The effect of Covid-19 on alcohol use disorder and role of universal alcohol screening in an inpatient setting: a retrospective cohort control study

AimTo assess the impact of Covid-19 on alcohol use disorders (AUD) and the role of universal alcohol screening (UAS) in an inpatient setting.MethodsRetrospective cohorts were defined as pre-pandemic and pandemic admitted to Nottingham University Hospitals (April to October; 2019 and 2020) and had alcohol assessment by AUDIT-C. AUDIT-C score was assessed against age, sex, ethnicity, admission type, speciality and primary diagnosis of mental disorders. Subgroup analysis for Covid-19 positive patients was performed.ResultsA total of 63,927 admissions (47,954 patients) were included. The pandemic period compared to pre-pandemic had fewer overall admissions (27,349 vs 36,578, P < 0.001), fewer with AUD (17.6% vs 18.4%, P = 0.008) but a higher proportion of alcohol dependents (3.7% vs 3.0%, P < 0.0001). In the pandemic those with AUD were more likely to be male (P = 0.003), white (P < 0.001), in relationship (P < 0.001), of higher socioeconomic background (P < 0.001), have alcohol-related mental disorders (P = 0.002), emergency admission (P < 0.001), medical speciality admission (P < 0.001) and shorter length of stay (P < 0.033) compared to pre-pandemic AUD. Covid-19 positive patients with concomitant AUD died at younger age (P < 0.05) than Covid-19 positive patients at low risk for AUD.ConclusionsThe pandemic changed the characteristics of inpatients with AUD. There was a higher proportion of alcohol-dependent admissions with evidence that a younger, less deprived group have been significantly impacted. UAS provides a useful tool to screen for AUD and to identify the change when facing sudden health crises

Prognostic non-invasive biomarkers for all-cause mortality in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) represents a growing public health concern, with patients having higher risk of morbidity and mortality. It has a considerably high prevalence in the general population, estimated 20%-40% in Europe, and is asymptomatic until late in the disease course. It is therefore important to identify and validate tools that predict hard outcomes such as mortality for use in clinical practice in risk-stratifying NAFLD patients. AIM To evaluate available evidence on the use of non-invasive test(s) as prognostic factors for mortality in NAFLD. METHODS We performed electronic searches of Medline and EMBASE (Ovid) until 7th January 2021 of studies in NAFLD populations. Prognostic markers included serum biomarkers, non-invasive scoring systems, and non-invasive imaging. The population included all spectrums of disease severity, including NAFLD and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH). Outcomes included all-cause, and cardiovascular mortality. All non-invasive tests were synthesised in a narrative systematic review. Finally, we conducted a meta-analysis of non-invasive scoring systems for predicting all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, calculating pooled hazard ratios and 95% confidence (STATA 16.1). RESULTS Database searches identified 2850 studies – 24 were included. 16 studies reported non-invasive scoring systems, 10 studies reported individual biomarkers, and 1 study reported imaging modalities. 4 studies on non-invasive scoring systems (6324 participants) had data available for inclusion in the meta-analysis. The non-invasive scoring system that performed best at predicting all-cause mortality was NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS) [pHR 3.07 (1.62-5.83)], followed by fibrosis-4 index [pHR 3.06 (1.54-6.07)], BARD [pHR 2.87 (1.27-6.46)], and AST to platelet ratio index [pHR 1.90 (1.32-2.73)]. NFS was also prognostic of cardiovascular-related mortality [pHR 3.09 (1.78-5.34)]. CONCLUSION This study reaffirms that non-invasive scoring systems, especially NFS, are reliable prognostic markers of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality in NAFLD patients. These findings can inform clinical practice in risk stratifying NAFLD patients

