Distinctive Responsiveness to Stromal Signaling Accompanies Histologic Grade Programming of Cancer Cells

Whether stromal components facilitate growth, invasion, and dissemination of cancer cells or suppress neoplastic lesions from further malignant progression is a continuing conundrum in tumor biology. Conceptualizing a dynamic picture of tumorigenesis is complicated by inter-individual heterogeneity. In the post genomic era, unraveling such complexity remains a challenge for the cancer biologist. Towards establishing a functional association between cellular crosstalk and differential cancer aggressiveness, we identified a signature of malignant breast epithelial response to stromal signaling. Proximity to fibroblasts resulted in gene transcript alterations of >2-fold for 107 probes, collectively designated as Fibroblast Triggered Gene Expression in Tumor (FTExT). The hazard ratio predicted by the FTExT classifier for distant relapse in patients with intermediate and high grade breast tumors was significant compared to routine clinical variables (dataset 1, n = 258, HR – 2.11, 95% CI 1.17–3.80, p-value 0.01; dataset 2, n = 171, HR - 3.07, 95% CI 1.21–7.83, p-value 0.01). Biofunctions represented by FTExT included inflammatory signaling, free radical scavenging, cell death, and cell proliferation. Unlike genes of the ‘proliferation cluster’, which are overexpressed in aggressive primary tumors, FTExT genes were uniquely repressed in such cases. As proof of concept for our correlative findings, which link stromal-epithelial crosstalk and tumor behavior, we show a distinctive differential in stromal impact on prognosis-defining functional endpoints of cell cycle progression, and resistance to therapy-induced growth arrest and apoptosis in low vs. high grade cancer cells. Our experimental data thus reveal aspects of ‘paracrine cooperativity’ that are exclusively contingent upon the histopathologically defined grade of interacting tumor epithelium, and demonstrate that epithelial responsiveness to the tumor microenvironment is a deterministic factor underlying clinical outcome. In this light, early attenuation of epithelial-stromal crosstalk could improve the management of cases prone to be clinically challenging

Determining virological suppression and resuppression by point-of-care viral load testing in a HIV care setting in sub-Saharan Africa

Background This prospective pilot study explored same-day point-of-care viral load testing in a setting in Ghana that has yet to implement virological monitoring of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Methods Consecutive patients accessing outpatient care while on ART underwent HIV-1 RNA quantification by Xpert. Those with viraemia at the first measurement (T0) received immediate adherence counselling and were reassessed 8 weeks later (T1). Predictors of virological status were determined by logistic regression analysis. Drug resistance-associated mutations (RAMs) were detected by Sanger sequencing. Findings At T0, participants had received treatment for a median of 8·9 years; 297/333 (89·2%) were on NNRTI-based ART. The viral load was ≥40 copies/mL in 164/333 (49·2%) patients and ≥1000 copies/mL in 71/333 (21·3%). In the latter group, 50/65 (76·9%) and 55/65 (84·6%) harboured NRTI and NNRTI RAMs, respectively, and 27/65 (41·5%) had ≥1 tenofovir RAM. Among 150/164 (91·5%) viraemic patients that reattended at T1, 32/150 (21·3%) showed resuppression <40 copies/mL, comprising 1/65 (1·5%) subjects with T0 viral load ≥1000 copies/mL and 31/85 (36·5%) subjects with lower levels. A T0 viral load ≥1000 copies/mL and detection of RAMs predicted ongoing T1 viraemia independently of self-reported adherence levels. Among participants with T0 viral load ≥1000 copies/mL, 23/65 (35·4%) showed resuppression <1000 copies/mL; the response was more likely among those with higher adherence levels and no RAMs. Interpretation Same-day point-of-care viral load testing was feasible and revealed poor virological control and suboptimal resuppression rates despite adherence counselling. Controlled studies should determine optimal triaging modalities for same-day versus deferred viral load testing. Funding University of Liverpool, South Tees Infectious Diseases Research Fun

Efficacy and safety of carbon dioxide insufflation for brain protection for patients undergoing planned left-sided open heart valve surgery:protocol for a multicentre, placebo-controlled, blinded, randomised controlled trial (the CO2 Study)

