Distinguishing circumstellar from stellar photometric variability in Eta Carinae

The interacting binary Eta Carinae remains one of the most enigmatic massive stars in our Galaxy despite over four centuries of observations. In this work, its light curve from the ultraviolet to the near-infrared is analysed using spatially resolved HST observations and intense monitoring at the La Plata Observatory, combined with previously published photometry. We have developed a method to separate the central stellar object in the ground-based images using HST photometry and applying it to the more numerous ground-based data, which supports the hypothesis that the central source is brightening faster than the almost-constant Homunculus. After detrending from long-term brightening, the light curve shows periodic orbital modulation (V ∼ 0.6 mag) attributed to the wind–wind collision cavity as it sweeps around the primary star and it shows variable projected area to our line-of-sight. Two quasi-periodic components with time-scales of 2–3 and 8–10 yr and low amplitude, V < 0.2 mag, are superimposed on the brightening light curve, being the only stellar component of variability found, which indicates minimal stellar instability. Moreover, the light-curve analysis shows no evidence of ‘shell ejections’ at periastron. We propose that the long-term brightening of the stellar core is due to the dissipation of a dusty clump in front of the central star, which works like a natural coronagraph. Thus, the central stars appear to be more stable than previously thought since the dominant variability originates from a changing circumstellar medium. We predict that the brightening phase, due mainly to dust dissipation, will be completed around 2032 ± 4 yr, when the star will be brighter than in the 1600s by up to V ∼ 1 mag.Fil: Damineli, A.. Universidade do Sao Paulo. Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas; BrasilFil: Fernandez Lajus, Eduardo Eusebio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Astrofísica La Plata. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas. Instituto de Astrofísica La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Almeida, L.A.. Universidade do Sao Paulo. Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas; Brasil. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte; BrasilFil: Corcoran, M.F.. National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Estados Unidos. The Catholic University of America; Estados UnidosFil: Damineli, D.S.C.. University of Maryland; Estados UnidosFil: Gull, T.R.. National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Estados UnidosFil: Hamaguchi, K. National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Estados Unidos. University of Maryland; Estados UnidosFil: Hillier, D.J.. University of Pittsburgh; Estados UnidosFil: Jablonski, F.J.. Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos. Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais; BrasilFil: Madura, T.I.. San Jose State University; Estados UnidosFil: Moffat, A.F.J.. Université du Québec a Montreal; CanadáFil: Navarete, F.. Universidade do Sao Paulo. Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas; BrasilFil: Richardson, N.D.. University Of Toledo (utoledo); Estados UnidosFil: Ruiz, G.F.. Universidade do Sao Paulo. Instituto de Astronomia, Geofísica e Ciências Atmosféricas; BrasilFil: Salerno, N.E.. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas; ArgentinaFil: Scalia, María Cecilia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - La Plata. Instituto de Astrofísica La Plata. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas. Instituto de Astrofísica La Plata; ArgentinaFil: Weigelt, G.. Max Planck Institute For Radio Astronomy; Alemani

Multiple drivers of decline in the global status of freshwater crayfish (Decapoda: Astacidea)

International audienceRates of biodiversity loss are higher in freshwater ecosystems than in most terrestrial or marine ecosystems, making freshwater conservation a priority. However, prioritization methods are impeded by insufficient knowledge on the distribution and conservation status of freshwater taxa, particularly invertebrates. We evaluated the extinction risk of the world's 590 freshwater crayfish species using the IUCN Categories and Criteria and found 32% of all species are threatened with extinction. The level of extinction risk differed between families, with proportionally more threatened species in the Parastacidae and Astacidae than in the Cambaridae. Four described species were Extinct and 21% were assessed as Data Deficient. There was geographical variation in the dominant threats affecting the main centres of crayfish diversity. The majority of threatened US and Mexican species face threats associated with urban development, pollution, damming and water management. Conversely, the majority of Australian threatened species are affected by climate change, harvesting, agriculture and invasive species. Only a small proportion of crayfish are found within the boundaries of protected areas, suggesting that alternative means of long-term protection will be required. Our study highlights many of the significant challenges yet to come for freshwater biodiversity unless conservation planning shifts from a reactive to proactive approach

Diving into the vertical dimension of elasmobranch movement ecology

Knowledge of the three-dimensional movement patterns of elasmobranchs is vital to understand their ecological roles and exposure to anthropogenic pressures. To date, comparative studies among species at global scales have mostly focused on horizontal movements. Our study addresses the knowledge gap of vertical movements by compiling the first global synthesis of vertical habitat use by elasmobranchs from data obtained by deployment of 989 biotelemetry tags on 38 elasmobranch species. Elasmobranchs displayed high intra- and interspecific variability in vertical movement patterns. Substantial vertical overlap was observed for many epipelagic elasmobranchs, indicating an increased likelihood to display spatial overlap, biologically interact, and share similar risk to anthropogenic threats that vary on a vertical gradient. We highlight the critical next steps toward incorporating vertical movement into global management and monitoring strategies for elasmobranchs, emphasizing the need to address geographic and taxonomic biases in deployments and to concurrently consider both horizontal and vertical movements

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation: Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Search for jet extinction in the inclusive jet-pT spectrum from proton-proton collisions at s=8 TeV

Published by the American Physical Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License. Further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the published articles title, journal citation, and DOI.The first search at the LHC for the extinction of QCD jet production is presented, using data collected with the CMS detector corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 10.7  fb−1 of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV. The extinction model studied in this analysis is motivated by the search for signatures of strong gravity at the TeV scale (terascale gravity) and assumes the existence of string couplings in the strong-coupling limit. In this limit, the string model predicts the suppression of all high-transverse-momentum standard model processes, including jet production, beyond a certain energy scale. To test this prediction, the measured transverse-momentum spectrum is compared to the theoretical prediction of the standard model. No significant deficit of events is found at high transverse momentum. A 95% confidence level lower limit of 3.3 TeV is set on the extinction mass scale

Multiomics in primary and metastatic breast tumors from the AURORA US network finds microenvironment and epigenetic drivers of metastasis

The AURORA US Metastasis Project was established with the goal to identify molecular features associated with metastasis. We assayed 55 females with metastatic breast cancer (51 primary cancers and 102 metastases) by RNA sequencing, tumor/germline DNA exome and low-pass whole-genome sequencing and global DNA methylation microarrays. Expression subtype changes were observed in ~30% of samples and were coincident with DNA clonality shifts, especially involving HER2. Downregulation of estrogen receptor (ER)-mediated cell–cell adhesion genes through DNA methylation mechanisms was observed in metastases. Microenvironment differences varied according to tumor subtype; the ER+/luminal subtype had lower fibroblast and endothelial content, while triple-negative breast cancer/basal metastases showed a decrease in B and T cells. In 17% of metastases, DNA hypermethylation and/or focal deletions were identified near HLA-A and were associated with reduced expression and lower immune cell infiltrates, especially in brain and liver metastases. These findings could have implications for treating individuals with metastatic breast cancer with immune- and HER2-targeting therapies