Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODErn), to generate cause fractions and cause specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NC Ds) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72.5-74.1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 186% (17.9-19.6), and injuries 8.0% (7.7-8.2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22.7% (21.5-23.9), representing an additional 7.61 million (7. 20-8.01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7.9% (7.08.8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 222% (20.0-24.0) and the death rate by 31.8% (30.1-33.3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2.3% (0-5-4-0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13.7% (12.2-15.1) to 57.9 deaths (55.9-59.2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118.0% (88.8-148.6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36.4% (32.2-40.6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33.6% (31.2-36.1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respirator}, infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990 neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of 'leaving no one behind', it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator

Determinant factors of immediate outcomes of Neonatal Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Gondar, Ethiopia

Introduction: Respiratory Distress Syndrome (RDS) is a frequent neonatal emergency worldwide. The prevalence varies with gestational age (GA) being higher among preterm babies. Preterm birth is the world’s primary cause of newborn deaths and RDS is the leading cause of death in premature infants, including in Ethiopia. Objectives: To identify the determinant factors of the immediate outcomes of RDS in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), University of Gondar Specialized and Comprehensive Hospital (UoGSCH). Method: A hospital-based prospective descriptive analytical cross-sectional study was conducted from February to September 2020. Results: A total of 162 neonates were enrolled; there were 87 (53.7%) males and 75 (46.3%) females. Of these 106 (65.4%) were discharged with improvement, 4 (2.5%) discharged with complications, and 52 (32.0%) died; 50% of deaths occurred within the first 24 hours of age. The odds of mortality for those admitted below 6 hours of age was 6.14 times higher (AOR=6.14, 95% CI:1.63 23.03) than those admitted aged 6 hours and above. Babies born to primiparous mothers were more than twice as likely to die (AOR=2.49, 95% CI:1.05 5.87) than babies born to multiparous mothers. Neonates who were delivered in other facilities had 3.78 times increased odds of mortality (AOR=3.78, 95% CI: 1.23 11.57). Conclusion: Age at admission, site of referral, parity and gestational age (GA) had a significant association with neonatal mortality due to RDS

Determinant factors of immediate outcomes of Neonatal Respiratory Distress Syndrome in Gondar, Ethiopia

Introduction: Respiratory Distress Syndrome (RDS) is a frequent neonatal emergency worldwide. The prevalence varies with gestational age (GA) being higher among preterm babies. Preterm birth is the world’s primary cause of newborn deaths and RDS is the leading cause of death in premature infants, including in Ethiopia. Objectives: To identify the determinant factors of the immediate outcomes of RDS in the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), University of Gondar Specialized and Comprehensive Hospital (UoGSCH). Method: A hospital-based prospective descriptive analytical cross-sectional study was conducted from February to September 2020. Results: A total of 162 neonates were enrolled; there were 87 (53.7%) males and 75 (46.3%) females. Of these 106 (65.4%) were discharged with improvement, 4 (2.5%) discharged with complications, and 52 (32.0%) died; 50% of deaths occurred within the first 24 hours of age. The odds of mortality for those admitted below 6 hours of age was 6.14 times higher (AOR=6.14, 95% CI:1.63 23.03) than those admitted aged 6 hours and above. Babies born to primiparous mothers were more than twice as likely to die (AOR=2.49, 95% CI:1.05 5.87) than babies born to multiparous mothers. Neonates who were delivered in other facilities had 3.78 times increased odds of mortality (AOR=3.78, 95% CI: 1.23 11.57). Conclusion: Age at admission, site of referral, parity and gestational age (GA) had a significant association with neonatal mortality due to RDS

Determinants of adverse birth outcome in Sub-Saharan Africa: analysis of recent demographic and health surveys

Abstract Background More than 75% of neonatal deaths occurred in the first weeks of life as a result of adverse birth outcomes. Low birth weight, preterm births are associated with a variety of acute and long-term complications. In Sub-Saharan Africa, there is insufficient evidence of adverse birth outcomes. Hence, this study aimed to determine the pooled prevalence and determinants of adverse birth outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa. Method Data of this study were obtained from a cross-sectional survey of the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) of ten Sub-African (SSA) countries. A total of 76,853 children born five years preceding the survey were included in the final analysis. A Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) were fitted and an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with a 95% Confidence Interval (CI) was computed to declare statistically significant determinants of adverse birth outcomes. Result The pooled prevalence of adverse birth outcomes were 29.7% (95% CI: 29.4 to 30.03). Female child (AOR = 0.94, 95%CI: 0.91 0.97), women attended secondary level of education (AOR = 0.87, 95%CI: 0.82 0.92), middle (AOR = 0.94,95%CI: 0.90 0.98) and rich socioeconomic status (AOR = 0.94, 95%CI: 0.90 0.99), intimate-partner physical violence (beating) (AOR = 1.18, 95%CI: 1.14 1.22), big problems of long-distance travel (AOR = 1.08, 95%CI: 1.04 1.11), antenatal care follow-ups (AOR = 0.86, 95%CI: 0.83 0.86), multiparty (AOR = 0.88, 95%CI: 0.84 0.91), twin births (AOR = 2.89, 95%CI: 2.67 3.14), and lack of women involvement in healthcare decision-making process (AOR = 1.10, 95%CI: 1.06 1.13) were determinants of adverse birth outcomes. Conclusion This study showed that the magnitude of adverse birth outcomes was high, abnormal baby size and preterm births were the most common adverse birth outcomes. This finding suggests that encouraging antenatal care follow-ups and socio-economic conditions of women are essential. Moreover, special attention should be given to multiple pregnancies, improving healthcare accessibilities to rural areas, and women’s involvement in healthcare decision-making