Incidence and prevalence of venous thromboembolism in chronic liver disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background and Aims: Historically, bleeding was thought to be a frequent and fatal complication of liver disease. However, thrombosis due to coagulation disorders in cirrhosis remains a real risk. We aim to systematically analyse published articles to evaluate epidemiology of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in chronic liver disease (CLD). Method: Electronic search was conducted on Ovid Medline, EMBASE and Scopus from inception to November 2021 to identify studies presenting epidemiology VTE (deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism) in CLD in inpatients and/or community settings. Random-effects meta-analysis was performed to determine pooled per-year cumulative incidence, incidence rate and prevalence. Heterogeneity was measured by I² test, and, potential sources of heterogeneity by meta-regression and sensitivity analysis. PROSPERO registration-CRD42021239117. Results: Twenty-nine studies comprising 19,157,018 participants were included, of which 15,2049 (0.79%) had VTE. None of included the studies were done in the community. In hospitalised patients with CLD: pooled cumulative incidence of VTE was 1.07% (95%CI 0.80,1.38) per-year, incidence rate was 157.15 (95%CI 14.74,445.29) per 10,000 person-years, and period prevalence was 1.10% (95%CI 0.85,1.38) per year. There was significant heterogeneity and publication bias. Pooled relative risk (RR) of studies reporting incidence rate was 2.11 (95%CI 1.35,3.31). CLD patients (n=1644), who did not receive pharmacological prophylaxis were at 2.78 times (95% CI 1.11, 6.98) increased risk of VTE compared to those receiving prophylaxis. Conclusion: Hospitalised patients with CLD may be at an increased risk of VTE . For every 1000 hospitalised patients with CLD ten have new, and eleven have pre-existing diagnoses of VTE per-year

Vesicoamniotic Shunting Improves Outcomes in a Subset of Prune Belly Syndrome Patients at a Single Tertiary Center

Objective: Review outcomes of Prune Belly Syndrome (PBS) with the hypothesis that contemporary management improves mortality.Methods: A retrospective chart review of inpatient and outpatient PBS patients referred between 2000 and 2018 was conducted to assess outcomes at our institution. Data collected included age at diagnosis, concomitant medical conditions, imaging, operative management, length of follow-up, and renal function.Results: Forty-five PBS patients presented during these 18 years. Prenatal diagnoses were made in 17 (39%); 65% of these patients underwent prenatal intervention. The remaining patients were diagnosed in the infant period (20, 44%) or after 1 year of age (8, 18%). Twelve patients died from cardiopulmonary complications in the neonatal period; the neonatal mortality rate was 27%. The mean follow-up among patients surviving the neonatal period was 84 months. Forty-two patients had at least one renal ultrasound (RUS); of the 30 patients with NICU RUSs, 26 (89%) had hydronephrosis and/or ureterectasis. Of the 39 patients who underwent voiding cystourethrogram (VCUG), 28 (62%) demonstrated VUR. Fifty-nine percent had respiratory distress. Nine patients (20%) were oxygen-dependent by completion of follow up. Thirty-eight patients (84%) had other congenital malformations including genitourinary (GU) 67%, gastrointestinal (GI) 52%, and cardiac 48%. Sixteen patients (36%) had chronic kidney disease (CKD) of at least stage 3; three patients (7%) had received renal transplants. Eighty-four percent of patients had at least one surgery (mean 3.4, range 0–6). The most common was orchiopexy (71%). The next most common surgeries were vesicostomy (39%), ureteral reimplants (32%), abdominoplasty (29%), nephrectomy (25%), and appendicovesicostomy (21%). After stratifying patients according to Woodard classification, a trend for 12% improvement in mortality after VAS was noted in the Woodard Classification 1 cohort.Conclusions: PBS patients frequently have multiple congenital anomalies. Pulmonary complications are prevalent in the neonate while CKD (36%) is prevalent during late childhood. The risk of CKD increased significantly with the presence of other congenital anomalies in our cohort. Mortality in childhood is most common in infancy and may be as low as 27%. Contemporary management of PBS, including prenatal interventions, reduced the neonatal mortality rate in a subset of our cohort

Evaluating Natural History and Follow Up Strategies for Non-obstructive Urolithiasis in Pediatric Population

Objective: While small non-obstructive stones in the adult population are usually observed with minimal follow-up, the same guidelines for management in the pediatric population have not been well-studied. We evaluate the clinical outcomes of small non-obstructing kidney stones in the pediatric population to better define the natural history of the disease.Methods: In this IRB-approved retrospective study, patients with a diagnosis of kidney stones from January 2011 to March 2017 were identified using ICD9 and ICD10 codes. Patients with ureteral stones, obstruction, or stones &gt;5 mm in size were excluded. Patients with no follow-up after initial imaging were also excluded. Patients with a history of stones or prior stone interventions were included in our population. Frequency of follow-up ultrasounds while on observation were noted and any ER visits, stone passage episodes, infections, and surgical interventions were documented.Results: Over the 6-year study period, 106 patients with non-obstructing kidney stones were identified. The average age at diagnosis was 12.5 years and the average stone size was 3.6 mm. Average follow-up was 17 months. About half of the patients had spontaneous passage of stones (54/106) at an average time of 13 months after diagnosis. Stone location did not correlate with spontaneous passage rates. Only 6/106 (5.7%) patients required stone surgery with ureteroscopy and/or PCNL at an average time of 12 months after initial diagnosis. The indication for surgery in all 6 cases was pain. 17/106 (16%) patients developed febrile UTIs and a total of 43 ER visits for stone-related issues were noted, but no patients required urgent intervention for an infected obstructing stone. Median interval for follow-up was every 6 months with renal ultrasounds, which then was prolonged to annual follow up in most cases.Conclusions: The observation of pediatric patients with small non-obstructing stones is safe with no episodes of acute obstructive pyelonephritis occurring in these patients. The sole indication for intervention in our patient population was pain, which suggests that routine follow-up ultrasounds may not be necessary for the follow-up of pediatric non-obstructive renal stones ≤5 mm in size

Introducing the new paradigm of Social Dispersed Computing: Applications, Technologies and Challenges

[EN] If last decade viewed computational services as a utility then surely this decade has transformed computation into a commodity. Computation is now progressively integrated into the physical networks in a seamless way that enables cyber-physical systems (CPS) and the Internet of Things (IoT) meet their latency requirements. Similar to the concept of ¿platform as a service¿ or ¿software as a service¿, both cloudlets and fog computing have found their own use cases. Edge devices (that we call end or user devices for disambiguation) play the role of personal computers, dedicated to a user and to a set of correlated applications. In this new scenario, the boundaries between the network node, the sensor, and the actuator are blurring, driven primarily by the computation power of IoT nodes like single board computers and the smartphones. The bigger data generated in this type of networks needs clever, scalable, and possibly decentralized computing solutions that can scale independently as required. Any node can be seen as part of a graph, with the capacity to serve as a computing or network router node, or both. Complex applications can possibly be distributed over this graph or network of nodes to improve the overall performance like the amount of data processed over time. In this paper, we identify this new computing paradigm that we call Social Dispersed Computing, analyzing key themes in it that includes a new outlook on its relation to agent based applications. We architect this new paradigm by providing supportive application examples that include next generation electrical energy distribution networks, next generation mobility services for transportation, and applications for distributed analysis and identification of non-recurring traffic congestion in cities. The paper analyzes the existing computing paradigms (e.g., cloud, fog, edge, mobile edge, social, etc.), solving the ambiguity of their definitions; and analyzes and discusses the relevant foundational software technologies, the remaining challenges, and research opportunities.Garcia Valls, MS.; Dubey, A.; Botti, V. (2018). Introducing the new paradigm of Social Dispersed Computing: Applications, Technologies and Challenges. Journal of Systems Architecture. 91:83-102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sysarc.2018.05.007S831029

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

BACKGROUND: Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2·9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2·9-3·0) for men and 3·5 years (3·4-3·7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0·85 years (0·78-0·92) and 1·2 years (1·1-1·3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. INTERPRETATION: Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Forouzanfar MH, Afshin A, Alexander LT, et al. Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. LANCET. 2016;388(10053):1659-1724.Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57.8% (95% CI 56.6-58.8) of global deaths and 41.2% (39.8-42.8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211.8 million [192.7 million to 231.1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148.6 million [134.2 million to 163.1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143.1 million [125.1 million to 163.5 million]), high BMI (120.1 million [83.8 million to 158.4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113.3 million [103.9 million to 123.4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103.1 million [90.8 million to 115.1 million]), high total cholesterol (88.7 million [74.6 million to 105.7 million]), household air pollution (85.6 million [66.7 million to 106.1 million]), alcohol use (85.0 million [77.2 million to 93.0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83.0 million [49.3 million to 127.5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd

Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries : a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). Methods We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices. Findings In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59.3 (95% uncertainty interval 56.8-61.8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85.5 (84.2-86.5) in Iceland to 20.4 (15.4-24.9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r(2) = 0.88) and the MDG index (r(2) = 0.2), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r(2) = 0.79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7.9 (IQR 5.0-10.4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10.0 [6.7-13.1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5.5 [2.1-8.9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened. Interpretation GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61.7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61.4-61.9) in 1980 to 71.8 years (71.5-72.2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11.3 years (3.7-17.4), to 62.6 years (56.5-70.2). Total deaths increased by 4.1% (2.6-5.6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55.8 million (54.9 million to 56.6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17.0% (15.8-18.1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14.1% (12.6-16.0) to 39.8 million (39.2 million to 40.5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13.1% (11.9-14.3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42.1%, 39.1-44.6), malaria (43.1%, 34.7-51.8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29.8%, 24.8-34.9), and maternal disorders (29.1%, 19.3-37.1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe