run on desktop computer has contributed to their popularity. The most used application is based on maximum entropy models that fit presence data to a series of environmental descriptors. SDM can be used to predict crop distribution under future conditions but the level of uncertainty of those models can be very high. The best use of these models is to be used as generators of hypothesis to be combined with other type of analysis

Delayed chilling appears to counteract flowering advances of apricot in southern UK

Temperatures are rising across the globe, and the UK is no exception. Spring phenology of perennial fruit crops is to a large extent determined by temperature during effective chilling (endo-dormancy) and heat accumulation (eco-dormancy) periods. We used the apricot flowering records of the UK National Fruit Collections (NFC) to determine the influence of temperature trends over recent decades (1960 to 2014) on apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.) flowering time. Using Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression, we determined the respective periods for calculating chill and heat accumulation. Results suggested intervals between September 27th and February 26th and between December 31st and April 12th as the effective chilling and warming periods, respectively. Flowering time was correlated with temperature during both periods, with warming during chilling corresponding to flowering delays by 4.82 d°C-1, while warming during heat accumulation was associated with bloom advances by 9.85 d°C-1. Heat accumulation started after accumulating 62.7 ± 5.6 Chill Portions, and flowering occurred after a further 3744 ± 1538 Growing Degree Hours (above a base temperature of 4°C, with optimal growth at 26°C). When examining the time series, the increase in temperature during the chilling period did not appear to decrease overall chill accumulation during the chilling period but to delay the onset of chill accumulation and the completion of the the average chill accumulation necessary to start heat accumulation. The resulting delay in heat responsiveness appeared to weaken the phenology-advancing effect of spring warming. These processes may explain why apricot flowering time remained relatively unchanged despite significant temperature increases. A consequence of this may be a reduction of frost risk for early flowering crops such as apricot in the UK

Morphological and dietary responses of chipmunks to a century of climate change.

Predicting how individual taxa will respond to climatic change is challenging, in part because the impacts of environmental conditions can vary markedly, even among closely related species. Studies of chipmunks (Tamias spp.) in Yosemite National Park provide an important opportunity to explore the reasons for this variation in response. While the alpine chipmunk (T.&nbsp;alpinus) has undergone a significant elevational range contraction over the past century, the congeneric and partially sympatric lodgepole chipmunk (T.&nbsp;speciosus) has not experienced an elevational range shift during this period. As a first step toward identifying the factors underlying this difference in response, we examined evidence for dietary changes and changes in cranial morphology in these species over the past century. Stable isotope analyses of fur samples from modern and historical museum specimens of these species collected at the same localities indicated that signatures of dietary change were more pronounced in T.&nbsp;alpinus, although diet breadth did not differ consistently between the study species. Morphometric analyses of crania from these specimens revealed significant changes in cranial shape for T.&nbsp;alpinus, with less pronounced changes in shape for T.&nbsp;speciosus; evidence of selection on skull morphology was detected for T.&nbsp;alpinus, but not for T.&nbsp;speciosus. These results are consistent with growing evidence that T.&nbsp;alpinus is generally more responsive to environmental change than T.&nbsp;speciosus, but emphasize the complex and often geographically variable nature of such responses. Accordingly, future studies that make use of the taxonomically and spatially integrative approach employed here may prove particularly informative regarding relationships between environmental conditions, range changes, and patterns of phenotypic variation

An introduction to Trends in Extreme Weather and Climate Events: Observations, Socioeconomic Impacts, Terrestrial Ecological Impacts, and Model Projections

Weather and climatic extremes can have serious and damaging effects on human society and infrastructure as well as on ecosystems and wildlife. Thus, they are usually the main focus of attention of the news media in reports on climate. There are some indications from observations concerning how climatic extremes may have changed in the past. Climate models show how they could change in the future either due to natural climate fluctuations or under conditions of greenhouse gas-induced warming. These observed and modeled changes relate directly to the understanding of socioeconomic and ecological impacts related to extremes.Integrative Biolog