Prevalence of low birth weight and its associated factor at birth in Sub-Saharan Africa: A generalized linear mixed model.

BackgroundLow birth weight (LBW) is one of the major determinants of perinatal survival, infant morbidity, and mortality, as well as the risk of developmental disabilities and illnesses in future lives. Though studies were conducted to assess the magnitude and associated factors of low birth weight, most of the studies were at a single center and little information on the regional level. Hence, this study assessed the prevalence and associated factors of low birth weight in Sub-Saharan countries.MethodThis study was based on secondary data sources from 35 Sub-Saharan countries' Demography and Health Survey (DHS). For this study, we used the Kids Record (KR file) data set. In the KR file, all under-five children who were born in the last five years preceding the survey in the selected enumeration area who had birth weight data were included for the study. To identify determinants of low birth weight multivariable mixed-effect logistic regression model fitted. Adjusted Odds Ratios (AOR) with a 95% Confidence Interval (CI) and p-value ≤0.05 in the multivariable model were used to declare significant factors associated with low birth weight at birth.ResultThe pooled prevalence of newborn babies' low birth weight measured at birth in Sub-Saharan Africa was 9.76% with (95% CI: 9.63% to 9.89%). Female child, women not participated in healthcare decision making, and wider birth intervals, divorced/ separated women, and twin pregnancies associated with increased occurrences of low birth weight, while some level of woman and husband education, antenatal care visits, older maternal age, and multiparity associated with reduced occurrence low birth weight.ConclusionThis study revealed that the magnitude of low birth weight was high in sub-Saharan Africa countries. Therefore, the finding suggests that more emphasis is important for women with a lack of support, multiples, and healthcare decision-making problems

Traditional herbal medicine use doubled the risk of multi-organ dysfunction syndrome in children: A prospective cohort study.

BackgroundTraditional herbal medicine (THM) is frequently used in pediatric populations in many low-income countries as a form of healthcare and has been associated with a range of adverse events, including liver toxicity, renal failure, and allergic reactions. Despite these concerns, its impact on multi-organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) risk has not been thoroughly investigated.ObjectiveThis study aimed to investigate the incidence and predictors of MODS in a pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) in Ethiopia, with a focus on the association between THM use and the risk of MODS.MethodsThis was a single-center prospective cohort study conducted at a PICU in the university of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized hospital, Northwest Ethiopia. The study enrolled eligible patients aged one month to 18 years admitted to the PICU during the study period. Data on demographic characteristics, medical history, clinical and laboratory data, and outcome measures using standard case record forms, physical examination, and patient document reviews. The predictors of MODS were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models, with a focus on the association between traditional herbal medicine use and the risk of MODS.ResultsA total of 310 patients were included in the final analysis, with a median age of 48 months and a male-to-female ratio of 1.5:1. The proportion and incidence of MODS were 30.96% (95% CI:25.8, 36.6) and 7.71(95% CI: 6.10, 9.40) per 100-person-day observation respectively. Renal failure (17.74%), neurologic failure (15.16%), and heart failure (14.52%) were the leading organ failures identified. Nearly one-third of patients (32.9%) died in the PICU, of which 59.8% had MODS. The rate of mortality was higher in patients with MODS than in those without. The Cox proportional hazards model identified renal disease (AHR = 6.32 (95%CI: 3.17,12.61)), intake of traditional herbal medication (AHR = 2.45, 95% CI:1.29,4.65), modified Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 (mPIM 2) score (AHR = 1.54 (95% CI: 1.38,1.71), and critical illness diagnoses (AHR = 2.68 (95% CI: 1.77,4.07)) as predictors of MODS.ConclusionThe incidence of MODS was high. Renal disease, THM use, mPIM 2 scores, and critical illness diagnoses were independent predictors of MODS. A more than twofold increase in the risk of MODS was seen in patients who used TMH. Healthcare providers should be aware of risks associated with THM, and educate caregivers about the potential harms of these products. Future studies with larger sample sizes and more comprehensive outcome measures are needed

Kaplan Meier estimate curve for critical illness diagnosis as a predictor of MODS.

Kaplan Meier estimate curve for critical illness diagnosis as a predictor of MODS.</p