Introduction: Brain injury is common following open heart valve surgery. Carbon dioxide insufflation (CDI) has been proposed to reduce the incidence of brain injury by reducing the number of air microemboli entering the bloodstream in surgery. The CO2 Study will evaluate the efficacy and safety of CDI in patients undergoing planned left-sided open heart valve surgery. Methods and analysis: The CO2 Study is a multicentre, blinded, placebo-controlled, randomised controlled trial. Seven-hundred and four patients aged 50 years and over undergoing planned left-sided heart valve surgery will be recruited to the study, from at least eight UK National Health Service hospitals, and randomised in a 1:1 ratio to receive CDI or medical air insufflation (placebo) in addition to standard de-airing. Insufflation will be delivered at a flow rate of 5 L/min from before the initiation of cardiopulmonary bypass until 10 min after cardiopulmonary bypass weaning. Participants will be followed up until 3 months post-surgery. The primary outcome is acute ischaemic brain injury within 10 days post-surgery based on new brain lesions identified with diffusion-weighted MRI or clinical evidence of permanent brain injury according to the current definition of stroke. Ethics and dissemination: The study was approved by the East Midlands–Nottingham 2 Research Ethics Committee in June 2020 and the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency in May 2020. All participants will provide written informed consent prior to undertaking any study assessments. Consent will be obtained by the principal investigator or a delegated member of the research team who has been trained in the study and undergone Good Clinical Practice training. Results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and presentations at national and international meetings. Study participants will be informed of results through study notifications and patient organisations. Trial registration number: ISRCTN30671536

Cost-effectiveness of self-management of blood pressure in hypertensive patients over 70 years with suboptimal control and established cardiovascular disease or additional cardiovascular risk diseases (TASMIN-SR).

BACKGROUND: A previous economic analysis of self-management, that is, self-monitoring with self-titration of antihypertensive medication evaluated cost-effectiveness among patients with uncomplicated hypertension. This study considered cost-effectiveness of self-management in those with raised blood pressure plus diabetes, chronic kidney disease and/or previous cardiovascular disease. DESIGN AND METHODS: A Markov model-based economic evaluation was undertaken to estimate the long-term cost-effectiveness of self-management of blood pressure in a cohort of 70-year-old 'high risk' patients, compared with usual care. The model used the results of the TASMIN-SR trial. A cost-utility analysis was undertaken from a UK health and social care perspective, taking into account lifetime costs of treatment, cardiovascular events and quality adjusted life years. A subgroup analysis ran the model separately for men and women. Deterministic sensitivity analyses examined the effect of different time horizons and reduced effectiveness of self-management. RESULTS: Base-case results indicated that self-management was cost-effective compared with usual care, resulting in more quality adjusted life years (0.21) and cost savings (-£830) per patient. There was a 99% chance of the intervention being cost-effective at a willingness to pay threshold of £20,000 per quality adjusted life year gained. Similar results were found for separate cohorts of men and women. The results were robust to sensitivity analyses, provided that the blood pressure lowering effect of self-management was maintained for more than a year. CONCLUSION: Self-management of blood pressure in high-risk people with poorly controlled hypertension not only reduces blood pressure, compared with usual care, but also represents a cost-effective use of healthcare resources.This paper presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) under its Programme Grants for Applied Research Programme (Grant Reference Number RP-PG 0606-1153) and by the NIHR National School of Primary Care Research (NSPCR 16). The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health. Service support costs were administered through the Primary Care Research Network and collaborating Comprehensive Local Research Networks. Prof McManus was supported by NIHR Career Development and Professional Fellowships, Professors Hobbs, Little and Williams are NIHR senior investigators. Professor McManus and Hobbs receive support from the NIHR CLAHRC Oxford. Professor Hobbs also receives support from the NIHR School for Primary Care Research and the NIHR Oxford BRC.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from SAGE via https://doi.org/10.1177/204748731561878

Sustained proliferation in cancer: mechanisms and novel therapeutic targets

Proliferation is an important part of cancer development and progression. This is manifest by altered expression and/or activity of cell cycle related proteins. Constitutive activation of many signal transduction pathways also stimulates cell growth. Early steps in tumor development are associated with a fibrogenic response and the development of a hypoxic environment which favors the survival and proliferation of cancer stem cells. Part of the survival strategy of cancer stem cells may manifested by alterations in cell metabolism. Once tumors appear, growth and metastasis may be supported by overproduction of appropriate hormones (in hormonally dependent cancers), by promoting angiogenesis, by undergoing epithelial to mesenchymal transition, by triggering autophagy, and by taking cues from surrounding stromal cells. A number of natural compounds (e.g., curcumin, resveratrol, indole-3-carbinol, brassinin, sulforaphane, epigallocatechin-3-gallate, genistein, ellagitannins, lycopene and quercetin) have been found to inhibit one or more pathways that contribute to proliferation (e.g., hypoxia inducible factor 1, nuclear factor kappa B, phosphoinositide 3 kinase/Akt, insulin-like growth factor receptor 1, Wnt, cell cycle associated proteins, as well as androgen and estrogen receptor signaling). These data, in combination with bioinformatics analyses, will be very important for identifying signaling pathways and molecular targets that may provide early diagnostic markers and/or critical targets for the development of new drugs or drug combinations that block tumor formation and progression

Global, regional, and national cancer incidence, mortality, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-Adjusted life-years for 29 cancer groups, 1990 to 2017 : A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study

Importance: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data. Objective: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning. Evidence Review: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-Adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence. Findings: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs). Conclusions and Relevance: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care. © 2019 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017 : results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Correction:Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. Methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.Peer reviewe

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation