Identifying a Forward-Looking Monetary Policy in an Open Economy

I identify a forward-looking monetary policy function in a structural VAR model by using forecasts of macroeconomic variables, in addition to the realized variables used in a standard VAR. Both impulse responses and variance decompositions of the monetary policy variable of this forecast-augmented VAR model suggest that forecasted variables play a greater role than realized variables in a central bank’s policy decisions. I also find that a contractionary policy shock instantaneously increases the market interest rate as well as the forecast of the market interest rate. The policy shock also appreciates both the British pound and the forecast of the pound on impact. On the other hand, the policy shock lowers expected inflation immediately, but affects realized inflation with a lag. When I estimate the standard VAR model encompassed in the forecast-augmented model, I find that a contractionary policy shock raises the inflation rate and leads to a gradual appreciation of the domestic currency. However, the inclusion of inflation expectations reverses this puzzling response of the inflation rate, and the inclusion of both the market interest rate forecast and the exchange rate forecast removes the delayed overshooting response of the exchange rate. These findings suggest that a standard VAR may incorrectly identify the monetary policy function.

Monetary Transmission Mechanism in a Small Open Economy: A Bayesian Structural VAR Approach

This paper develops an open-economy Bayesian structural VAR model for Canada in order to estimate the effects of monetary policy shocks, using the overnight target rate as the policy instrument. I allow the policy variable and the financial variables of the model to interact simultaneously with each other and with a number of other home and foreign variables. When I estimate this over-identified VAR model, I find that the policy shock transmits to real output through both the interest rate and exchange rate channels, and the shock does not induce a departure from uncovered interest rate parity. I also find that the impulse response of the monetary aggregate, M1, does not exactly follow the impulse response of the target rate. Finally, I find that Canadian variables significantly responds to the US federal funds rate shock, and external shocks are an important source of Canadian output fluctuations.Monetary policy, structural VAR, block exogeneity, impulse response

Synthesis, Characterization, and Properties of Mononuclear and Dinuclear Ruthenium(II) Complexes Containing Phenanthroline and Chlorophenanthroline

The study of photophysical and photochemical properties of ruthenium complexes is of great interest for fundamental practical reasons. Ruthenium complexes have been investigated for use in artificial photosynthesis. This paper deals with the synthesis and spectroscopic investigation of custom-designed ruthenium complexes containing phenanthroline and chloro-phenanthroline ligands. These complexes maybe useful for biological electron-transfer studies. The heteroleptic ruthenium monomer complex Ru(phen)2(Cl-phen) (where phen = 1,10-phenanthroline and Cl-phen=5-chloro-1,10-phenanthroline) was prepared in a two-step procedure previously developed in our laboratory. This monomer complex was used to prepare the ruthenium homometallic dimer complex, (phen)2Ru(phen-phen)Ru(phen)2, by utilizing the Ni-catalyzed coupling reaction. Both complexes were purified by extensive column chromatography. The identity and the integrity of the monomer complex were confirmed by elemental analysis. The calculated and the experimental values for the elemental analysis were in good agreement for the monomer complex. UV/Vis absorption spectroscopy, emission spectroscopy, and cyclic voltammetry were used to investigate the properties of both the complexes

Charge reversal and surface charge amplification in asymmetric valence restricted primitive model planar electric double layers in the modified Poisson-Boltzmann theory

The modified Poisson-Boltzmann theory of the restricted primitive model double layer is revisited and recast in a fresh, slightly broader perspective. Derivation of relevant equations follow the techniques utilized in the earlier MPB4 and MPB5 formulations and clarifies the relationship between these. The MPB4, MPB5, and a new formulation of the theory are employed in an analysis of the structure and charge reversal phenomenon in asymmetric 2:1/1:2 valence electrolytes. Furthermore, polarization induced surface charge amplification is studied in 3:1/1:3 systems. The results are compared to the corresponding Monte Carlo simulations. The theories are seen to predict the "exact" simulation data to varying degrees of accuracy ranging from qualitative to almost quantitative. The results from a new version of the theory are found to be of comparable accuracy as the MPB5 results in many situations. However, in some cases involving low electrolyte concentrations, theoretical artifacts in the form of un-physical "shoulders" in the singlet ionic distribution functions are observed.Comment: 15 pages, 13 figure

Risk factors associated with overweight and obesity among urban school children and adolescents in Bangladesh: a case–control study

Background Childhood obesity has become an emerging urban health problem in urban cities in Bangladesh, particularly in affluent families. Risk factors for obesity in this context have not been explored yet. The objective of this study was to identify the risk factors associated with overweight and obesity among school children and adolescents in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Methods From October through November 2007, we conducted a case–control study among children aged 10–15 years in seven schools in Dhaka. We assessed body mass index (weight in kg/height in sq. meter) to identify the cases (overweight/obese) and controls (healthy/normal weight) following the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention age and sex specific growth chart. We used a structured questionnaire to collect demographic information and respondent’s exposure to several risk factors such as daily physical activity at home and in school, hours spent on computer games and television watching, maternal education level and parents’ weight and height. Results We enrolled 198 children: 99 cases, 99 controls. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that having at least one overweight parent (OR = 2.8, p = 0.001) and engaging in sedentary activities for >4 hours a day (OR = 2.0, p = 0.02) were independent risk factors for childhood overweight and/or obesity while exercising ≥ 30 minutes a day at home was a protective factor (OR = 0.4, p = 0.02). There were no significant associations between childhood overweight and sex, maternal education or physical activity at school. Conclusion Having overweight parents along with limited exercise and high levels of sedentary activities lead to obesity among school children in urban cities in Bangladesh. Public health programs are needed to increase awareness on risk factors for overweight and obesity among children and adolescents in order to reduce the future burden of obesity-associated chronic diseases.</p

An analysis of the fluctuation potential in the modified Poisson-Boltzmann theory for restricted primitive model electrolytes

An approximate analytical solution to the fluctuation potential problem in the modified Poisson-Boltzmann theory of electrolyte solutions in the restricted primitive model is presented. The solution is valid for all inter-ionic distances, including contact values. The fluctuation potential solution is implemented in the theory to describe the structure of the electrolyte in terms of the radial distribution functions, and to calculate some aspects of thermodynamics, viz., configurational reduced energies, and osmotic coefficients. The calculations have been made for symmetric valence 1:1 systems at the physical parameters of ionic diameter $4.25 \times 10^{-10}$ m, relative permittivity 78.5, absolute temperature 298 K, and molar concentrations 0.1038, 0.425, 1.00, and 1.968. Radial distribution functions are compared with the corresponding results from the symmetric Poisson-Boltzmann, and the conventional and modified Poisson-Boltzmann theories. Comparisons have also been done for the contact values of the radial distributions, reduced configurational energies, and osmotic coefficients as functions of electrolyte concentration. Some Monte Carlo simulation data from the literature are also included in the assessment of the thermodynamic predictions. Results show a very good agreement with the Monte Carlo results and some improvement for osmotic coefficients and radial distribution functions contact values relative to these theories. The reduced energy curve shows excellent agreement with Monte Carlo data for molarities up to 1 mol/dm$^{3}$.Comment: 16 pages, 8 figures, 3 table