Fitting the HIV Epidemic in Zambia: A Two-Sex Micro-Simulation Model

BACKGROUND: In describing and understanding how the HIV epidemic spreads in African countries, previous studies have not taken into account the detailed periods at risk. This study is based on a micro-simulation model (individual-based) of the spread of the HIV epidemic in the population of Zambia, where women tend to marry early and where divorces are not frequent. The main target of the model was to fit the HIV seroprevalence profiles by age and sex observed at the Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 2001. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A two-sex micro-simulation model of HIV transmission was developed. Particular attention was paid to precise age-specific estimates of exposure to risk through the modelling of the formation and dissolution of relationships: marriage (stable union), casual partnership, and commercial sex. HIV transmission was exclusively heterosexual for adults or vertical (mother-to-child) for children. Three stages of HIV infection were taken into account. All parameters were derived from empirical population-based data. Results show that basic parameters could not explain the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in Zambia. In order to fit the age and sex patterns, several assumptions were made: differential susceptibility of young women to HIV infection, differential susceptibility or larger number of encounters for male clients of commercial sex workers, and higher transmission rate. The model allowed to quantify the role of each type of relationship in HIV transmission, the proportion of infections occurring at each stage of disease progression, and the net reproduction rate of the epidemic (R(0) = 1.95). CONCLUSIONS: The simulation model reproduced the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in Zambia, and fitted the age and sex pattern of HIV seroprevalence in 2001. The same model could be used to measure the effect of changing behaviour in the future

Human genome meeting 2016 : Houston, TX, USA. 28 February - 2 March 2016

: O1 The metabolomics approach to autism: identification of biomarkers for early detection of autism spectrum disorder A. K. Srivastava, Y. Wang, R. Huang, C. Skinner, T. Thompson, L. Pollard, T. Wood, F. Luo, R. Stevenson O2 Phenome-wide association study for smoking- and drinking-associated genes in 26,394 American women with African, Asian, European, and Hispanic descents R. Polimanti, J. Gelernter O3 Effects of prenatal environment, genotype and DNA methylation on birth weight and subsequent postnatal outcomes: findings from GUSTO, an Asian birth cohort X. Lin, I. Y. Lim, Y. Wu, A. L. Teh, L. Chen, I. M. Aris, S. E. Soh, M. T. Tint, J. L. MacIsaac, F. Yap, K. Kwek, S. M. Saw, M. S. Kobor, M. J. Meaney, K. M. Godfrey, Y. S. Chong, J. D. Holbrook, Y. S. Lee, P. D. Gluckman, N. Karnani, GUSTO study group O4 High-throughput identification of specific qt interval modulating enhancers at the SCN5A locus A. Kapoor, D. Lee, A. Chakravarti O5 Identification of extracellular matrix components inducing cancer cell migration in the supernatant of cultivated mesenchymal stem cells C. Maercker, F. Graf, M. Boutros O6 Single cell allele specific expression (ASE) IN T21 and common trisomies: a novel approach to understand DOWN syndrome and other aneuploidies G. Stamoulis, F. Santoni, P. Makrythanasis, A. Letourneau, M. Guipponi, N. Panousis, M. Garieri, P. Ribaux, E. Falconnet, C. Borel, S. E. Antonarakis O7 Role of microRNA in LCL to IPSC