Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination for under-five children in Iran

Background: Rotavirus diarrhea is one of the most important causes of death among under-five children. Anti-rotavirus vaccination of these children may have a reducing effect on the disease. Objectives: this study is intended to contribute to health policy-makers of the country about the optimal decision and policy development in this area, by performing cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis on anti-rotavirus vaccination for under-5 children. Patients and Methods: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using a decision tree model to analyze rotavirus vaccination, which was compared with no vaccination with Iran�s ministry of health perspective in a 5-year time horizon. Epidemiological data were collected from published and unpublished sources. Four different assumptions were considered to the extent of the disease episode. To analyze costs, the costs of implementing the vaccination program were calculated with 98 coverage and the cost of USD 7 per dose. Medical and social costs of the disease were evaluated by sampling patients with rotavirus diarrhea, and sensitivity analysis was also performed for different episode rates and vaccine price per dose. Results: For the most optimistic assumption for the episode of illness (10.2 per year), the cost per DALY averted is 12,760 and 7,404 for RotaTeq and Rotarix vaccines, respectively, while assuming the episode of illness is 300, they will be equal to 2,395 and 354, respectively, which will be highly cost-effective. Number of life-years gained is equal to 3,533 years. Conclusions: Assuming that the illness episodes are 100 and 300 for Rotarix and 300 for Rota Teq, the ratio of cost per DALY averted is highly cost-effective, based on the threshold of the world health organization (< 1 GDP per capita = 4526 USD). The implementation of a national rotavirus vaccination program is suggested. © 2015, Growth & Development Research Center

The prevalence of obesity in school children of Zahedan-Iran; Double burden of weight disorders

Background: Obesity has a permanent effect on childrens' health and acts as a major risk factor for chronic diseases. Therefore considering children BMI is a vital parameter at each visit. Objectives: This study was performed to assess the prevalence of obesity and its determinants in school children of Zahedan in Iran. Zahedan is the capital of Sistan-and-Balouchestan province known to have the highest prevalence of underweight in Iranian children. Patients and Methods: This cross-sectional study was performed on 3582 school children, among which 1786 were girls and 1796 boys in 2012. The students aged 6 to 13 years old and selected based on a stratified random method. The body mass index (BMI) was measured for each student and being overweight/obesity was determined based on CDC 2000 definitions. Prevalence proportions were estimated by weighing the sample. The study was performed at primary and guidance schools of Zahedan. Samples were stratified from two geographic regions of Zahedan (Zone 1 and 2). Results: In the sample, 78.9 were under 85th percentile, 11.8 were overweight (85th - 95th percentile) and 9.3 were obese (> 95th percentile). Weighted estimate for the prevalence of obesity/overweight in girls, boys and all 6 - 13 years old students were 16.2, 18.4 and 17.4, respectively. Presence of overweight/obesity was related to school type (private to public schools OR = 2.13, 1.80 - 2.52) and increasing age (OR = 1.12, 1.04 - 1.20). Conclusions: A high prevalence of obesity was found in Zahedan students. Concurrent high prevalence of obesity/overweight and underweight demonstrates amplitude of weight problems in school children. There is an urgent need for special health programs to conduct proper diagnosis and management of obesity in Zahedan. © 2015, Iranian Society of Pediatrics

Cost-effectiveness analysis of adding low dose ribavirin to peginterferon alfa-2a for treatment of chronic hepatitis C infected thalassemia major patients in Iran

Background: The prevalence of hepatitis C in Iran is 1 and 18 in general population and thalassemia patients respectively. The cost effectiveness analysis of adding Ribavirin to Peginterferon alfa-2a (PEG IFN alfa-2a) as a combination treatment strategy of chronic hepatitis C in thalassemia patients in comparison with monotherapy could help clinicians and policy makers to provide the best treatment for the patients. Objectives: In this study we aimed to assess whether adding Ribavirin to PEG IFN alfa-2a is a cost effective strategy in different genotypes and different subgroups of 280 patients with chronic hepatitis C infection from the perspective of society in Iranian setting. Patients and Methods: A cost effectiveness analysis including all costs and outcomes of treatments for chronic hepatitis C infected thalassemia major patients was conducted. We constructed a decision tree of treatment course in which a hypothetical cohort of 100 patients received "PEG IFN alfa-2a" or "Peg IFN alfa-2a plus Ribavirin." The cost analysis was based on cost data for 2008 and we used 9300 Iranian Rials (IR Rial) as exchange rate declared by the Iranian Central Bank on that time to calculating costs by US Dollar (USD). To evaluate whether a strategy is cost effective, one time and three times of GDP per capita were used as threshold based on recommendation of the World Health Organization. Results: The Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) for combination therapy in genotype-1 and genotypes non-1 subgroups was 2,673 and 19,211 US dollars (USD) per one Sustain Virological Response (SVR), respectively. In low viral load and high viral load subgroups, the ICER was 5,233 and 14,976 USD per SVR, respectively. The calculated ICER for combination therapy in subgroup of patients with previously resistant to monotherapy was 13,006 USD per SVR. Combination therapy in previously resistant patients to combination therapy was a dominant strategy. Conclusions: Adding low dose of Ribavirin to PEG IFN alfa-2a for treatment of chronic hepatitis C patients with genotype-1 was "highly cost effective" and in patients with low viral load and in previous monotherapy resistant patients was "cost effective." © 2013, Kowsar Corp

Trend of appendicitis mortality at national and provincial levels in iran from 1990 to 2015

Background: Appendicitis is one of the most preventable causes of death worldwide. We aimed to determine the trend of mortality due to appendicitis by sex and age at national and provincial levels in Iran during 26 years. Methods: Data were collected from Iran Death Registration System (DRS), cemetery databanks in Tehran and Esfahan, and the national population and housing censuses of Iran. The estimated population was determined for each group from 1990 to 2015 using a growth model. Incompleteness, misalignment, and misclassification in the DRS were addressed and multiple imputation methods were used for dealing with missing data. ICD-10 codes were converted to Global Burden of Disease (GBD) codes to allow comparison of the results with the GBD study. A Spatio-Temporal model and Gaussian Process Regression were used to predict the levels and trends in child and adult mortality rates, as well as cause fractions. Results: From 1990 to 2015, 6,982 deaths due to appendicitis were estimated in Iran. The age-standardized mortality rate per 100 000 decreased from 0.72 (95 UI: 0.46-1.12) in 1990 to 0.11 (0.07-0.16) in 2015, a reduction of 84.72 over the course of 26 years. The male: female ratio was 1.13 during the 26 years of the study with an average annual percent change of -2.31 for women and -2.63 for men. Among men and women, appendicitis mortality rate had the highest magnitude of decline in the province of Zanjan and the lowest in the province of Hormozgan. In 1990, the lowest age-standardized appendicitis-related mortality was observed in both women and men in the province of Alborz and the highest mortality rate among men were observed in the province of Lorestan. In 2015, the lowest mortality rates in women and men were in the province of Tehran. The highest mortality rates in women were in Hormozgan, and in men were in Golestan province. Conclusion: The mortality rate due to appendicitis has declined at national and provincial levels in Iran. Understanding the causes of differences across provinces and the trend over years can be useful in priority setting for policy makers to inform preventive actions to further decrease mortality from appendicitis. © 2020 The Author (s)

Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries

Childhood malnutrition is associated with high morbidity and mortality globally1. Undernourished children are more likely to experience cognitive, physical, and metabolic developmental impairments that can lead to later cardiovascular disease, reduced intellectual ability and school attainment, and reduced economic productivity in adulthood2. Child growth failure (CGF), expressed as stunting, wasting, and underweight in children under five years of age (0�59 months), is a specific subset of undernutrition characterized by insufficient height or weight against age-specific growth reference standards3�5. The prevalence of stunting, wasting, or underweight in children under five is the proportion of children with a height-for-age, weight-for-height, or weight-for-age z-score, respectively, that is more than two standard deviations below the World Health Organization�s median growth reference standards for a healthy population6. Subnational estimates of CGF report substantial heterogeneity within countries, but are available primarily at the first administrative level (for example, states or provinces)7; the uneven geographical distribution of CGF has motivated further calls for assessments that can match the local scale of many public health programmes8. Building from our previous work mapping CGF in Africa9, here we provide the first, to our knowledge, mapped high-spatial-resolution estimates of CGF indicators from 2000 to 2017 across 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99 of affected children live1, aggregated to policy-relevant first and second (for example, districts or counties) administrative-level units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the ambitious World Health Organization Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40 and wasting to less than 5 by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and progress exist across and within countries; our maps identify high-prevalence areas even within nations otherwise succeeding in reducing overall CGF prevalence. By highlighting where the highest-need populations reside, these geospatial estimates can support policy-makers in planning interventions that are adapted locally and in efficiently directing resources towards reducing CGF and its health implications. © 2020, The Author(s)

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17 : analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health

Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018

Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000–2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15–49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where large within-country disparities occur, as well as areas likely to fall short of the WHO GNT, offering precision public health tools so that adequate resource allocation and subsequent interventions can be targeted to the most vulnerable populations.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation: Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning