Scenario Planning and Nanotechnological Futures

Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision-making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios

Molecular testing for Lynch syndrome in people with colorectal cancer: systematic reviews and economic evaluation

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.BACKGROUND: Inherited mutations in deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) mismatch repair (MMR) genes lead to an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), gynaecological cancers and other cancers, known as Lynch syndrome (LS). Risk-reducing interventions can be offered to individuals with known LS-causing mutations. The mutations can be identified by comprehensive testing of the MMR genes, but this would be prohibitively expensive in the general population. Tumour-based tests - microsatellite instability (MSI) and MMR immunohistochemistry (IHC) - are used in CRC patients to identify individuals at high risk of LS for genetic testing. MLH1 (MutL homologue 1) promoter methylation and BRAF V600E testing can be conducted on tumour material to rule out certain sporadic cancers. OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether testing for LS in CRC patients using MSI or IHC (with or without MLH1 promoter methylation testing and BRAF V600E testing) is clinically effective (in terms of identifying Lynch syndrome and improving outcomes for patients) and represents a cost-effective use of NHS resources. REVIEW METHODS: Systematic reviews were conducted of the published literature on diagnostic test accuracy studies of MSI and/or IHC testing for LS, end-to-end studies of screening for LS in CRC patients and economic evaluations of screening for LS in CRC patients. A model-based economic evaluation was conducted to extrapolate long-term outcomes from the results of the diagnostic test accuracy review. The model was extended from a model previously developed by the authors. RESULTS: Ten studies were identified that evaluated the diagnostic test accuracy of MSI and/or IHC testing for identifying LS in CRC patients. For MSI testing, sensitivity ranged from 66.7% to 100.0% and specificity ranged from 61.1% to 92.5%. For IHC, sensitivity ranged from 80.8% to 100.0% and specificity ranged from 80.5% to 91.9%. When tumours showing low levels of MSI were treated as a positive result, the sensitivity of MSI testing increased but specificity fell. No end-to-end studies of screening for LS in CRC patients were identified. Nine economic evaluations of screening for LS in CRC were identified. None of the included studies fully matched the decision problem and hence a new economic evaluation was required. The base-case results in the economic evaluation suggest that screening for LS in CRC patients using IHC, BRAF V600E and MLH1 promoter methylation testing would be cost-effective at a threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for this strategy was £11,008 per QALY compared with no screening. Screening without tumour tests is not predicted to be cost-effective. LIMITATIONS: Most of the diagnostic test accuracy studies identified were rated as having a risk of bias or were conducted in unrepresentative samples. There was no direct evidence that screening improves long-term outcomes. No probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted. CONCLUSIONS: Systematic review evidence suggests that MSI- and IHC-based testing can be used to identify LS in CRC patients, although there was heterogeneity in the methods used in the studies identified and the results of the studies. There was no high-quality empirical evidence that screening improves long-term outcomes and so an evidence linkage approach using modelling was necessary. Key determinants of whether or not screening is cost-effective are the accuracy of tumour-based tests, CRC risk without surveillance, the number of relatives identified for cascade testing, colonoscopic surveillance effectiveness and the acceptance of genetic testing. Future work should investigate screening for more causes of hereditary CRC and screening for LS in endometrial cancer patients. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016033879. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.Funding for this study was provided by the Health Technology Assessment programme of the National Institute for Health Researc

Ecosystem services of temporary streams differ between wet and dry phases in regions with contrasting climates and economies

1. Temporary streams are dynamic ecosystems in which mosaics of flowing, ponded and dry habitats support high biodiversity of both aquatic and terrestrial species. Species interact within habitats to perform or facilitate processes that vary in response to changing habitat availability. A natural capital approach recognizes that, through such processes, the ‘natural assets’ of all ecosystems deliver services that benefit people. 2. The ecosystem services of temporary streams remain largely unexplored, in particular those provided during ponded and dry phases. In addition, recent characterizations have focused on dryland systems, and it remains unclear how service provision varies among different climatic regions, or between developed and developing economies. 3. We use evidence from interdisciplinary literature to examine the ecosystem services delivered by temporary streams, including the regulating, provisioning and cultural services provided across the continuum from flowing to dry conditions. We focus on service provision during dry phases and wet–dry transitions, across regions with contrasting climates and economic development. 4. Provision of individual services in temporary streams may be reduced, enhanced or changed by surface water loss. Services enhanced by dry phases include provision of higher‐quality subsurface drinking water and unique opportunities for recreation. Shifts between dry and wet phases enable groundwater recharge that mitigates water scarcity, and grant dry‐phase access to sediments deposited during flowing phases. However, the accessibility and thus perceived value of these and other services varies considerably among regions. In addition, accessing provisioning services requires careful management to promote sustainable resource use and avoid ecological degradation. 5. We highlight the need for environmental managers to recognize temporary streams as aquatic–terrestrial ecosystems, and to take actions promoting their diversity within functional socio‐ecological systems that deliver unique service bundles characterized by variability and differing availability in space and time

The long-term hospitalization experience following military service in the 1991 Gulf War among veterans remaining on active duty, 1994–2004

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite more than a decade of extensive, international efforts to characterize and understand the increased symptom and illness-reporting among veterans of the 1991 Gulf War, concern over possible long-term health effects related to this deployment continue. The purpose of this study was to describe the long-term hospitalization experience of the subset of U.S. Gulf War veterans still on active duty between 1994 and 2004.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Gulf War veterans on active duty rosters as of October 1, 1994, were identified (n = 211 642) and compared with veterans who had separated from military service and then assessed for attrition at three-year intervals during a 10-year follow-up period, examining demographic and military service characteristics, Gulf War exposure variables, and hospitalization data. Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to evaluate independent predictors of all-cause hospitalization among those still on active duty and to estimate cumulative probability of hospitalization, 1994–2004, by service branch.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Members of our 1994 active duty cohort were more likely to be officers, somewhat older, and married compared with those who had separated from the military after serving in the 1991 Gulf War. Selected war-related exposures or experiences did not appear to influence separation with the exception of in-theater presence during the brief ground combat phase. Overall the top three diagnostic categories for hospitalizations were musculo-skeletal, injury and poisoning, and digestive disorders. Diseases of the circulatory system and symptoms, signs, and ill-defined conditions increased proportionately over time. In-theater hospitalization was the only significant independent predictor of long-term hospitalization risk among selected war-related exposures or experiences examined. The cumulative probability of hospitalization was highest for Army and lowest for Marines.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results were generally consistent with a previous hospitalization study of US Gulf War veterans for the period August 1991 to July 1999. Although lack of a comparison group for our study limits interpretation of overall findings, intra-cohort analyses showed no significant associations between long-term hospitalization and war-related exposures or experiences, with the exception of in-theater hospitalization, within our active duty subset of 1991 Gulf War veterans.</p

Review and analysis of fire and explosion accidents in maritime transportation

The globally expanding shipping industry has several hazards such as collision, capsizing, foundering, grounding, stranding, fire, and explosion. Accidents are often caused by more than one contributing factor through complex interaction. It is crucial to identify root causes and their interactions to prevent and understand such accidents. This study presents a detailed review and analysis of fire and explosion accidents that occurred in the maritimetransportation industry during 1990–2015. The underlying causes of fire and explosion accidents are identified and analysed. This study also reviewed potential preventative measures to prevent such accidents. Additionally, this study compares properties of alternative fuels and analyses their effectiveness in mitigating fire and explosionhazards. It is observed that Cryogenic Natural Gas (CrNG), Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and methanol have properties more suitable than traditional fuels in mitigating fire risk and appropriate management of their hazards could make them a safer option to traditional fuels. However, for commercial use at this stage, there exist several uncertainties due to inadequate studies, and technological immaturity. This study provides an insight into fire and explosion accident causation and prevention, including the prospect of using alternative fuels for mitigating fire and explosion risks in maritime transportation

Evidence for models of diagnostic service provision in the community: literature mapping exercise and focused rapid reviews

Background Current NHS policy favours the expansion of diagnostic testing services in community and primary care settings. Objectives Our objectives were to identify current models of community diagnostic services in the UK and internationally and to assess the evidence for quality, safety and clinical effectiveness of such services. We were also interested in whether or not there is any evidence to support a broader range of diagnostic tests being provided in the community. Review methods We performed an initial broad literature mapping exercise to assess the quantity and nature of the published research evidence. The results were used to inform selection of three areas for investigation in more detail. We chose to perform focused reviews on logistics of diagnostic modalities in primary care (because the relevant issues differ widely between different types of test); diagnostic ultrasound (a key diagnostic technology affected by developments in equipment); and a diagnostic pathway (assessment of breathlessness) typically delivered wholly or partly in primary care/community settings. Databases and other sources searched, and search dates, were decided individually for each review. Quantitative and qualitative systematic reviews and primary studies of any design were eligible for inclusion. Results We identified seven main models of service that are delivered in primary care/community settings and in most cases with the possible involvement of community/primary care staff. Not all of these models are relevant to all types of diagnostic test. Overall, the evidence base for community- and primary care-based diagnostic services was limited, with very few controlled studies comparing different models of service. We found evidence from different settings that these services can reduce referrals to secondary care and allow more patients to be managed in primary care, but the quality of the research was generally poor. Evidence on the quality (including diagnostic accuracy and appropriateness of test ordering) and safety of such services was mixed. Conclusions In the absence of clear evidence of superior clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, the expansion of community-based services appears to be driven by other factors. These include policies to encourage moving services out of hospitals; the promise of reduced waiting times for diagnosis; the availability of a wider range of suitable tests and/or cheaper, more user-friendly equipment; and the ability of commercial providers to bid for NHS contracts. However, service development also faces a number of barriers, including issues related to staffing, training, governance and quality control. Limitations We have not attempted to cover all types of diagnostic technology in equal depth. Time and staff resources constrained our ability to carry out review processes in duplicate. Research in this field is limited by the difficulty of obtaining, from publicly available sources, up-to-date information about what models of service are commissioned, where and from which providers. Future work There is a need for research to compare the outcomes of different service models using robust study designs. Comparisons of ‘true’ community-based services with secondary care-based open-access services and rapid access clinics would be particularly valuable. There are specific needs for economic evaluations and for studies that incorporate effects on the wider health system. There appears to be no easy way of identifying what services are being commissioned from whom and keeping up with local evaluations of new services, suggesting a need to improve the availability of information in this area. Funding The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme