Allowing a wildfire to burn: estimating the effect on future fire suppression costs

Where a legacy of aggressive wildland fire suppression has left forests in need of fuel reduction, allowing wildland fire to burn may provide fuel treatment benefits, thereby reducing suppression costs from subsequent fires. The least-cost-plus-net-value-change model of wildland fire economics includes benefits of wildfire in a framework for evaluating suppression options. In this study, we estimated one component of that benefit – the expected present value of the reduction in suppression costs for subsequent fires arising from the fuel treatment effect of a current fire. To that end, we employed Monte Carlo methods to generate a set of scenarios for subsequent fire ignition and weather events, which are referred to as sample paths, for a study area in central Oregon. We simulated fire on the landscape over a 100-year time horizon using existing models of fire behaviour, vegetation and fuels development, and suppression effectiveness, and we estimated suppression costs using an existing suppression cost model. Our estimates suggest that the potential cost savings may be substantial. Further research is needed to estimate the full least-cost-plus-net-value-change model. This line of research will extend the set of tools available for developing wildfire management plans for forested landscapes.Keywords: bio-economic modelling, wildland fire management, forest economics, forest fire polic

Diagnosing Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Using Saliva RNA Compared to Cognitive and Balance Testing

BACKGROUND: Early, accurate diagnosis of mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) can improve clinical outcomes for patients, but mTBI remains difficult to diagnose because of reliance on subjective symptom reports. An objective biomarker could increase diagnostic accuracy and improve clinical outcomes. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of salivary noncoding RNA (ncRNA) to serve as a diagnostic adjunct to current clinical tools. We hypothesized that saliva ncRNA levels would demonstrate comparable accuracy for identifying mTBI as measures of symptom burden, neurocognition, and balance. METHODS: This case‐control study involved 538 individuals. Participants included 251 individuals with mTBI, enrolled ≤14 days postinjury, from 11 clinical sites. Saliva samples (n = 679) were collected at five time points (≤3, 4‐7, 8‐14, 15‐30, and 31‐60 days post‐mTBI). Levels of ncRNAs (microRNAs, small nucleolar RNAs, and piwi‐interacting RNAs) were quantified within each sample using RNA sequencing. The first sample from each mTBI participant was compared to saliva samples from 287 controls. Samples were divided into testing (n = 430; mTBI = 201 and control = 239) and training sets (n = 108; mTBI = 50 and control = 58). The test set was used to identify ncRNA diagnostic candidates and create a diagnostic model. Model accuracy was assessed in the naïve test set. RESULTS: A model utilizing seven ncRNA ratios, along with participant age and chronic headache status, differentiated mTBI and control participants with a cross‐validated area under the curve (AUC) of .857 in the training set (95% CI, .816‐.903) and .823 in the naïve test set. In a subset of participants (n = 321; mTBI = 176 and control = 145) assessed for symptom burden (Post‐Concussion Symptom Scale), as well as neurocognition and balance (ClearEdge System), these clinical measures yielded cross‐validated AUC of .835 (95% CI, .782‐.880) and .853 (95% CI, .803‐.899), respectively. A model employing symptom burden and four neurocognitive measures identified mTBI participants with similar AUC (.888; CI, .845‐.925) as symptom burden and four ncRNAs (.932; 95% CI, .890‐.965). CONCLUSION: Salivary ncRNA levels represent a noninvasive, biologic measure that can aid objective, accurate diagnosis of mTBI

Measurement of the production of a W boson in association with a charm quark in pp collisions at √s = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The production of a W boson in association with a single charm quark is studied using 4.6 fb−1 of pp collision data at s√ = 7 TeV collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. In events in which a W boson decays to an electron or muon, the charm quark is tagged either by its semileptonic decay to a muon or by the presence of a charmed meson. The integrated and differential cross sections as a function of the pseudorapidity of the lepton from the W-boson decay are measured. Results are compared to the predictions of next-to-leading-order QCD calculations obtained from various parton distribution function parameterisations. The ratio of the strange-to-down sea-quark distributions is determined to be 0.96+0.26−0.30 at Q 2 = 1.9 GeV2, which supports the hypothesis of an SU(3)-symmetric composition of the light-quark sea. Additionally, the cross-section ratio σ(W + +c¯¯)/σ(W − + c) is compared to the predictions obtained using parton distribution function parameterisations with different assumptions about the s−s¯¯¯ quark asymmetry

Exploring the Fundamental Dynamics of Error-Based Motor Learning Using a Stationary Predictive-Saccade Task

The maintenance of movement accuracy uses prior performance errors to correct future motor plans; this motor-learning process ensures that movements remain quick and accurate. The control of predictive saccades, in which anticipatory movements are made to future targets before visual stimulus information becomes available, serves as an ideal paradigm to analyze how the motor system utilizes prior errors to drive movements to a desired goal. Predictive saccades constitute a stationary process (the mean and to a rough approximation the variability of the data do not vary over time, unlike a typical motor adaptation paradigm). This enables us to study inter-trial correlations, both on a trial-by-trial basis and across long blocks of trials. Saccade errors are found to be corrected on a trial-by-trial basis in a direction-specific manner (the next saccade made in the same direction will reflect a correction for errors made on the current saccade). Additionally, there is evidence for a second, modulating process that exhibits long memory. That is, performance information, as measured via inter-trial correlations, is strongly retained across a large number of saccades (about 100 trials). Together, this evidence indicates that the dynamics of motor learning exhibit complexities that must be carefully considered, as they cannot be fully described with current state-space (ARMA) modeling efforts

Genome-wide association study of {REM} sleep behavior disorder identifies polygenic risk and brain expression effects

AbstractRapid-eye movement (REM) sleep behavior disorder (RBD), enactment of dreams during REM sleep, is an early clinical symptom of alpha-synucleinopathies and defines a more severe subtype. The genetic background of RBD and its underlying mechanisms are not well understood. Here, we perform a genome-wide association study of RBD, identifying five RBD risk loci near SNCA, GBA, TMEM175, INPP5F, and SCARB2. Expression analyses highlight SNCA-AS1 and potentially SCARB2 differential expression in different brain regions in RBD, with SNCA-AS1 further supported by colocalization analyses. Polygenic risk score, pathway analysis, and genetic correlations provide further insights into RBD genetics, highlighting RBD as a unique alpha-synucleinopathy subpopulation that will allow future early intervention

Measurement of the tt¯ production cross-section as a function of jet multiplicity and jet transverse momentum in 7 TeV proton-proton collisions with the ATLAS detector

The tt¯ production cross-section dependence on jet multiplicity and jet transverse momentum is reported for proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV in the single-lepton channel. The data were collected with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider and comprise the full 2011 data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.6 fb−1. Differential cross-sections are presented as a function of the jet multiplicity for up to eight jets using jet transverse momentum thresholds of 25, 40, 60, and 80 GeV, and as a function of jet transverse momentum up to the fifth jet. The results are shown after background subtraction and corrections for all known detector effects, within a kinematic range closely matched to the experimental acceptance. Several QCD-based Monte Carlo models are compared with the results. Sensitivity to the parton shower modelling is found at the higher jet multiplicities, at high transverse momentum of the leading jet and in the transverse momentum spectrum of the fifth leading jet. The MC@NLO+HERWIG MC is found to predict too few events at higher jet multiplicities

Anti-bacterial activity of inorganic nanomaterials and their antimicrobial peptide conjugates against resistant and non-resistant pathogens

This review details the antimicrobial applications of inorganic nanomaterials of mostly metallic form, and the augmentation of activity by surface conjugation of peptide ligands. The review is subdivided into three main sections, of which the first describes the antimicrobial activity of inorganic nanomaterials against gram-positive, gram-negative and multidrug-resistant bacterial strains. The second section highlights the range of antimicrobial peptides and the drug resistance strategies employed by bacterial species to counter lethality. The final part discusses the role of antimicrobial peptide-decorated inorganic nanomaterials in the fight against bacterial strains that show resistance. General strategies for the preparation of antimicrobial peptides and their conjugation to nanomaterials are discussed, emphasizing the use of elemental and metallic oxide nanomaterials. Importantly, the permeation of antimicrobial peptides through the bacterial membrane is shown to aid the delivery of nanomaterials into bacterial cells. By judicious use of targeting ligands, the nanomaterial becomes able to differentiate between bacterial and mammalian cells and, thus, reduce side effects. Moreover, peptide conjugation to the surface of a nanomaterial will alter surface chemistry in ways that lead to reduction in toxicity and improvements in biocompatibility

