Predictability of the large relaxations in a cellular automaton model

A simple one-dimensional cellular automaton model with threshold dynamics is introduced. The cumulative distribution of the size of the relaxations is analytically computed and behaves as a power law with an exponent equal to -1. This coincides with the phenomenological Gutenberg-Richter behavior observed in Seismology for the cumulative statistics of earthquakes at the regional or global scale. The key point of the model is the zero-load state of the system after the occurrence of any relaxation, no matter what its size. This leads to an equipartition of probability between all possible load configurations in the system during the successive loading cycles. Each cycle ends with the occurrence of the greatest -or characteristic- relaxation in the system. The duration of the cycles in the model is statistically distributed with a coefficient of variation ranging from 0.5 to 1. The predictability of the characteristic relaxations is evaluated by means of error diagrams. This model illustrates the value of taking into account the refractory periods to obtain a considerable gain in the quality of the predictions.Comment: A note has been added in which it is discussed the possible application of the model to describe some properties of the dynamics of microtubules, growth and catastrophe. It has been also added the Acknowledgments that were forgotten in the first versio

Acute kidney injury and extrarenal organ dysfunction - A randomized experimental study

Indexación: Web of Science; ScieloIntroducción: La insuficiencia renal aguda (IRA) es una enfermedad grave y causante de disfunciones de órganos distantes que incrementan su mortalidad. Objetivo: Identificar disfunción hemodinámica y respiratoria gatillada por IRA en un modelo pediátrico animal de isquemia-reperfusión renal. Método: Doce cerdos anestesiados (11,9 ± 1,0 kg). En seis animales se indujo lesión renal bilateral por isquemia-reperfusión: 45 min de isquemia y 240 min de reperfusión, mientras que los seis animales restantes fueron grupo control. En condiciones basales y posterior a lesión renal se realizó monitorización hemodinámica convencional y termodilución transpulmonar. Paralelamente se midió gasometría arterial y análisis de mecánica pulmonar. Resultados: Hubo un incremento de la precarga volumétrica en 29% (221 ± 22 ml/m2 vs 286 ± 16 ml/m2, p = 0,04) y de la presión arterial media en 58% (71 ± 6 mmHg vs 112 ± 17 mmHg, p = 0,04) respecto a controles, sin cambios en frecuencia cardíaca, presión venosa central ni gasto cardíaco. Además ocurrió un aumento del agua extravascular pulmonar en 86% (7,6 ± 0,6 ml/kg vs 14,1 ± 1,4 ml/kg, p = 0,02), sin cambios en intercambio gaseoso ni mecánica pulmonar. Simultáneamente hubo un leve deterioro de la creatinina sérica (1,12 ± 0,07 mg/dL vs 1,45 ± 0,10 mg/dL, p = 0,03). Discusión: En este modelo experimental se pudo apreciar el desarrollo temprano de disfunción hemodinámica y pulmonar. Se evidenció un aumento de la precarga volumétrica y de la presión arterial, asociado a un incremento substancial del agua extravascular pulmonar. Creemos que es fundamental monitorizar de forma seriada la función hemodinámica y respiratoria en sujetos con una lesión renal aguda, aún sin una IRA urémica.Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a serious disease that can cause distant organ injuries and is associated with high mortality rates. Objective: To identify the hemodynamic and respiratory dysfunction triggered by AKI, in an animal model of renal ischemia-reperfusion. Method: Twelve anesthetized juvenile pigs (11.9 ± 1.0 kg). Six animals underwent ischemia/reperfusion-induced AKI: 45 min of ischemia and 240 minutes of reperfusion, while the remaining six animals were the control group. In basal conditions and after AKI, a conventional hemodynamic monitoring and transpulmonary thermodilution were performed. At the same time, arterial blood gases and lung mechanics were measured. Results: There was a 29% increase in volumetric preload (221 ± 22 ml/m2 vs 286 ± 16 ml/m2, p = 0.04) and a 58% mean arterial pressure increase (71 ± 6 mmHg vs 112 ± 17 mmHg, p = 0.04) compared to controls, without changes in heart rate, central venous pressure and cardiac output. In addition, an increase of 86% in extravascular lung water (7.6 ± 0.6 ml/kg vs 14.1 ± 1.4 ml/ kg, p = 0.02) was reported, without changes in gas exchange and lung mechanics. Simultaneously, a slight increase in serum creatinine (1.12 ± 0.07 mg/dl vs 1.45 ± 0.10 mg/dl, p = 0.03) was described. Discussion: An early development of hemodynamic and pulmonary dysfunction was observed in this experimental reperfusion model. An increase in volumetric preload and blood pressure associated with a substantial increase in the extravascular lung water were also reported. It is essential serially monitor the hemodynamic and respiratory functions in AKI, including nonuremic subjects.http://www.scielo.cl/pdf/rcp/v84n3/art04.pd

Aperiodicity in one-way Markov cycles and repeat times of large earthquakes in faults

A common use of Markov Chains is the simulation of the seismic cycle in a fault, i.e. as a renewal model for the repetition of its characteristic earthquakes. This representation is consistent with Reid's elastic rebound theory. Here it is proved that in {\it any} one-way Markov cycle, the aperiodicity of the corresponding distribution of cycle lengths is always lower than one. This fact concurs with observations of large earthquakes in faults all over the world

