The Meteosat Third Generation satellite mission and its future contribution to nowcasting

Presentación realizada en la 3rd European Nowcasting Conference, celebrada en la sede central de AEMET en Madrid del 24 al 26 de abril de 2019

Towards nowcasting in Europe in 2030

The increasing impact of severe weather over Europe on lives and weathersensitive economies can be mitigated by accurate 0–6 h forecasts (nowcasts), supporting a vital ‘last line of defence’ for civil protection and many other applications. Recognizing lack of skill in some complex situations, often at convective and local sub-kilometre scales and associated with rare events, we identify seven recommendations with the aim to improve nowcasting in Europe by the national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHSs) by 2030. These recommendations are based on a review of user needs, the state of the observing system, techniques based on observations and high-resolution numerical weather models, as well as tools, data and infrastructure supporting the nowcasting community in Europe. Denser and more accurate observations are necessary particularly in the boundary layer to better characterize the ingredients of severe storms. A key driver for improvement is next-generation European satellite data becoming available as of 2023. Seamless ensemble prediction methods to produce enhanced weather forecasts with 0–24 h lead times and probabilistic products require further development. Such products need to be understood and interpreted by skilled forecasters operating in an evolving forecasting context

Sectoral use of climate information in Europe: A synoptic overview

Society can benefit from usable climate information to better prepare and adapt to the risks and opportunities posed by climate variability and change. An adequate and effective provision of climate information – from historical observations through to seasonal forecasts, and multi-decadal climate change projections – is critical to inform planning and decision-making in climate-sensitive sectors. Central to this are the end-users of climate information and a growing emphasis on tailored climate information and services shaped by user needs. However, knowledge about the use of climate information across European economic sectors is limited. This paper identifies the spectrum of sectoral information requirements across a number of sectors including agriculture, forestry, energy, water, tourism, insurance, health, emergency services and transport sectors, drawing from an online survey (n = 462) and interviews with (potential) users of climate information (n = 80). This analysis reveals shared opportunities across sectors including the potential application of decadal climate predictions. In addition, common barriers and enablers to the uptake of climate information were also noted including the format of the information provided, the need for compatibility with existing in-house systems, and the perceived credibility and trust of information providers. This analysis also points towards a perceived increasing fragmentation of available information and the desire amongst end-users for a European body able to centralise and coordinate climate data. We highlight some of the current factors that still need to be adequately addressed in order to enhance the uptake and application of climate information in decision-making across European economic sectors

The Reliability of Global and Hemispheric Surface Temperature Records

The purpose of this review article is to discuss the development and associated estimation of uncertainties in the global and hemispheric surface temperature records. The review begins by detailing the groups that produce surface temperature datasets. After discussing the reasons for similarities and differences between the various products, the main issues that must be addressed when deriving accurate estimates, particularly for hemispheric and global averages, are then considered. These issues are discussed in the order of their importance for temperature records at these spatial scales: biases in SST data, particularly before the 1940s; the exposure of land-based thermometers before the development of louvred screens in the late 19th century; and urbanization effects in some regions in recent decades. The homogeneity of land-based records is also discussed; however, at these large scales it is relatively unimportant. The article concludes by illustrating hemispheric and global temperature records from the four groups that produce series in near-real time

ICOADS Release 3.0: a major update to the historical marine climate record

We highlight improvements to the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) in the latest Release 3.0 (R3.0; covering 1662–2014). ICOADS is the most widely used freely available collection of surface marine observations, providing data for the construction of gridded analyses of sea surface temperature, estimates of air–sea interaction and other meteorological variables. ICOADS observations are assimilated into all major atmospheric, oceanic and coupled reanalyses, further widening its impact. R3.0 therefore includes changes designed to enable effective exchange of information describing data quality between ICOADS, reanalysis centres, data set developers, scientists and the public. These user-driven innovations include the assignment of a unique identifier (UID) to each marine report – to enable tracing of observations, linking with reports and improved data sharing. Other revisions and extensions of the ICOADS' International Maritime Meteorological Archive common data format incorporate new near-surface oceanographic data elements and cloud parameters. Many new input data sources have been assembled, and updates and improvements to existing data sources, or removal of erroneous data, made. Coupled with enhanced ‘preliminary’ monthly data and product extensions past 2014, R3.0 provides improved support of climate assessment and monitoring, reanalyses and near-real-time applications

Evaluating operational AVHRR sea surface temperature data at the coastline using surfers

Sea surface temperature (SST) is an essential climate variable that can be measured routinely from Earth Observation (EO) with high temporal and spatial coverage. To evaluate its suitability for an application, it is critical to know the accuracy and precision (performance) of the EO SST data. This requires comparisons with co-located and concomitant in situ data. Owing to a relatively large network of in situ platforms there is a good understanding of the performance of EO SST data in the open ocean. However, at the coastline this performance is not well known, impeded by a lack of in situ data. Here, we used in situ SST measurements collected by a group of surfers over a three year period in the coastal waters of the UK and Ireland, to improve our understanding of the performance of EO SST data at the coastline. At two beaches near the city of Plymouth, UK, the in situ SST measurements collected by the surfers were compared with in situ SST collected from two autonomous buoys located ∼7 km and ∼33 km from the coastline, and showed good agreement, with discrepancies consistent with the spatial separation of the sites. The in situ SST measurements collected by the surfers around the coastline, and those collected offshore by the two autonomous buoys, were used to evaluate the performance of operational Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) EO SST data. Results indicate: (i) a significant reduction in the performance of AVHRR at retrieving SST at the coastline, with root mean square errors in the range of 1.0 to 2.0 °C depending on the temporal difference between match-ups, significantly higher than those at the two offshore stations (0.4 to 0.6 °C); (ii) a systematic negative bias in the AVHRR retrievals of approximately 1 °C at the coastline, not observed at the two offshore stations; and (iii) an increase in the root mean square error at the coastline when the temporal difference between match-ups exceeded three hours. Harnessing new solutions to improve in situ sampling coverage at the coastline, such as tagging surfers with sensors, can improve our understanding of the performance of EO SST data in coastal regions, helping inform users interested in EO SST products for coastal applications. Yet, validating EO SST products using in situ SST data at the coastline is challenged by difficulties reconciling the two measurements, which are provided at different spatial scales in a dynamic and complex environment

Validation practices for satellite based earth observation data across communities

Assessing the inherent uncertainties in satellite data products is a challenging task. Different technical approaches have been developed in the Earth Observation (EO) communities to address the validation problem which results in a large variety of methods as well as terminology. This paper reviews state-of-the-art methods of satellite validation and documents their similarities and differences. First the overall validation objectives and terminologies are specified, followed by a generic mathematical formulation of the validation problem. Metrics currently used as well as more advanced EO validation approaches are introduced thereafter. An outlook on the applicability and requirements of current EO validation approaches and targets is given

Observational needs of sea surface temperature

Sea surface temperature (SST) is a fundamental physical variable for understanding, quantifying and predicting complex interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere. Such processes determine how heat from the sun is redistributed across the global oceans, directly impacting large- and small-scale weather and climate patterns. The provision of daily maps of global SST for operational systems, climate modeling and the broader scientific community is now a mature and sustained service coordinated by the Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) and the CEOS SST Virtual Constellation (CEOS SST-VC). Data streams are shared, indexed, processed, quality controlled, analyzed, and documented within a Regional/Global Task Sharing (R/GTS) framework, which is implemented internationally in a distributed manner. Products rely on a combination of low-Earth orbit infrared and microwave satellite imagery, geostationary orbit infrared satellite imagery, and in situ data from moored and drifting buoys, Argo floats, and a suite of independent, fully characterized and traceable in situ measurements for product validation (Fiducial Reference Measurements, FRM). Research and development continues to tackle problems such as instrument calibration, algorithm development, diurnal variability, derivation of high-quality skin and depth temperatures, and areas of specific interest such as the high latitudes and coastal areas. In this white paper, we review progress versus the challenges we set out 10 years ago in a previous paper, highlight remaining and new research and development challenges for the next 10 years (such as the need for sustained continuity of passive microwave SST using a 6.9 GHz channel), and conclude with needs to achieve an integrated global high-resolution SST observing system, with focus on satellite observations exploited in conjunction with in situ SSTs. The paper directly relates to the theme of Data Information Systems and also contributes to Ocean Observing Governance and Ocean Technology and Networks within the OceanObs2019 objectives. Applications of SST contribute to all the seven societal benefits, covering Discovery; Ecosystem Health & Biodiversity; Climate Variability & Change; Water, Food, & Energy Security; Pollution & Human Health; Hazards and Maritime Safety; and the Blue Economy

Assessing the health of the in situ global surface marine climate observing system

The in situ surface marine climate observing system includes contributions from several different types of observing platforms. Most observations come from mobile platforms, e.g. ships or surface drifting buoys. Climate applications using marine observations often require fields of environmental parameters to be constructed on regular spatiotemporal grids. User requirements are therefore typically presented in terms of parameter uncertainty at particular space and timescales. It is therefore important to relate the characteristics of marine observations, in terms of their expected quality and sampling distribution, to these requirements. A simple method to estimate the instrumental uncertainty in fields derived from a mixture of observation types is presented. This method enables preliminary assessment of the extent to which the available observations meet the stated user requirements. Example observing system adequacy assessments are presented for two climate variables, sea surface temperature (SST) and marine air temperature (MAT) using in situ data. The method is also applicable to gridded data sets constructed from combined in situ and satellite data. While the global metrics for SST show an improvement in observing system adequacy over time, the adequacy for MAT is declining. The assessments can determine the most efficient approach to improving observing system adequacy. For in situ SST the best approach would be to increase the number of different platforms making observations. For MAT, increasing the number of observations overall, regardless of platform and increasing the geographical coverage is required to reduce the uncertainty. The assessments would be improved by more extensive evaluation of uncertainties associated with each different variable for each platform type. It would also be beneficial to review the completeness of the user requirements: e.g. to include user requirements relating to the stability of averages on large space and timescales required for climate monitoring, or for constructing estimates of air–sea exchange