Time-Series Adaptive Estimation of Vaccination Uptake Using Web Search Queries

Estimating vaccination uptake is an integral part of ensuring public health. It was recently shown that vaccination uptake can be estimated automatically from web data, instead of slowly collected clinical records or population surveys. All prior work in this area assumes that features of vaccination uptake collected from the web are temporally regular. We present the first ever method to remove this assumption from vaccination uptake estimation: our method dynamically adapts to temporal fluctuations in time series web data used to estimate vaccination uptake. We show our method to outperform the state of the art compared to competitive baselines that use not only web data but also curated clinical data. This performance improvement is more pronounced for vaccines whose uptake has been irregular due to negative media attention (HPV-1 and HPV-2), problems in vaccine supply (DiTeKiPol), and targeted at children of 12 years old (whose vaccination is more irregular compared to younger children)

Forecasting the COVID-19 vaccine uptake rate: an infodemiological study in the US

A year following the initial COVID-19 outbreak in China, many countries have approved emergency vaccines. Public-health practitioners and policymakers must understand the predicted populational willingness for vaccines and implement relevant stimulation measures. This study developed a framework for predicting vaccination uptake rate based on traditional clinical data–involving an autoregressive model with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA)–and innovative web search queries–involving a linear regression with ordinary least squares/least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, and machine-learning with boost and random forest. For accuracy, we implemented a stacking regression for the clinical data and web search queries. The stacked regression of ARIMA (1,0,8) for clinical data and boost with support vector machine for web data formed the best model for forecasting vaccination speed in the US. The stacked regression provided a more accurate forecast. These results can help governments and policymakers predict vaccine demand and finance relevant programs

Seasonal Web Search Query Selection for Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) Estimation

Influenza-like illness (ILI) estimation from web search data is an important web analytics task. The basic idea is to use the frequencies of queries in web search logs that are correlated with past ILI activity as features when estimating current ILI activity. It has been noted that since influenza is seasonal, this approach can lead to spurious correlations with features/queries that also exhibit seasonality, but have no relationship with ILI. Spurious correlations can, in turn, degrade performance. To address this issue, we propose modeling the seasonal variation in ILI activity and selecting queries that are correlated with the residual of the seasonal model and the observed ILI signal. Experimental results show that re-ranking queries obtained by Google Correlate based on their correlation with the residual strongly favours ILI-related queries

Predicting antimicrobial drug consumption using web search data

Consumption of antimicrobial drugs, such as antibiotics, is linked with antimicrobial resistance. Surveillance of antimicrobial drug consumption is therefore an important element in dealing with antimicrobial resistance. Many countries lack sufficient surveillance systems. Usage of web mined data therefore has the potential to improve current surveillance methods. To this end, we study how well antimicrobial drug consumption can be predicted based on web search queries, compared to historical purchase data of antimicrobial drugs. We present two prediction models (linear Elastic Net, and nonlinear Gaussian Processes), which we train and evaluate on almost 6 years of weekly antimicrobial drug consumption data from Denmark and web search data from Google Health Trends. We present a novel method of selecting web search queries by considering diseases and drugs linked to antimicrobials, as well as professional and layman descriptions of antimicrobial drugs, all of which we mine from the open web. We find that predictions based on web search data are marginally more erroneous but overall on a par with predictions based on purchases of antimicrobial drugs. This marginal difference corresponds to < 1% point mean absolute error in weekly usage. Best predictions are reported when combining both web search and purchase data. This study contributes a novel alternative solution to the real-life problem of predicting (and hence monitoring) antimicrobial drug consumption, which is particularly valuable in countries/states lacking centralised and timely surveillance systems

VaxInsight: an artificial intelligence system to access large-scale public perceptions of vaccination from social media

Vaccination is considered one of the greatest public health achievements of the 20th century. A high vaccination rate is required to reduce the prevalence and incidence of vaccine-preventable diseases. However, in the last two decades, there has been a significant and increasing number of people who refuse or delay getting vaccinated and who prohibit their children from receiving vaccinations. Importantly, under-vaccination is associated with infectious disease outbreaks. A good understanding of public perceptions regarding vaccinations is important if we are to develop effective vaccination promotion strategies. Traditional methods of research, such as surveys, suffer limitations that impede our understanding of public perceptions, including resources cost, delays in data collection and analysis, especially in large samples. The popularity of social media (e.g. Twitter), combined with advances in artificial intelligence algorithms (e.g. natural language processing, deep learning), open up new avenues for accessing large scale data on public perceptions related to vaccinations. This dissertation reports on an original and systematic effort to develop artificial intelligence algorithms that will increase our ability to use Twitter discussions to understand vaccine-related perceptions and intentions. The research is framed within the perspectives offered by grounded behavior change theories. Tweets concerning the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine were used to accomplish three major aims: 1) Develop a deep learning-based system to better understand public perceptions of the HPV vaccine, using Twitter data and behavior change theories; 2) Develop a deep learning-based system to infer Twitter users’ demographic characteristics (e.g. gender and home location) and investigate demographic differences in public perceptions of the HPV vaccine; 3) Develop a web-based interactive visualization system to monitor real-time Twitter discussions of the HPV vaccine. For Aim 1, the bi-directional long short-term memory (LSTM) network with attention mechanism outperformed traditional machine learning and competitive deep learning algorithms in mapping Twitter discussions to the theoretical constructs of behavior change theories. Domain-specific embedding trained on HPV vaccine-related Twitter corpus by fastText algorithms further improved performance on some tasks. Time series analyses revealed evolving trends of public perceptions regarding the HPV vaccine. For Aim 2, the character-based convolutional neural network model achieved favorable state-of-the-art performance in Twitter gender inference on a Public Author Profiling challenge. The trained models then were applied to the Twitter corpus and they identified gender differences in public perceptions of the HPV vaccine. The findings on gender differences were largely consistent with previous survey-based studies. For the Twitter users’ home location inference, geo-tagging was framed as text classification tasks that resulted in a character-based recurrent neural network model. The model outperformed machine learning and deep learning baselines on home location tagging. Interstate variations in public perceptions of the HPV vaccine also were identified. For Aim 3, a prototype web-based interactive dashboard, VaxInsight, was built to synthesize HPV vaccine-related Twitter discussions in a comprehendible format. The usability test of VaxInsight showed high usability of the system. Notably, this maybe the first study to use deep learning algorithms to understand Twitter discussions of the HPV vaccine within the perspective of grounded behavior change theories. VaxInsight is also the first system that allows users to explore public health beliefs of vaccine related topics from Twitter. Thus, the present research makes original and systematical contributions to medical informatics by combining cutting-edge artificial intelligence algorithms and grounded behavior change theories. This work also builds a foundation for the next generation of real-time public health surveillance and research

Human behavior in the time of COVID-19: Learning from big data

Since the World Health Organization (WHO) characterized COVID-19 as a pandemic in March 2020, there have been over 600 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than six million deaths as of October 2022. The relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and human behavior is complicated. On one hand, human behavior is found to shape the spread of the disease. On the other hand, the pandemic has impacted and even changed human behavior in almost every aspect. To provide a holistic understanding of the complex interplay between human behavior and the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers have been employing big data techniques such as natural language processing, computer vision, audio signal processing, frequent pattern mining, and machine learning. In this study, we present an overview of the existing studies on using big data techniques to study human behavior in the time of the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we categorize these studies into three groups—using big data to measure, model, and leverage human behavior, respectively. The related tasks, data, and methods are summarized accordingly. To provide more insights into how to fight the COVID-19 pandemic and future global catastrophes, we further discuss challenges and potential opportunities

Social media and internet search data to inform drug utilization: A systematic scoping review

IntroductionDrug utilization is currently assessed through traditional data sources such as big electronic medical records (EMRs) databases, surveys, and medication sales. Social media and internet data have been reported to provide more accessible and more timely access to medications' utilization.ObjectiveThis review aims at providing evidence comparing web data on drug utilization to other sources before the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsWe searched Medline, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Scopus until November 25th, 2019, using a predefined search strategy. Two independent reviewers conducted screening and data extraction.ResultsOf 6,563 (64%) deduplicated publications retrieved, 14 (0.2%) were included. All studies showed positive associations between drug utilization information from web and comparison data using very different methods. A total of nine (64%) studies found positive linear correlations in drug utilization between web and comparison data. Five studies reported association using other methods: One study reported similar drug popularity rankings using both data sources. Two studies developed prediction models for future drug consumption, including both web and comparison data, and two studies conducted ecological analyses but did not quantitatively compare data sources. According to the STROBE, RECORD, and RECORD-PE checklists, overall reporting quality was mediocre. Many items were left blank as they were out of scope for the type of study investigated.ConclusionOur results demonstrate the potential of web data for assessing drug utilization, although the field is still in a nascent period of investigation. Ultimately, social media and internet search data could be used to get a quick preliminary quantification of drug use in real time. Additional studies on the topic should use more standardized methodologies on different sets of drugs in order to confirm these findings. In addition, currently available checklists for study quality of reporting would need to be adapted to these new sources of scientific information

Statistical physics of vaccination

Historically, infectious diseases caused considerable damage to human societies, and they continue to do so today. To help reduce their impact, mathematical models of disease transmission have been studied to help understand disease dynamics and inform prevention strategies. Vaccination–one of the most important preventive measures of modern times–is of great interest both theoretically and empirically. And in contrast to traditional approaches, recent research increasingly explores the pivotal implications of individual behavior and heterogeneous contact patterns in populations. Our report reviews the developmental arc of theoretical epidemiology with emphasis on vaccination, as it led from classical models assuming homogeneously mixing (mean-field) populations and ignoring human behavior, to recent models that account for behavioral feedback and/or population spatial/social structure. Many of the methods used originated in statistical physics, such as lattice and network models, and their associated analytical frameworks. Similarly, the feedback loop between vaccinating behavior and disease propagation forms a coupled nonlinear system with analogs in physics. We also review the new paradigm of digital epidemiology, wherein sources of digital data such as online social media are mined for high-resolution information on epidemiologically relevant individual behavior. Armed with the tools and concepts of statistical physics, and further assisted by new sources of digital data, models that capture nonlinear interactions between behavior and disease dynamics offer a novel way of modeling real-world phenomena, and can help improve health outcomes. We conclude the review by discussing open problems in the field and promising directions for future research