Cost of Coexisting with a Relict Large Carnivore Population: Impact of Apennine Brown Bears, 2005-2015.

Human-carnivore conflicts are a major conservation issue. As bears are expanding their range in Europe's human-modified landscapes, it is increasingly important to understand, prevent, and address human-bear conflicts and evaluate mitigation strategies in areas of historical coexistence. Based on verified claims, we assessed costs, patterns, and drivers of bear damages in the relict Apennine brown bear population in the Abruzzo Lazio and Molise National Park (PNALM), central Italy. During 2005-2015, 203 ± 71 (SD) damage events were verified annually, equivalent to 75,987 ± 30,038 €/year paid for compensation. Most damages occurred in summer and fall, with livestock depredation, especially sheep and cattle calves, prevailing over other types of damages, with apiaries ranking second in costs of compensation. Transhumant livestock owners were less impacted than residential ones, and farms that adopted prevention measures loaned from the PNALM were less susceptible to bear damages. Livestock farms chronically damaged by bears represented 8 ± 3% of those annually impacted, corresponding to 24 ± 6% of compensation costs. Further improvements in the conflict mitigation policy adopted by the PNALM include integrated prevention, conditional compensation, and participatory processes. We discuss the implications of our study for Human-bear coexistence in broader contexts

Iodine Intake Estimated by 24 h Urine Collection in the Italian Adult Population: 2008–2012 Survey

Monitoring the population iodine status is essential for iodine deficiency eradication. This study assessed the average dietary iodine intake and the iodine status of a random sample of the Italian general adult population. The study population included 2378 adults aged 35–79 years (1229 men and 1149 women) from all 20 Italian regions, participating in the Osservatorio Epidemiologico Cardiovascolare/Health Examination Survey 2008–2012 (OEC/HES), and were examined for iodine intake in the framework of the MINISAL-GIRCSI Programme. Dietary iodine intake was assessed by the measurement of 24 h urinary iodine excretion. The median daily iodine intake of the whole population was lower (96 μg/d, interquartile range 51–165) than the daily adequate iodine intake according to both EFSA and WHO recommendation (150 μg/d), with a significantly lower value among women (85 μg/d) compared with men (111 μg/d). Iodine intake diminished with age and increased with BMI (body mass index) in male but not in female participants, without achieving the adequate intake in any sex, age, or BMI category. In this random sample of Italian general adult population examined in 2008–2012, iodine intake still remained lower than the recommended val- ues despite the implementation of a strategy of iodoprophylaxis based on salt iodization in 2005. These data represent a valuable reference for future monitoring of iodine status in our country

Trend in potassium intake and Na/K ratio in the Italian adult population between the 2008 and 2018 CUORE project surveys

Abstract Background and aims Low potassium intake, in addition to high sodium, has been associated with higher risk of hypertension and CVD. The Study assessed habitual potassium intake and sodium/potassium ratio of the Italian adult population from 2008 to 2012 to 2018–2019 based on 24-h urine collection, in the framework of the CUORE Project/MINISAL-GIRCSI/MENO SALE PIU' SALUTE national surveys. Methods and results Data were from cross-sectional surveys of randomly selected age-and-sex stratified samples of resident persons aged 35–74 years in 10 (out of 20) Italian regions. Urinary electrolyte and creatinine measurements were performed in a central laboratory. Analyses considered 942 men and 916 women, examined in 2008–2012, and 967 men and 1010 women, examined in 2018–2019. In 2008–2012, the age-standardized mean of potassium intake (urinary potassium accounts for 70% of potassium intake) was 3147 mg (95% CI 3086–3208) in men and 2784 mg (2727–2841) in women, whereas in 2018–2019, it was 3043 mg (2968–3118) and 2561 mg (2508–2614) respectively. In 2008–2012, age-adjusted prevalence of persons with an adequate potassium intake (i.e. ≥ 3510 mg/day) was 31% (95% CI 28–34%) for men and 18% (16–21%) for women; in 2018–2019, it was 26% (23–29%) and 12% (10–14%) respectively. The sodium/potassium ratio significantly decreased both in men and women. Conclusions The average daily potassium intake of the Italian general adult population remains lower than the WHO and EFSA recommended level. These results suggest the need of a revision to strengthen initiatives for the promotion of an adequate potassium intake at the population level