reprogramming S. Kumar, J. Curran, J. Blangero O8 Multiple enhancer variants disrupt gene regulatory network in Hirschsprung disease S. Chatterjee, A. Kapoor, J. Akiyama, D. Auer, C. Berrios, L. Pennacchio, A. Chakravarti O9 Metabolomic profiling for the diagnosis of neurometabolic disorders T. R. Donti, G. Cappuccio, M. Miller, P. Atwal, A. Kennedy, A. Cardon, C. Bacino, L. Emrick, J. Hertecant, F. Baumer, B. Porter, M. Bainbridge, P. Bonnen, B. Graham, R. Sutton, Q. Sun, S. Elsea O10 A novel causal methylation network approach to Alzheimer’s disease Z. Hu, P. Wang, Y. Zhu, J. Zhao, M. Xiong, David A Bennett O11 A microRNA signature identifies subtypes of triple-negative breast cancer and reveals MIR-342-3P as regulator of a lactate metabolic pathway A. Hidalgo-Miranda, S. Romero-Cordoba, S. Rodriguez-Cuevas, R. Rebollar-Vega, E. Tagliabue, M. Iorio, E. D’Ippolito, S. Baroni O12 Transcriptome analysis identifies genes, enhancer RNAs and repetitive elements that are recurrently deregulated across multiple cancer types B. Kaczkowski, Y. Tanaka, H. Kawaji, A. Sandelin, R. Andersson, M. Itoh, T. Lassmann, the FANTOM5 consortium, Y. Hayashizaki, P. Carninci, A. R. R. Forrest O13 Elevated mutation and widespread loss of constraint at regulatory and architectural binding sites across 11 tumour types C. A. Semple O14 Exome sequencing provides evidence of pathogenicity for genes implicated in colorectal cancer E. A. Rosenthal, B. Shirts, L. Amendola, C. Gallego, M. Horike-Pyne, A. Burt, P. Robertson, P. Beyers, C. Nefcy, D. Veenstra, F. Hisama, R. Bennett, M. Dorschner, D. Nickerson, J. Smith, K. Patterson, D. Crosslin, R. Nassir, N. Zubair, T. Harrison, U. Peters, G. Jarvik, NHLBI GO Exome Sequencing Project O15 The tandem duplicator phenotype as a distinct genomic configuration in cancer F. Menghi, K. Inaki, X. Woo, P. Kumar, K. Grzeda, A. Malhotra, H. Kim, D. Ucar, P. Shreckengast, K. Karuturi, J. Keck, J. Chuang, E. T. Liu O16 Modeling genetic interactions associated with molecular subtypes of breast cancer B. Ji, A. Tyler, G. Ananda, G. Carter O17 Recurrent somatic mutation in the MYC associated factor X in brain tumors H. Nikbakht, M. Montagne, M. Zeinieh, A. Harutyunyan, M. Mcconechy, N. Jabado, P. Lavigne, J. Majewski O18 Predictive biomarkers to metastatic pancreatic cancer treatment J. B. Goldstein, M. Overman, G. Varadhachary, R. Shroff, R. Wolff, M. Javle, A. Futreal, D. Fogelman O19 DDIT4 gene expression as a prognostic marker in several malignant tumors L. Bravo, W. Fajardo, H. Gomez, C. Castaneda, C. Rolfo, J. A. Pinto O20 Spatial organization of the genome and genomic alterations in human cancers K. C. Akdemir, L. Chin, A. Futreal, ICGC PCAWG Structural Alterations Group O21 Landscape of targeted therapies in solid tumors S. Patterson, C. Statz, S. Mockus O22 Genomic analysis reveals novel drivers and progression pathways in skin basal cell carcinoma S. N. Nikolaev, X. I. Bonilla, L. Parmentier, B. King, F. Bezrukov, G. Kaya, V. Zoete, V. Seplyarskiy, H. Sharpe, T. McKee, A. Letourneau, P. Ribaux, K. Popadin, N. Basset-Seguin, R. Ben Chaabene, F. Santoni, M. Andrianova, M. Guipponi, M. Garieri, C. Verdan, K. Grosdemange, O. Sumara, M. Eilers, I. Aifantis, O. Michielin, F. de Sauvage, S. Antonarakis O23 Identification of differential biomarkers of hepatocellular carcinoma and cholangiocarcinoma via transcriptome microarray meta-analysis S. Likhitrattanapisal O24 Clinical validity and actionability of multigene tests for hereditary cancers in a large multi-center study S. Lincoln, A. Kurian, A. Desmond, S. Yang, Y. Kobayashi, J. Ford, L. Ellisen O25 Correlation with tumor ploidy status is essential for correct determination of genome-wide copy number changes by SNP array T. L. Peters, K. R. Alvarez, E. F. Hollingsworth, D. H. Lopez-Terrada O26 Nanochannel based next-generation mapping for interrogation of clinically relevant structural variation A. Hastie, Z. Dzakula, A. W. Pang, E. T. Lam, T. Anantharaman, M. Saghbini, H. Cao, BioNano Genomics O27 Mutation spectrum in a pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) cohort and identification of associated truncating mutations in TBX4 C. Gonzaga-Jauregui, L. Ma, A. King, E. Berman Rosenzweig, U. Krishnan, J. G. Reid, J. D. Overton, F. Dewey, W. K. Chung O28 NORTH CAROLINA macular dystrophy (MCDR1): mutations found affecting PRDM13 K. Small, A. DeLuca, F. Cremers, R. A. Lewis, V. Puech, B. Bakall, R. Silva-Garcia, K. Rohrschneider, M. Leys, F. S. Shaya, E. Stone O29 PhenoDB and genematcher, solving unsolved whole exome sequencing data N. L. Sobreira, F. Schiettecatte, H. Ling, E. Pugh, D. Witmer, K. Hetrick, P. Zhang, K. Doheny, D. Valle, A. Hamosh O30 Baylor-Johns Hopkins Center for Mendelian genomics: a four year review S. N. Jhangiani, Z. Coban Akdemir, M. N. Bainbridge, W. Charng, W. Wiszniewski, T. Gambin, E. Karaca, Y. Bayram, M. K. Eldomery, J. Posey, H. Doddapaneni, J. Hu, V. R. Sutton, D. M. Muzny, E. A. Boerwinkle, D. Valle, J. R. Lupski, R. A. Gibbs O31 Using read overlap assembly to accurately identify structural genetic differences in an ashkenazi jewish trio S. Shekar, W. Salerno, A. English, A. Mangubat, J. Bruestle O32 Legal interoperability: a sine qua non for international data sharing A. Thorogood, B. M. Knoppers, Global Alliance for Genomics and Health - Regulatory and Ethics Working Group O33 High throughput screening platform of competent sineups: that can enhance translation activities of therapeutic target H. Takahashi, K. R. Nitta, A. Kozhuharova, A. M. Suzuki, H. Sharma, D. Cotella, C. Santoro, S. Zucchelli, S. Gustincich, P. Carninci O34 The undiagnosed diseases network international (UDNI): clinical and laboratory research to meet patient needs J. J. Mulvihill, G. Baynam, W. Gahl, S. C. Groft, K. Kosaki, P. Lasko, B. Melegh, D. Taruscio O36 Performance of computational algorithms in pathogenicity predictions for activating variants in oncogenes versus loss of function mutations in tumor suppressor genes R. Ghosh, S. Plon O37 Identification and electronic health record incorporation of clinically actionable pharmacogenomic variants using prospective targeted sequencing S. Scherer, X. Qin, R. Sanghvi, K. Walker, T. Chiang, D. Muzny, L. Wang, J. Black, E. Boerwinkle, R. Weinshilboum, R. Gibbs O38 Melanoma reprogramming state correlates with response to CTLA-4 blockade in metastatic melanoma T. Karpinets, T. Calderone, K. Wani, X. Yu, C. Creasy, C. Haymaker, M. Forget, V. Nanda, J. Roszik, J. Wargo, L. Haydu, X. Song, A. Lazar, J. Gershenwald, M. Davies, C. Bernatchez, J. Zhang, A. Futreal, S. Woodman O39 Data-driven refinement of complex disease classification from integration of heterogeneous functional genomics data in GeneWeaver E. J. Chesler, T. Reynolds, J. A. Bubier, C. Phillips, M. A. Langston, E. J. Baker O40 A general statistic framework for genome-based disease risk prediction M. Xiong, L. Ma, N. Lin, C. Amos O41 Integrative large-scale causal network analysis of imaging and genomic data and its application in schizophrenia studies N. Lin, P. Wang, Y. Zhu, J. Zhao, V. Calhoun, M. Xiong O42 Big data and NGS data analysis: the