Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: Health authorities worldwide, especially in the Asia Pacific region, are seeking effective public-health interventions in the continuing epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). We assessed the epidemiology of SARS in Hong Kong. METHODS: We included 1425 cases reported up to April 28, 2003. An integrated database was constructed from several sources containing information on epidemiological, demographic, and clinical variables. We estimated the key epidemiological distributions: infection to onset, onset to admission, admission to death, and admission to discharge. We measured associations between the estimated case fatality rate and patients' age and the time from onset to admission. FINDINGS: After the initial phase of exponential growth, the rate of confirmed cases fell to less than 20 per day by April 28. Public-health interventions included encouragement to report to hospital rapidly after the onset of clinical symptoms, contact tracing for confirmed and suspected cases, and quarantining, monitoring, and restricting the travel of contacts. The mean incubation period of the disease is estimated to be 6.4 days (95% CI 5.2-7.7). The mean time from onset of clinical symptoms to admission to hospital varied between 3 and 5 days, with longer times earlier in the epidemic. The estimated case fatality rate was 13.2% (9.8-16.8) for patients younger than 60 years and 43.3% (35.2-52.4) for patients aged 60 years or older assuming a parametric gamma distribution. A non-parametric method yielded estimates of 6.8% (4.0-9.6) and 55.0% (45.3-64.7), respectively. Case clusters have played an important part in the course of the epidemic. INTERPRETATION: Patients' age was strongly associated with outcome. The time between onset of symptoms and admission to hospital did not alter outcome, but shorter intervals will be important to the wider population by restricting the infectious period before patients are placed in quarantine

Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions.

We present an analysis of the first 10 weeks of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in Hong Kong. The epidemic to date has been characterized by two large clusters-initiated by two separate "super-spread" events (SSEs)-and by ongoing community transmission. By fitting a stochastic model to data on 1512 cases, including these clusters, we show that the etiological agent of SARS is moderately transmissible. Excluding SSEs, we estimate that 2.7 secondary infections were generated per case on average at the start of the epidemic, with a substantial contribution from hospital transmission. Transmission rates fell during the epidemic, primarily as a result of reductions in population contact rates and improved hospital infection control, but also because of more rapid hospital attendance by symptomatic individuals. As a result, the epidemic is now in decline, although continued vigilance is necessary for this to be maintained. Restrictions on longer range population movement are shown to be a potentially useful additional control measure in some contexts. We estimate that most currently infected persons are now hospitalized, which highlights the importance of control of nosocomial transmission

Characterization of stratospheric smoke particles over the antarctica by remote sensing instruments

Australian smoke from the extraordinary biomass burning in December 2019 was observed over Marambio, Antarctica from the 7th to the 10th January, 2020. The smoke plume was transported thousands of kilometers over the Pacific Ocean, and reached the Antarctic Peninsula at a hight of 13 km, as determined by satellite lidar observations. The proposed origin and trajectory of the aerosol are supported by back-trajectory model analyses. Ground-based Sun–Sky–Moon photometer belonging to the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) measured aerosol optical depth (500 nm wavelength) above 0.3, which is unprecedented for the site. Inversion of sky radiances provide the optical and microphysical properties of the smoke over Marambio. The AERONET data near the fire origin in Tumbarumba, Australia, was used to investigate the changes in the measured aerosol properties after transport and ageing. The analysis shows an increase in the fine mode particle radius and a reduction in absorption (increase in the single scattering albedo). The available long-term AOD data series at Marambio suggests that smoke particles could have remained over Antarctica for several weeks after the analyzed event.Fil: González, Ramiro. Universidad de Valladolid; EspañaFil: Toledano, Carlos. Universidad de Valladolid; EspañaFil: Román, Roberto. Universidad de Valladolid; EspañaFil: Mateos, David. Universidad de Valladolid; EspañaFil: Asmi, Eija Maria. Finnish Meteorological Institute; Finlandia. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; ArgentinaFil: Rodríguez, Edith. Finnish Meteorological Institute; FinlandiaFil: Lau, Ian C.. Commonwealth Scientific And Industrial Research Organisation Astronomy And Space Science; AustraliaFil: Ferrara, Jonathan. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaria de Planeamiento. Servicio Meteorológico Nacional; ArgentinaFil: D'elia, Raul Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo Estratégico para la Defensa. Ministerio de Defensa. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo Estratégico para la Defensa; ArgentinaFil: Antuña Sánchez, Juan Carlos. Universidad de Valladolid; EspañaFil: Cachorro Revilla, Victoria Eugenia. Universidad de Valladolid; EspañaFil: Calle, Abel. Universidad de Valladolid; EspañaFil: de Frutos Baraja, Ángel Máximo. Universidad de Valladolid; Españ

Evidence for Geographical and Racial Variation in Serum Sex Steroid Levels in Older Men.

Background: Despite considerable racial and geographical differences in human phenotypes and in the incidence of diseases that may be associated with sex steroid action, there are few data concerning variation in sex steroid levels among populations. We designed an international study to determine the degree to which geography and race influence sex steroid levels in older men. Methods: Using mass spectrometry, concentrations of serum androgens, estrogens, and sex steroid precursors/metabolites were measured in 5003 older men from five countries. SHBG levels were assessed using radioimmunoassay. Results: There was substantial geographical variation in the levels of sex steroids, precursors, and metabolites, as well as SHBG. For instance, Asian men in Hong Kong and Japan, but not in the United States, had levels of total testosterone approximately 20% higher than in other groups. Even greater variation was present in levels of estradiol, SHBG, and dihydrotestosterone. Group differences in body mass index did not explain most geographical differences. In addition, body mass index-independent racial differences were present; Black men had higher levels of estrogens (estradiol, estrone), and Asian men had lower levels of glucuronidated androgen metabolites. Conclusions: On a global scale, there are important geographical and racial differences in the concentrations of serum sex steroids and SHBG in older men

Non-default Component of Sovereign Emerging Market Yield Spreads and its Determinants: Evidence from Credit Default Swap Market

This article shows that a sizable component of emerging market sovereign yield spreads is due to factors other than default risk, such as liquidity. The author estimates the non-default component of the yield spreads as the basis between the actual credit default swap (CDS) premium and the hypothetical CDS premium implied by emerging market bond yields. On average, the basis is large and positive for speculative-grade bonds and slightly negative for investment-grade bonds. The large positive basis for speculative-grade bonds supports the existence of speculation in the CDS market when the underlying's credit quality is bad. The author studies the effects of bond liquidity, liquidity in the CDS market, equity market performance, and macroeconomic variables on the non-default component of the emerging market yield spreads. The results show that bond liquidity has a significant and positive effect on the CDS–bond basis of investment-grade bonds. The results suggest that the liquid bonds of investment-grade bonds are more expensive relative to the prices implied their CDS premiums. However, the results are somewhat mixed and even contrary for the speculative-grade bond sample

Search for dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks in √s = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for weakly interacting massive particle dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks is presented. Final states containing third-generation quarks and miss- ing transverse momentum are considered. The analysis uses 36.1 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at √s = 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess of events above the estimated backgrounds is observed. The results are in- terpreted in the framework of simplified models of spin-0 dark-matter mediators. For colour- neutral spin-0 mediators produced in association with top quarks and decaying into a pair of dark-matter particles, mediator masses below 50 GeV are excluded assuming a dark-matter candidate mass of 1 GeV and unitary couplings. For scalar and pseudoscalar mediators produced in association with bottom quarks, the search sets limits on the production cross- section of 300 times the predicted rate for mediators with masses between 10 and 50 GeV and assuming a dark-matter mass of 1 GeV and unitary coupling. Constraints on colour- charged scalar simplified models are also presented. Assuming a dark-matter particle mass of 35 GeV, mediator particles with mass below 1.1 TeV are excluded for couplings yielding a dark-matter relic density consistent with measurements

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

X-linked agammaglobulinemia (XLA) : Phenotype, diagnosis, and therapeutic challenges around the world

Background: X-linked agammaglobulinemia is an inherited immunodeficiency recognized since 1952. In spite of seven decades of experience, there is still a limited understanding of regional differences in presentation and complications. This study was designed by the Primary Immunodeficiencies Committee of the World Allergy Organization to better understand regional needs, challenges and unique patient features. Methods: A survey instrument was designed by the Primary Immunodeficiencies Committee of the World Allergy Organization to collect both structured and semi-structured data on X-linked agammaglobulinemia. The survey was sent to 54 centers around the world chosen on the basis of World Allergy Organization participation and/or registration in the European Society for Immunodeficiencies. There were 40 centers that responded, comprising 32 countries. Results: This study reports on 783 patients from 40 centers around the world. Problems with diagnosis are highlighted by the reported delays in diagnosis>24 months in 34% of patients and the lack of genetic studies in 39% of centers Two infections exhibited regional variation. Vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis was seen only in countries with live polio vaccination and two centers reported mycobacteria. High rates of morbidity were reported. Acute and chronic lung diseases accounted for 41% of the deaths. Unusual complications such as inflammatory bowel disease and large granular lymphocyte disease, among others were specifically enumerated, and while individually uncommon, they were collectively seen in 20.3% of patients. These data suggest that a broad range of both inflammatory, infectious, and autoimmune conditions can occur in patients. The breadth of complications and lack of data on management subsequently appeared as a significant challenge reported by centers. Survival above 20 years of age was lowest in Africa (22%) and reached above 70% in Australia, Europe and the Americas. Centers were asked to report their challenges and responses (n = 116) emphasized the difficulties in access to immunoglobulin products (16%) and reflected the ongoing need for education of both patients and referring physicians. Conclusions: This is the largest study of patients with X-linked agammaglobulinemia and emphasizes the continued morbidity and mortality of XLA despite progress in diagnosis and treatment. It presents a world view of the successes and challenges for patients and physicians alike. A pivotal finding is the need for education of physicians regarding typical symptoms suggesting a possible diagnosis of X-linked agammaglobulinemia and sharing of best practices for the less common complications.Peer reviewe

Fine-mapping analysis including over 254,000 East Asian and European descendants identifies 136 putative colorectal cancer susceptibility genes

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified more than 200 common genetic variants independently associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, but the causal variants and target genes are mostly unknown. We sought to fine-map all known CRC risk loci using GWAS data from 100,204 cases and 154,587 controls of East Asian and European ancestry. Our stepwise conditional analyses revealed 238 independent association signals of CRC risk, each with a set of credible causal variants (CCVs), of which 28 signals had a single CCV. Our cis-eQTL/mQTL and colocalization analyses using colorectal tissue-specific transcriptome and methylome data separately from 1299 and 321 individuals, along with functional genomic investigation, uncovered 136 putative CRC susceptibility genes, including 56 genes not previously reported. Analyses of single-cell RNA-seq data from colorectal tissues revealed 17 putative CRC susceptibility genes with distinct expression patterns in specific cell types. Analyses of whole exome sequencing data provided additional support for several target genes identified in this study as CRC susceptibility genes. Enrichment analyses of the 136 genes uncover pathways not previously linked to CRC risk. Our study substantially expanded association signals for CRC and provided additional insight into the biological mechanisms underlying CRC development