Iodine Intake from Food and Iodized Salt as Related to Dietary Salt Consumption in the Italian Adult General Population

Since the Italian iodoprophylaxis strategy is based on the use of iodized salt, we assessed the relationship between dietary salt consumption and iodine intake in the Italian adult population. We estimated the relative contribution given by the use of iodized salt and by the iodine introduced by foods to the total iodine intake. The study population included 2219 adults aged 25–79 years (1138 men and 1081 women) from all Italian regions, participating to the Osservatorio Epidemiologico Cardiovascolare/Health Examination Survey 2008–2012 (OEC/HES), and examined for sodium and iodine intake in the framework of the MINISAL-GIRCSI Programme. Dietary sodium and total iodine intake were assessed by the measurement of 24 h urinary excretion, while the EPIC questionnaire was used to evaluate the iodine intake from food. Sodium and iodine intake were significantly and directly associated, upon accounting for age, sex, and BMI (Spearman rho = 0.298; p < 0.001). The iodine intake increased gradually across quintiles of salt consumption in both men and women (p < 0.001). The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) adequacy level for iodine intake was met by men, but not women, only in the highest quintile of salt consumption. We estimated that approximately 57% of the iodine intake is derived from food and 43% from salt. Iodized salt contributed 24% of the total salt intake, including both discretionary and non-discretionary salt consumption. In conclusion, in this random sample of the Italian general adult population examined in 2008–2012, the total iodine intake secured by iodized salt and the iodine provision by food was insufficient to meet the EFSA adequate iodine intake

Reconciliation of essential process parameters for an enhanced predictability of Arctic stratospheric ozone loss and its climate interactions

Significant reductions in stratospheric ozone occur inside the polar vortices each spring when chlorine radicals produced by heterogeneous reactions on cold particle surfaces in winter destroy ozone mainly in two catalytic cycles, the ClO dimer cycle and the ClO/BrO cycle. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), which are responsible for most of the chlorine currently present in the stratosphere, have been banned by the Montreal Protocol and its amendments, and the ozone layer is predicted to recover to 1980 levels within the next few decades. During the same period, however, climate change is expected to alter the temperature, circulation patterns and chemical composition in the stratosphere, and possible geo-engineering ventures to mitigate climate change may lead to additional changes. To realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to such influences requires the correct representation of all relevant processes. The European project RECONCILE has comprehensively addressed remaining questions in the context of polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify the rates of some of the most relevant, yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes. To this end RECONCILE used a broad approach of laboratory experiments, two field missions in the Arctic winter 2009/10 employing the high altitude research aircraft M55-Geophysica and an extensive match ozone sonde campaign, as well as microphysical and chemical transport modelling and data assimilation. Some of the main outcomes of RECONCILE are as follows: (1) vortex meteorology: the 2009/10 Arctic winter was unusually cold at stratospheric levels during the six-week period from mid-December 2009 until the end of January 2010, with reduced transport and mixing across the polar vortex edge; polar vortex stability and how it is influenced by dynamic processes in the troposphere has led to unprecedented, synoptic-scale stratospheric regions with temperatures below the frost point; in these regions stratospheric ice clouds have been observed, extending over >106km2 during more than 3 weeks. (2) Particle microphysics: heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) particles in the absence of ice has been unambiguously demonstrated; conversely, the synoptic scale ice clouds also appear to nucleate heterogeneously; a variety of possible heterogeneous nuclei has been characterised by chemical analysis of the non-volatile fraction of the background aerosol; substantial formation of solid particles and denitrification via their sedimentation has been observed and model parameterizations have been improved. (3) Chemistry: strong evidence has been found for significant chlorine activation not only on polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) but also on cold binary aerosol; laboratory experiments and field data on the ClOOCl photolysis rate and other kinetic parameters have been shown to be consistent with an adequate degree of certainty; no evidence has been found that would support the existence of yet unknown chemical mechanisms making a significant contribution to polar ozone loss. (4) Global modelling: results from process studies have been implemented in a prognostic chemistry climate model (CCM); simulations with improved parameterisations of processes relevant for polar ozone depletion are evaluated against satellite data and other long term records using data assimilation and detrended fluctuation analysis. Finally, measurements and process studies within RECONCILE were also applied to the winter 2010/11, when special meteorological conditions led to the highest chemical ozone loss ever observed in the Arctic. In addition to quantifying the 2010/11 ozone loss and to understand its causes including possible connections to climate change, its impacts were addressed, such as changes in surface ultraviolet (UV) radiation in the densely populated northern mid-latitudes

Reconciliation of essential process parameters for an enhanced predictability of Arctic stratospheric ozone loss and its climate interactions : (RECONCILE) ; activities and results

The international research project RECONCILE has addressed central questions regarding polar ozone depletion, with the objective to quantify some of the most relevant yet still uncertain physical and chemical processes and thereby improve prognostic modelling capabilities to realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to climate change. This overview paper outlines the scope and the general approach of RECONCILE, and it provides a summary of observations and modelling in 2010 and 2011 that have generated an in many respects unprecedented dataset to study processes in the Arctic winter stratosphere. Principally, it summarises important outcomes of RECONCILE including (i) better constraints and enhanced consistency on the set of parameters governing catalytic ozone destruction cycles, (ii) a better understanding of the role of cold binary aerosols in heterogeneous chlorine activation, (iii) an improved scheme of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) processes that includes heterogeneous nucleation of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) and ice on non-volatile background aerosol leading to better model parameterisations with respect to denitrification, and (iv) long transient simulations with a chemistry-climate model (CCM) updated based on the results of RECONCILE that better reproduce past ozone trends in Antarctica and are deemed to produce more reliable predictions of future ozone trends. The process studies and the global simulations conducted in RECONCILE show that in the Arctic, ozone depletion uncertainties in the chemical and microphysical processes are now clearly smaller than the sensitivity to dynamic variability

Development of a Nomogram Predicting the Risk of Persistence/Recurrence of Cervical Dysplasia

Background: Cervical dysplasia persistence/recurrence has a great impact on women's health and quality of life. In this study, we investigated whether a prognostic nomogram may improve risk assessment after primary conization. Methods: This is a retrospective multi-institutional study based on charts of consecutive patients undergoing conization between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2014. A nomogram assessing the importance of different variables was built. A cohort of patients treated between 1 January 2015 and 30 June 2016 was used to validate the nomogram. Results: A total of 2966 patients undergoing primary conization were analyzed. The median (range) patient age was 40 (18-89) years. At 5-year of follow-up, 6% of patients (175/2966) had developed a persistent/recurrent cervical dysplasia. Median (range) recurrence-free survival was 18 (5-52) months. Diagnosis of CIN3, presence of HR-HPV types, positive endocervical margins, HPV persistence, and the omission of HPV vaccination after conization increased significantly and independently of the risk of developing cervical dysplasia persistence/recurrence. A nomogram weighting the impact of all variables was built with a C-Index of 0.809. A dataset of 549 patients was used to validate the nomogram, with a C-index of 0.809. Conclusions: The present nomogram represents a useful tool for counseling women about their risk of persistence/recurrence after primary conization. HPV vaccination after conization is associated with a reduced risk of CIN2+

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries(1,2). However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world(3) and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health(4,5). However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular riskchanged from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.Peer reviewe

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks