CT-based radiomic signature predicts distant metastasis in lung adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Radiomics provides opportunities to quantify the tumor phenotype non-invasively by applying a large number of quantitative imaging features. This study evaluates computed-tomography (CT) radiomic features for their capability to predict distant metastasis (DM) for lung adenocarcinoma patients. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We included two datasets: 98 patients for discovery and 84 for validation. The phenotype of the primary tumor was quantified on pre-treatment CT-scans using 635 radiomic features. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed to evaluate radiomics performance using the concordance index (CI). RESULTS: Thirty-five radiomic features were found to be prognostic (CI > 0.60, FDR < 5%) for DM and twelve for survival. It is noteworthy that tumor volume was only moderately prognostic for DM (CI=0.55, p-value=2.77 × 10(−5)) in the discovery cohort. A radiomic-signature had strong power for predicting DM in the independent validation dataset (CI=0.61, p-value=1.79 ×10(−17)). Adding this radiomic-signature to a clinical model resulted in a significant improvement of predicting DM in the validation dataset (p-value=1.56 × 10(−11)). CONCLUSIONS: Although only basic metrics are routinely quantified, this study shows that radiomic features capturing detailed information of the tumor phenotype can be used as a prognostic biomarker for clinically-relevant factors such as DM. Moreover, the radiomic-signature provided additional information to clinical data

Low Incidence of Chest Wall Pain with a Risk-Adapted Lung Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy Approach Using Three or Five Fractions Based on Chest Wall Dosimetry

Purpose To examine the frequency and potential of dose-volume predictors for chest wall (CW) toxicity (pain and/or rib fracture) for patients receiving lung stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) using treatment planning methods to minimize CW dose and a risk-adapted fractionation scheme. Methods: We reviewed data from 72 treatment plans, from 69 lung SBRT patients with at least one year of follow-up or CW toxicity, who were treated at our center between 2010 and 2013. Treatment plans were optimized to reduce CW dose and patients received a risk-adapted fractionation of 18 Gy×3 fractions (54 Gy total) if the CW V30 was less than 30 mL or 10–12 Gy×5 fractions (50–60 Gy total) otherwise. The association between CW toxicity and patient characteristics, treatment parameters and dose metrics, including biologically equivalent dose, were analyzed using logistic regression. Results: With a median follow-up of 20 months, 6 (8.3%) patients developed CW pain including three (4.2%) grade 1, two (2.8%) grade 2 and one (1.4%) grade 3. Five (6.9%) patients developed rib fractures, one of which was symptomatic. No significant associations between CW toxicity and patient and dosimetric variables were identified on univariate nor multivariate analysis. Conclusions: Optimization of treatment plans to reduce CW dose and a risk-adapted fractionation strategy of three or five fractions based on the CW V30 resulted in a low incidence of CW toxicity. Under these conditions, none of the patient characteristics or dose metrics we examined appeared to be predictive of CW pain

CT-based radiomic signature predicts distant metastasis in lung adenocarcinoma

Background and Purpose: Radiomics provides opportunities to quantify the tumor phenotype non-invasively by applying a large number of quantitative imaging features. This study evaluates computed-tomography (CT) radiomic features for their capability to predict distant metastasis (DM) for lung adenocarcinoma patients. Material and Methods: We included two datasets: 98 patients for discovery and 84 for validation. The phenotype of the primary tumor was quantified on pre-treatment CT-scans using 635 radiomic features. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed to evaluate radiomics performance using the concordance index (CI). Results: Thirty-five radiomic features were found to be prognostic (CI > 0.60, FDR < 5%) for DM and twelve for survival. It is noteworthy that tumor volume was only moderately prognostic for DM (CI=0.55, p-value=2.77 × 10−5) in the discovery cohort. A radiomic-signature had strong power for predicting DM in the independent validation dataset (CI=0.61, p-value=1.79 ×10−17). Adding this radiomic-signature to a clinical model resulted in a significant improvement of predicting DM in the validation dataset (p-value=1.56 × 10−11). Conclusions: Although only basic metrics are routinely quantified, this study shows that radiomic features capturing detailed information of the tumor phenotype can be used as a prognostic biomarker for clinically-relevant factors such as DM. Moreover, the radiomic-signature provided additional information to clinical data

Severe neurocognitive and growth disorders due to variation in THOC2, an essential component of nuclear mRNA export machinery

Highly conserved TREX-mediated mRNA export is emerging as a key pathway in neuronal development and differentiation. TREX subunit variants cause neurodevelopmental disorders (NDDs) by interfering with mRNA export from the cell nucleus to the cytoplasm. Previously we implicated four missense variants in the X-linked THOC2 gene in intellectual disability (ID). We now report an additional six affected individuals from five unrelated families with two de novo and threematernally inherited pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants in THOC2 extending the genotypic and phenotypic spectrum. These comprise three rare missense THOC2 variants that affect evolutionarily conserved amino acid residues and reduce protein stability and two with canonical splice-site THOC2 variants that result in C-terminally truncated THOC2 proteins.We present detailed clinical assessment and functional studies on a de novo variant in a female with an epileptic encephalopathy and discuss an additional four families with rare variants in THOC2 with supportive evidence for pathogenicity. Severe neurocognitive features, including movement and seizure disorders, were observed in this cohort. Taken together our data show that even subtle alterations to the canonical molecular pathways such asmRNAexport, otherwise essential for cellular life, can be compatible with life, but lead to NDDs in human

World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions

BACKGROUND: To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. METHODS: In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. FINDINGS: Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0·685 (95% CI 0·629-0·741) to 0·833 (0·783-0·882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. INTERPRETATION: We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. FUNDING: World Health Organization, British Heart Foundation (BHF), BHF Cambridge Centre for Research Excellence, UK Medical Research Council, and National Institute for Health Research

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: A comparative risk assessment

Background: High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. Methods: We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. Findings: In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. Interpretation: The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd

National trends in total cholesterol obscure heterogeneous changes in HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio : a pooled analysis of 458 population-based studies in Asian and Western countries

Background: Although high-density lipoprotein (HDL) and non-HDL cholesterol have opposite associations with coronary heart disease, multi-country reports of lipid trends only use total cholesterol (TC). Our aim was to compare trends in total, HDL and nonHDL cholesterol and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio in Asian and Western countries. Methods: We pooled 458 population-based studies with 82.1 million participants in 23 Asian and Western countries. We estimated changes in mean total, HDL and non-HDL cholesterol and mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio by country, sex and age group. Results: Since similar to 1980, mean TC increased in Asian countries. In Japan and South Korea, the TC rise was due to rising HDL cholesterol, which increased by up to 0.17 mmol/L per decade in Japanese women; in China, it was due to rising non-HDL cholesterol. TC declined in Western countries, except in Polish men. The decline was largest in Finland and Norway, at similar to 0.4 mmol/L per decade. The decline in TC in most Western countries was the net effect of an increase in HDL cholesterol and a decline in non-HDL cholesterol, with the HDL cholesterol increase largest in New Zealand and Switzerland. Mean total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio declined in Japan, South Korea and most Western countries, by as much as similar to 0.7 per decade in Swiss men (equivalent to similar to 26% decline in coronary heart disease risk per decade). The ratio increased in China. Conclusions: HDL cholesterol has risen and the total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio has declined in many Western countries, Japan and South Korea, with only a weak correlation with changes in TC or non-HDL cholesterol.Peer reviewe

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries(1,2). However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world(3) and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health(4,5). However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular riskchanged from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.Peer reviewe