Measurement of the low-mass Drell-Yan differential cross section at √s = 7 TeV using the ATLAS detector

The differential cross section for the process Z/γ ∗ → ℓℓ (ℓ = e, μ) as a function of dilepton invariant mass is measured in pp collisions at s√ = 7 TeV at the LHC using the ATLAS detector. The measurement is performed in the e and μ channels for invariant masses between 26 GeV and 66 GeV using an integrated luminosity of 1.6 fb−1 collected in 2011 and these measurements are combined. The analysis is extended to invariant masses as low as 12 GeV in the muon channel using 35 pb−1 of data collected in 2010. The cross sections are determined within fiducial acceptance regions and corrections to extrapolate the measurements to the full kinematic range are provided. Next-to-next-to-leading-order QCD predictions provide a significantly better description of the results than next-to-leading-order QCD calculations, unless the latter are matched to a parton shower calculation

Measurement of W± and Z-boson production cross sections in pp collisions at √s=13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

See paper for full list of authors - 17 pages plus author list + cover pages (34 pages total), 5 figures, 3 tables, submitted to Phys. Lett. B, All figures including auxiliary figures are available at https://atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/PAPERS/STDM-2015-03/International audienceMeasurements of the $W^{\pm} \rightarrow \ell^{\pm} \nu$ and $Z \rightarrow \ell^+ \ell^-$ production cross sections (where $\ell^{\pm}=e^{\pm},\mu^{\pm}$) in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV are presented using data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider, corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 81 pb$^{-1}$. The total inclusive $W^{\pm}$-boson production cross sections times the single-lepton-flavour branching ratios are $\sigma_{W^+}^{tot}= 11.78 \pm 0.02 (stat) \pm 0.32 (sys) \pm 0.59 (lumi)$ nb and $\sigma_{W^-}^{tot} = 8.75 \pm 0.02 (stat) \pm 0.24 (sys) \pm 0.44 (lumi)$ nb for $W^+$ and $W^-$, respectively. The total inclusive $Z$-boson production cross section times leptonic branching ratio, within the invariant mass window $66 < m_{\ell\ell} < 116$ GeV, is $\sigma_{Z}^{tot} = 1.97 \pm 0.01 (stat) \pm 0.04 (sys) \pm 0.10 (lumi)$ nb. The $W^+$, $W^-$, and $Z$-boson production cross sections and cross-section ratios within a fiducial region defined by the detector acceptance are also measured. The cross-section ratios benefit from significant cancellation of experimental uncertainties, resulting in $\sigma_{W^+}^{fid}/\sigma_{W^-}^{fid} = 1.295 \pm 0.003 (stat) \pm 0.010 (sys)$ and $\sigma_{W^{\pm}}^{fid}/\sigma_{Z}^{fid} = 10.31 \pm 0.04 (stat) \pm 0.20 (sys)$. Theoretical predictions, based on calculations accurate to next-to-next-to-leading order for quantum chromodynamics and next-to-leading order for electroweak processes and which employ different parton distribution function sets, are compared to these measurements

Dijet production in √s = 7 TeV pp collisions with large rapidity gaps at the ATLAS experiment

A 6.8 nb−¹ sample of pp collision data collected under low-luminosity conditions at √s = 7 TeV by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider is used to study diffractive dijet production. Events containing at least two jets with pT > 20 GeV are selected and analysed in terms of variables which discriminate between diffractive and non-diffractive processes. Cross sections are measured differentially in ΔηF, the size of the observable forward region of pseudorapidity which is devoid of hadronic activity, and in an estimator, ξ˜, of the fractional momentum loss of the proton assuming single diffractive dissociation (pp → p X). Model comparisons indicate a dominant non-diffractive contribution up to moderately large ηF and small ξ˜, with a diffractive contribution which is significant at the highest ΔηF and the lowest ξ˜. The rapidity-gap survival probability is estimated from comparisons of the data in this latter region with predictions based on diffractive parton distribution functions