cloud to the rescue O. Dobretsberger, M. Egger, F. Leimgruber O43 Cpipe: a convergent clinical exome pipeline specialised for targeted sequencing S. Sadedin, A. Oshlack, Melbourne Genomics Health Alliance O44 A Bayesian classification of biomedical images using feature extraction from deep neural networks implemented on lung cancer data V. A. A. Antonio, N. Ono, Clark Kendrick C. Go O45 MAV-SEQ: an interactive platform for the Management, Analysis, and Visualization of sequence data Z. Ahmed, M. Bolisetty, S. Zeeshan, E. Anguiano, D. Ucar O47 Allele specific enhancer in EPAS1 intronic regions may contribute to high altitude adaptation of Tibetans C. Zeng, J. Shao O48 Nanochannel based next-generation mapping for structural variation detection and comparison in trios and populations H. Cao, A. Hastie, A. W. Pang, E. T. Lam, T. Liang, K. Pham, M. Saghbini, Z. Dzakula O49 Archaic introgression in indigenous populations of Malaysia revealed by whole genome sequencing Y. Chee-Wei, L. Dongsheng, W. Lai-Ping, D. Lian, R. O. Twee Hee, Y. Yunus, F. Aghakhanian, S. S. Mokhtar, C. V. Lok-Yung, J. Bhak, M. Phipps, X. Shuhua, T. Yik-Ying, V. Kumar, H. Boon-Peng O50 Breast and ovarian cancer prevention: is it time for population-based mutation screening of high risk genes? I. Campbell, M.-A. Young, P. James, Lifepool O53 Comprehensive coverage from low DNA input using novel NGS library preparation methods for WGS and WGBS C. Schumacher, S. Sandhu, T. Harkins, V. Makarov O54 Methods for large scale construction of robust PCR-free libraries for sequencing on Illumina HiSeqX platform H. DoddapaneniR. Glenn, Z. Momin, B. Dilrukshi, H. Chao, Q. Meng, B. Gudenkauf, R. Kshitij, J. Jayaseelan, C. Nessner, S. Lee, K. Blankenberg, L. Lewis, J. Hu, Y. Han, H. Dinh, S. Jireh, K. Walker, E. Boerwinkle, D. Muzny, R. Gibbs O55 Rapid capture methods for clinical sequencing J. Hu, K. Walker, C. Buhay, X. Liu, Q. Wang, R. Sanghvi, H. Doddapaneni, Y. Ding, N. Veeraraghavan, Y. Yang, E. Boerwinkle, A. L. Beaudet, C. M. Eng, D. M. Muzny, R. A. Gibbs O56 A diploid personal human genome model for better genomes from diverse sequence data K. C. C. Worley, Y. Liu, D. S. T. Hughes, S. C. Murali, R. A. Harris, A. C. English, X. Qin, O. A. Hampton, P. Larsen, C. Beck, Y. Han, M. Wang, H. Doddapaneni, C. L. Kovar, W. J. Salerno, A. Yoder, S. Richards, J. Rogers, J. R. Lupski, D. M. Muzny, R. A. Gibbs O57 Development of PacBio long range capture for detection of pathogenic structural variants Q. Meng, M. Bainbridge, M. Wang, H. Doddapaneni, Y. Han, D. Muzny, R. Gibbs O58 Rhesus macaques exhibit more non-synonymous variation but greater impact of purifying selection than humans R. A. Harris, M. Raveenedran, C. Xue, M. Dahdouli, L. Cox, G. Fan, B. Ferguson, J. Hovarth, Z. Johnson, S. Kanthaswamy, M. Kubisch, M. Platt, D. Smith, E. Vallender, R. Wiseman, X. Liu, J. Below, D. Muzny, R. Gibbs, F. Yu, J. Rogers O59 Assessing RNA structure disruption induced by single-nucleotide variation J. Lin, Y. Zhang, Z. Ouyang P1 A meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of mitochondrial dna copy number A. Moore, Z. Wang, J. Hofmann, M. Purdue, R. Stolzenberg-Solomon, S. Weinstein, D. Albanes, C.-S. Liu, W.-L. Cheng, T.