Allergic reactions to tick saliva components in zebrafish model

[Background]: Alpha-Gal syndrome (AGS) is a tick-borne food allergy caused by IgE antibodies against the glycan galactose-alpha-1,3-galactose (α-Gal) present in glycoproteins and glycolipids from mammalian meat. To advance in the diagnosis and treatment of AGS, further research is needed to unravel the molecular and immune mechanisms underlying this syndrome. The objective of this study is the characterization of tick salivary components and proteins with and without α-Gal modifications involved in modulating human immune response against this carbohydrate.[Methods]: Protein and α-Gal content were determined in tick saliva components, and proteins were identified by proteomics analysis of tick saliva fractions. Pathophysiological changes were recorded in the zebrafish (Danio rerio) model after exposure to distinct Ixodes ricinus tick salivary components. Serum samples were collected from zebrafish at day 8 of exposure to determine anti-α-Gal, anti-glycan, and anti-tick saliva protein IgM antibody titers by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA).[Results]: Zebrafish treated with tick saliva and saliva protein fractions combined with non-protein fractions demonstrated significantly higher incidence of hemorrhagic type allergic reactions, abnormal behavioral patterns, or mortality when compared to the phosphate-buffered saline (PBS)-treated control group. The main tick salivary proteins identified in these fractions with possible functional implication in AGS were the secreted protein B7P208-salivary antigen p23 and metalloproteases. Anti-α-Gal and anti-tick salivary gland IgM antibody titers were significantly higher in distinct saliva protein fractions and deglycosylated saliva group when compared with PBS-treated controls. Anti-glycan antibodies showed group-related profiles.[Conclusions]: Results support the hypothesis that tick salivary biomolecules with and without α-Gal modifications are involved in modulating immune response against this carbohydrate.This study was supported by Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación/Agencia Estatal de Investigación MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033, Spain and EU-FEDER (Grant BIOGAL PID2020-116761GB-I00). M. Contreras was funded by the Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades, Spain, grant IJC2020-042710-I. R. Vaz-Rodrigues was supported by a doctoral contract (2022/20675), from Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Spain, co-financed by the European Social Fund (ESF). L. Mazuecos was supported by UCLM co-financed by ESF, post-doctoral grant 2021/32002). E. Ferreras-Colino was funded by UCLM co-financed by ESF, doctoral grant 2020/3836.Peer reviewe

Geoeconomic variations in epidemiology, ventilation management, and outcomes in invasively ventilated intensive care unit patients without acute respiratory distress syndrome: a pooled analysis of four observational studies

Background: Geoeconomic variations in epidemiology, the practice of ventilation, and outcome in invasively ventilated intensive care unit (ICU) patients without acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) remain unexplored. In this analysis we aim to address these gaps using individual patient data of four large observational studies. Methods: In this pooled analysis we harmonised individual patient data from the ERICC, LUNG SAFE, PRoVENT, and PRoVENT-iMiC prospective observational studies, which were conducted from June, 2011, to December, 2018, in 534 ICUs in 54 countries. We used the 2016 World Bank classification to define two geoeconomic regions: middle-income countries (MICs) and high-income countries (HICs). ARDS was defined according to the Berlin criteria. Descriptive statistics were used to compare patients in MICs versus HICs. The primary outcome was the use of low tidal volume ventilation (LTVV) for the first 3 days of mechanical ventilation. Secondary outcomes were key ventilation parameters (tidal volume size, positive end-expiratory pressure, fraction of inspired oxygen, peak pressure, plateau pressure, driving pressure, and respiratory rate), patient characteristics, the risk for and actual development of acute respiratory distress syndrome after the first day of ventilation, duration of ventilation, ICU length of stay, and ICU mortality. Findings: Of the 7608 patients included in the original studies, this analysis included 3852 patients without ARDS, of whom 2345 were from MICs and 1507 were from HICs. Patients in MICs were younger, shorter and with a slightly lower body-mass index, more often had diabetes and active cancer, but less often chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and heart failure than patients from HICs. Sequential organ failure assessment scores were similar in MICs and HICs. Use of LTVV in MICs and HICs was comparable (42\ub74% vs 44\ub72%; absolute difference \u20131\ub769 [\u20139\ub758 to 6\ub711] p=0\ub767; data available in 3174 [82%] of 3852 patients). The median applied positive end expiratory pressure was lower in MICs than in HICs (5 [IQR 5\u20138] vs 6 [5\u20138] cm H2O; p=0\ub70011). ICU mortality was higher in MICs than in HICs (30\ub75% vs 19\ub79%; p=0\ub70004; adjusted effect 16\ub741% [95% CI 9\ub752\u201323\ub752]; p<0\ub70001) and was inversely associated with gross domestic product (adjusted odds ratio for a US$10 000 increase per capita 0\ub780 [95% CI 0\ub775\u20130\ub786]; p<0\ub70001). Interpretation: Despite similar disease severity and ventilation management, ICU mortality in patients without ARDS is higher in MICs than in HICs, with a strong association with country-level economic status. Funding: No funding

Clonal chromosomal mosaicism and loss of chromosome Y in elderly men increase vulnerability for SARS-CoV-2

The pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19) had an estimated overall case fatality ratio of 1.38% (pre-vaccination), being 53% higher in males and increasing exponentially with age. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, we found 133 cases (1.42%) with detectable clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations (mCA) and 226 males (5.08%) with acquired loss of chromosome Y (LOY). Individuals with clonal mosaic events (mCA and/or LOY) showed a 54% increase in the risk of COVID-19 lethality. LOY is associated with transcriptomic biomarkers of immune dysfunction, pro-coagulation activity and cardiovascular risk. Interferon-induced genes involved in the initial immune response to SARS-CoV-2 are also down-regulated in LOY. Thus, mCA and LOY underlie at least part of the sex-biased severity and mortality of COVID-19 in aging patients. Given its potential therapeutic and prognostic relevance, evaluation of clonal mosaicism should be implemented as biomarker of COVID-19 severity in elderly people. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, individuals with clonal mosaic events (clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations and/or loss of chromosome Y) showed an increased risk of COVID-19 lethality

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For schoolaged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesit

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks