Trend in Obesity Prevalence in European Adult Cohort Populations during Follow-up since 1996 and Their Predictions to 2015

To investigate trends in obesity prevalence in recent years and to predict the obesity prevalence in 2015 in European populations.Data of 97,942 participants from seven cohorts involved in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study participating in the Diogenes project (named as "Diogenes cohort" in the following) with weight measurements at baseline and follow-up were used to predict future obesity prevalence with logistic linear and non-linear (leveling off) regression models. In addition, linear and leveling off models were fitted to the EPIC-Potsdam dataset with five weight measures during the observation period to find out which of these two models might provide the more realistic prediction.During a mean follow-up period of 6 years, the obesity prevalence in the Diogenes cohort increased from 13% to 17%. The linear prediction model predicted an overall obesity prevalence of about 30% in 2015, whereas the leveling off model predicted a prevalence of about 20%. In the EPIC-Potsdam cohort, the shape of obesity trend favors a leveling off model among men (R²  = 0.98), and a linear model among women (R² = 0.99).Our data show an increase in obesity prevalence since the 1990ies, and predictions by 2015 suggests a sizeable further increase in European populations. However, the estimates from the leveling off model were considerably lower

Dietary energy density in relation to subsequent changes of weight and waist circumference in European men and women.

BACKGROUND: Experimental studies show that a reduction in dietary energy density (ED) is associated with reduced energy intake and body weight. However, few observational studies have investigated the role of ED on long-term weight and waist circumference change. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This population-based prospective cohort study included 89,432 participants from five European countries with mean age 53 years (range: 20-78 years) at baseline and were followed for an average of 6.5 years (range: 1.9-12.5 years). Participants were free of cancer, cardiovascular diseases and diabetes at baseline. ED was calculated as the energy intake (kcal) from foods divided by the weight (g) of foods. Multiple linear regression analyses were performed to investigate the associations of ED with annual weight and waist circumference change. Mean ED was 1.7 kcal/g and differed across study centers. After adjusting for baseline anthropometrics, demographic and lifestyle factors, follow-up duration and energy from beverages, ED was not associated with weight change, but significantly associated with waist circumference change overall. For 1 kcal/g ED, the annual weight change was -42 g/year [95% confidence interval (CI): -112, 28] and annual waist circumference change was 0.09 cm/year [95% CI: 0.01, 0.18]. In participants with baseline BMI<25 kg/m(2), 1 kcal/g ED was associated with a waist circumference change of 0.17 cm/year [95% CI: 0.09, 0.25]. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that lower ED diets do not prevent weight gain but have a weak yet potentially beneficial effect on the prevention of abdominal obesity as measured by waist circumference

Food Composition of the Diet in Relation to Changes in Waist Circumference Adjusted for Body Mass Index

Dietary factors such as low energy density and low glycemic index were associated with a lower gain in abdominal adiposity. A better understanding of which food groups/items contribute to these associations is necessary.To ascertain the association of food groups/items consumption on prospective annual changes in "waist circumference for a given BMI" (WC(BMI)), a proxy for abdominal adiposity.We analyzed data from 48,631 men and women from 5 countries participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Anthropometric measurements were obtained at baseline and after a median follow-up time of 5.5 years. WC(BMI) was defined as the residuals of waist circumference regressed on BMI, and annual change in WC(BMI) (ΔWC(BMI), cm/y) was defined as the difference between residuals at follow-up and baseline, divided by follow-up time. The association between food groups/items and ΔWC(BMI) was modelled using centre-specific adjusted linear regression, and random-effects meta-analyses to obtain pooled estimates.Higher fruit and dairy products consumption was associated with a lower gain in WC(BMI) whereas the consumption of white bread, processed meat, margarine, and soft drinks was positively associated with ΔWC(BMI). When these six food groups/items were analyzed in combination using a summary score, those in the highest quartile of the score--indicating a more favourable dietary pattern--showed a ΔWC(BMI) of -0.11 (95% CI -0.09 to -0.14) cm/y compared to those in the lowest quartile.A dietary pattern high in fruit and dairy and low in white bread, processed meat, margarine, and soft drinks may help to prevent abdominal fat accumulation

Changes in Waist Circumference and the Incidence of Acute Myocardial Infarction in Middle-Aged Men and Women

BACKGROUND: Waist circumference (WC) measured at one point in time is positively associated with the risk of acute myocardial infarction (MI), but the association with changes in WC (DWC) is not clear. We investigated the association between DWC and the risk of MI in middle-aged men and women, and evaluated the influence from concurrent changes in BMI (DBMI). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Data on 38,593 participants from the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health study was analysed. Anthropometry was assessed in 1993-97 and 1999-02. Information on fatal and non-fatal MI was obtained from National Registers. Cases were validated by review of the medical records. Hazard ratios (HR) were calculated from Cox proportional hazard models with individuals considered at risk from 1999-02 until December 30 2009. During 8.4 years of follow-up, 1,041 incident cases of MI occurred. WC was positively associated with the risk of MI, but weakly after adjustment for BMI. DWC was not associated with the risk of MI (HR per 5 cm change = 1.01 (0.95, 1.09) with adjustment for covariates, baseline WC, BMI and DBMI). Associations with DWC were not notably different in sub-groups stratified according to baseline WC or DBMI, or when individuals with MI occurring within the first years of follow-up were excluded. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: WC was positively associated with the risk of MI in middle-aged men and women, but changes in WC were not. These findings suggest that a reduction in WC may be an insufficient target for prevention of MI in middle-aged men and women

Human immunoglobulin G levels of viruses and associated glioma risk

Few consistent etiological factors have been identified for primary brain tumors. Inverse associations to asthma and low levels of varicella-zoster virus, immunoglobulin (Ig) levels in prevalent cases have indicted a role for the immune system in the development of glioma. Because samples from prevalent cases of glioma could be influenced by treatments such as steroids and chemotherapy, we investigated pre-diagnostic samples from three large Scandinavian cohorts. To test the hypothesis that immune response levels to these viruses are associated etiologically with glioma risk, we investigated pre-diagnostic immunoglobulin levels for cytomegalovirus (CMV), varicella-zoster virus (VZV), adenovirus (Ad), and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) including the nuclear antigen (EBNA1) using plasma samples from 197 cases of adult glioma and 394 controls collected from population-based cohorts in Sweden and Denmark. Low VZV IgG levels were marginally significantly more common in glioma cases than the controls (odds ratio (OR) = 0.68, 95% CI 0.41–1.13) for the fourth compared with the first quartile (p = 0.06 for trend). These results were more prominent when analyzing cases with blood sampling at least 2 years before diagnosis (OR = 0.63, 95% CI 0.37–1.08) (p = 0.03). No association with glioma risk was observed for CMV, EBV, and adenovirus

Characterizing Associations and SNP-Environment Interactions for GWAS-Identified Prostate Cancer Risk Markers—Results from BPC3

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with prostate cancer risk. However, whether these associations can be consistently replicated, vary with disease aggressiveness (tumor stage and grade) and/or interact with non-genetic potential risk factors or other SNPs is unknown. We therefore genotyped 39 SNPs from regions identified by several prostate cancer GWAS in 10,501 prostate cancer cases and 10,831 controls from the NCI Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium (BPC3). We replicated 36 out of 39 SNPs (P-values ranging from 0.01 to 10−28). Two SNPs located near KLK3 associated with PSA levels showed differential association with Gleason grade (rs2735839, P = 0.0001 and rs266849, P = 0.0004; case-only test), where the alleles associated with decreasing PSA levels were inversely associated with low-grade (as defined by Gleason grade <8) tumors but positively associated with high-grade tumors. No other SNP showed differential associations according to disease stage or grade. We observed no effect modification by SNP for association with age at diagnosis, family history of prostate cancer, diabetes, BMI, height, smoking or alcohol intake. Moreover, we found no evidence of pair-wise SNP-SNP interactions. While these SNPs represent new independent risk factors for prostate cancer, we saw little evidence for effect modification by other SNPs or by the environmental factors examined

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks

Worldwide trends in hypertension prevalence and progress in treatment and control from 1990 to 2019: a pooled analysis of 1201 population-representative studies with 104 million participants.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension can be detected at the primary health-care level and low-cost treatments can effectively control hypertension. We aimed to measure the prevalence of hypertension and progress in its detection, treatment, and control from 1990 to 2019 for 200 countries and territories. METHODS: We used data from 1990 to 2019 on people aged 30-79 years from population-representative studies with measurement of blood pressure and data on blood pressure treatment. We defined hypertension as having systolic blood pressure 140 mm Hg or greater, diastolic blood pressure 90 mm Hg or greater, or taking medication for hypertension. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of hypertension and the proportion of people with hypertension who had a previous diagnosis (detection), who were taking medication for hypertension (treatment), and whose hypertension was controlled to below 140/90 mm Hg (control). The model allowed for trends over time to be non-linear and to vary by age. FINDINGS: The number of people aged 30-79 years with hypertension doubled from 1990 to 2019, from 331 (95% credible interval 306-359) million women and 317 (292-344) million men in 1990 to 626 (584-668) million women and 652 (604-698) million men in 2019, despite stable global age-standardised prevalence. In 2019, age-standardised hypertension prevalence was lowest in Canada and Peru for both men and women; in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and some countries in western Europe including Switzerland, Spain, and the UK for women; and in several low-income and middle-income countries such as Eritrea, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Solomon Islands for men. Hypertension prevalence surpassed 50% for women in two countries and men in nine countries, in central and eastern Europe, central Asia, Oceania, and Latin America. Globally, 59% (55-62) of women and 49% (46-52) of men with hypertension reported a previous diagnosis of hypertension in 2019, and 47% (43-51) of women and 38% (35-41) of men were treated. Control rates among people with hypertension in 2019 were 23% (20-27) for women and 18% (16-21) for men. In 2019, treatment and control rates were highest in South Korea, Canada, and Iceland (treatment >70%; control >50%), followed by the USA, Costa Rica, Germany, Portugal, and Taiwan. Treatment rates were less than 25% for women and less than 20% for men in Nepal, Indonesia, and some countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Control rates were below 10% for women and men in these countries and for men in some countries in north Africa, central and south Asia, and eastern Europe. Treatment and control rates have improved in most countries since 1990, but we found little change in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. Improvements were largest in high-income countries, central Europe, and some upper-middle-income and recently high-income countries including Costa Rica, Taiwan, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, and Iran. INTERPRETATION: Improvements in the detection, treatment, and control of hypertension have varied substantially across countries, with some middle-income countries now outperforming most high-income nations. The dual approach of reducing hypertension prevalence through primary prevention and enhancing its treatment and control is achievable not only in high-income countries but also in low-income and middle-income settings. FUNDING: WHO