-T. Lin, Q. Lan, N. Rothman, S. Berndt P2 Missense polymorphic genetic combinations underlying down syndrome susceptibility E. S. Chen P4 The evaluation of alteration of ELAM-1 expression in the endometriosis patients H. Bahrami, A. Khoshzaban, S. Heidari Keshal P5 Obesity and the incidence of apolipoprotein E polymorphisms in an assorted population from Saudi Arabia population K. K. R. Alharbi P6 Genome-associated personalized antithrombotical therapy for patients with high risk of thrombosis and bleeding M. Zhalbinova, A. Akilzhanova, S. Rakhimova, M. Bekbosynova, S. Myrzakhmetova P7 Frequency of Xmn1 polymorphism among sickle cell carrier cases in UAE population M. Matar P8 Differentiating inflammatory bowel diseases by using genomic data: dimension of the problem and network organization N. Mili, R. Molinari, Y. Ma, S. Guerrier P9 Vulnerability of genetic variants to the risk of autism among Saudi children N. Elhawary, M. Tayeb, N. Bogari, N. Qotb P10 Chromatin profiles from ex vivo purified dopaminergic neurons establish a promising model to support studies of neurological function and dysfunction S. A. McClymont, P. W. Hook, L. A. Goff, A. McCallion P11 Utilization of a sensitized chemical mutagenesis screen to identify genetic modifiers of retinal dysplasia in homozygous Nr2e3rd7 mice Y. Kong, J. R. Charette, W. L. Hicks, J. K. Naggert, L. Zhao, P. M. Nishina P12 Ion torrent next generation sequencing of recessive polycystic kidney disease in Saudi patients B. M. Edrees, M. Athar, F. A. Al-Allaf, M. M. Taher, W. Khan, A. Bouazzaoui, N. A. Harbi, R. Safar, H. Al-Edressi, A. Anazi, N. Altayeb, M. A. Ahmed, K. Alansary, Z. Abduljaleel P13 Digital expression profiling of Purkinje neurons and dendrites in different subcellular compartments A. Kratz, P. Beguin, S. Poulain, M. Kaneko, C. Takahiko, A. Matsunaga, S. Kato, A. M. Suzuki, N. Bertin, T. Lassmann, R. Vigot, P. Carninci, C. Plessy, T. Launey P14 The evolution of imperfection and imperfection of evolution: the functional and functionless fractions of the human genome D. Graur P16 Species-independent identification of known and novel recurrent genomic entities in multiple cancer patients J. Friis-Nielsen, J. M. Izarzugaza, S. Brunak P18 Discovery of active gene modules which are densely conserved across multiple cancer types reveal their prognostic power and mutually exclusive mutation patterns B. S. Soibam P19 Whole exome sequencing of dysplastic leukoplakia tissue indicates sequential accumulation of somatic mutations from oral precancer to cancer D. Das, N. Biswas, S. Das, S. Sarkar, A. Maitra, C. Panda, P. Majumder P21 Epigenetic mechanisms of carcinogensis by hereditary breast cancer genes J. J. Gruber, N. Jaeger, M. Snyder P22 RNA direct: a novel RNA enrichment strategy applied to transcripts associated with solid tumors K. Patel, S. Bowman, T. Davis, D. Kraushaar, A. Emerman, S. Russello, N. Henig, C. Hendrickson P23 RNA sequencing identifies gene mutations for neuroblastoma K. Zhang P24 Participation of SFRP1 in the modulation of TMPRSS2-ERG fusion gene in prostate cancer cell lines M. Rodriguez-Dorantes, C. D. Cruz-Hernandez, C. D. P. Garcia-Tobilla, S. Solorzano-Rosales P25 Targeted Methylation Sequencing of Prostate Cancer N. Jäger, J. Chen, R. Haile, M. Hitchins, J. D. Brooks, M. Snyder P26 Mutant TPMT alleles in children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia from México City and Yucatán, Mexico S. Jiménez-Morales, M. Ramírez, J. Nuñez, V. Bekker, Y. Leal, E. Jiménez, A. Medina, A. Hidalgo, J. Mejía P28 Genetic modifiers of Alström syndrome J. Naggert, G. B. Collin, K. DeMauro, R. Hanusek, P. M. Nishina P31 Association of genomic variants with the occurrence of angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitor (ACEI)-induced coughing among Filipinos E. M. Cutiongco De La Paz, R. Sy, J. Nevado, P. Reganit, L. Santos, J. D. Magno, F. E. Punzalan , D. Ona , E. Llanes, R. L. Santos-Cortes , R. Tiongco, J. Aherrera, L. Abrahan, P. Pagauitan-Alan; Philippine Cardiogenomics Study Group P32 The use of “humanized” mouse models to validate disease association of a de novo GARS variant and to test a novel gene therapy strategy for Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease type 2D K. H. Morelli, J. S. Domire, N. Pyne, S. Harper, R. Burgess P34 Molecular regulation of chondrogenic human induced pluripotent stem cells M. A. Gari, A. Dallol, H. Alsehli, A. Gari, M. Gari, A. Abuzenadah P35 Molecular profiling of hematologic malignancies: implementation of a variant assessment algorithm for next generation sequencing data analysis and clinical reporting M. Thomas, M. Sukhai, S. Garg, M. Misyura, T. Zhang, A. Schuh, T. Stockley, S. Kamel-Reid P36 Accessing genomic evidence for clinical variants at NCBI S. Sherry, C. Xiao, D. Slotta, K. Rodarmer, M. Feolo, M. Kimelman, G. Godynskiy, C. O’Sullivan, E. Yaschenko P37 NGS-SWIFT: a cloud-based variant analysis framework using control-accessed sequencing data from DBGAP/SRA C. Xiao, E. Yaschenko, S. Sherry P38 Computational assessment of drug induced hepatotoxicity through gene expression profiling C. Rangel-Escareño, H. Rueda-Zarate P40 Flowr: robust and efficient pipelines using a simple language-agnostic approach;ultraseq; fast modular pipeline for somatic variation calling using flowr S. Seth, S. Amin, X. Song, X. Mao, H. Sun, R. G. Verhaak, A. Futreal, J. Zhang P41 Applying “Big data” technologies to the rapid analysis of heterogenous large cohort data S. J. Whiite, T. Chiang, A. English, J. Farek, Z. Kahn, W. Salerno, N. Veeraraghavan, E. Boerwinkle, R. 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Polfus, CHARGE and NHLBI Exome Sequence Project Working Groups P48 Association of adipoq gene with type 2 diabetes and related phenotypes in african american men and women: The jackson heart study S. Davis, R. Xu, S. Gebeab, P Riestra, A Gaye, R. Khan, J. Wilson, A. Bidulescu P49 Common variants in casr gene are associated with serum calcium levels in koreans S. H. Jung, N. Vinayagamoorthy, S. H. Yim, Y. J. Chung P50 Inference of multiple-wave population admixture by modeling decay of linkage disequilibrium with multiple exponential functions Y. Zhou, S. Xu P51 A Bayesian framework for generalized linear mixed models in genome-wide association studies X. Wang, V. Philip, G. Carter P52 Targeted sequencing approach for the identification of the genetic causes of hereditary hearing impairment A. A. Abuzenadah, M. Gari, R. Turki, A. Dallol P53 Identification of enhancer sequences by ATAC-seq open chromatin profiling A. Uyar, A. Kaygun, S. Zaman, E. Marquez, J. George, D. Ucar P54 Direct enrichment for the rapid preparation of targeted NGS libraries C. L. Hendrickson, A. Emerman, D. Kraushaar, S. Bowman, N. Henig, T. Davis, S. Russello, K. Patel P56 Performance of the Agilent D5000 and High Sensitivity D5000 ScreenTape assays for the Agilent 4200 Tapestation System R. Nitsche, L. Prieto-Lafuente P57 ClinVar: a multi-source archive for variant interpretation M. Landrum, J. Lee, W. Rubinstein, D. Maglott P59 Association of functional variants and protein physical interactions of human MUTY homolog linked with familial adenomatous polyposis and colorectal cancer syndrome Z. Abduljaleel, W. Khan, F. A. Al-Allaf, M. Athar , M. M. Taher, N. Shahzad P60 Modification of the microbiom constitution in the gut using chicken IgY antibodies resulted in a reduction of acute graft-versus-host disease after experimental bone marrow transplantation A. Bouazzaoui, E. Huber, A. Dan, F. A. Al-Allaf, W. Herr, G. Sprotte, J. Köstler, A. Hiergeist, A. Gessner, R. Andreesen, E. Holler P61 Compound heterozygous mutation in the LDLR gene in Saudi patients suffering severe hypercholesterolemia F. Al-Allaf, A. Alashwal, Z. Abduljaleel, M. Taher, A. Bouazzaoui, H. Abalkhail, A. Al-Allaf, R. Bamardadh, M. Atha

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Penilaian Kinerja Keuangan Koperasi di Kabupaten Pelalawan

This paper describe development and financial performance of cooperative in District Pelalawan among 2007 - 2008. Studies on primary and secondary cooperative in 12 sub-districts. Method in this stady use performance measuring of productivity, efficiency, growth, liquidity, and solvability of cooperative. Productivity of cooperative in Pelalawan was highly but efficiency still low. Profit and income were highly, even liquidity of cooperative very high, and solvability was good

Severe early onset preeclampsia: short and long term clinical, psychosocial and biochemical aspects

Preeclampsia is a pregnancy specific disorder commonly defined as de novo hypertension and proteinuria after 20 weeks gestational age. It occurs in approximately 3-5% of pregnancies and it is still a major cause of both foetal and maternal morbidity and mortality worldwide1. As extensive research has not yet elucidated the aetiology of preeclampsia, there are no rational preventive or therapeutic interventions available. The only rational treatment is delivery, which benefits the mother but is not in the interest of the foetus, if remote from term. Early onset preeclampsia (<32 weeks’ gestational age) occurs in less than 1% of pregnancies. It is, however often associated with maternal morbidity as the risk of progression to severe maternal disease is inversely related with gestational age at onset2. Resulting prematurity is therefore the main cause of neonatal mortality and morbidity in patients with severe preeclampsia3. Although the discussion is ongoing, perinatal survival is suggested to be increased in patients with preterm preeclampsia by expectant, non-interventional management. This temporising treatment option to lengthen pregnancy includes the use of antihypertensive medication to control hypertension, magnesium sulphate to prevent eclampsia and corticosteroids to enhance foetal lung maturity4. With optimal maternal haemodynamic status and reassuring foetal condition this results on average in an extension of 2 weeks. Prolongation of these pregnancies is a great challenge for clinicians to balance between potential maternal risks on one the eve hand and possible foetal benefits on the other. Clinical controversies regarding prolongation of preterm preeclamptic pregnancies still exist – also taking into account that preeclampsia is the leading cause of maternal mortality in the Netherlands5 - a debate which is even more pronounced in very preterm pregnancies with questionable foetal viability6-9. Do maternal risks of prolongation of these very early pregnancies outweigh the chances of neonatal survival? Counselling of women with very early onset preeclampsia not only comprises of knowledge of the outcome of those particular pregnancies, but also knowledge of outcomes of future pregnancies of these women is of major clinical importance. This thesis opens with a review of the literature on identifiable risk factors of preeclampsia

Measurement of associated W plus charm production in pp collisions at √s=7 TeV

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