Modelling project feasibility robustness by use of scenarios

Key words: Evaluation, Scenario, Uncertainty, Multi-Modal Abstract: This paper presents the application of a new scenario based analysis technique which has been developed for transport infrastructure planning. The approach aims at dealing with uncertainty in the planning environment in a more systematic way than is usually the case when applying scenario analysis. Specifically, the developed scenario approach secures a consistent inclusion of actual scenario elements in the quantitative impact modelling and facilitates a transparent project feasibility robustness analysis. The approach has been implemented in a SCENARIO MANAGER as part of an infrastructure planning decision support system which comprises GIS-related impact models embedded in a tool-box applicable to multi-modal transport investment analysis. Following a brief introduction, the next section of the paper outlines a conceptual scenario model which categorises project uncertainties into three main groups: Objective, adaptive and subjective uncertainty. This model illustrates the correlation between the scenario definition and the uncertainty in the planning environment. This scenario approach distinguishes itself from usual single dominant issue scenarios or prognoses as it is based on thematic scenario writing. In the case presented, four scenarios are introduced which have been developed in a recent Danish scenario study: (I) the market-oriented society, (II) the locally-oriented society, (III) the supra-national society and (IV) the technological society. Each scenario is then analysed as concerns its impact on a set of relevant project evaluation criteria. The criteria used stem from the on-going EUNET project funded by the European Commission DGVII, within the Strategic Transport part of the Fourth Framework Programme. Section three of the paper demonstrates the application of the systematic scenario analysis technique by means of a case study. The case concerns multi-modal evaluation of the Harbour Tunnel under the Copenhagen harbour. One-third of central Copenhagen is divided from the rest by the harbour. Presently, the harbour has four road bridge crossings and one rail bridge crossing. The investment in question concerns a fifth road tunnel at the entrance of the harbour, which aims at forming a complete high standard road systems around Copenhagen while at the same time reducing the environmental impacts to the medieval town centre. Four different solutions to the inclusion of the new Harbour Tunnel in the road network are examined. The concept of scenario profiling is introduced, which in an operational manner examines the project robustness related to each of the four project alternatives. The scenario profile gives a comprehensive description of the scenario implications for the socio-economic feasibility of each project alternative. Through a systematic, scenario based set of weights, the overall project robustness is determined. The final section five presents conclusions and recommendations. It is stated that the scenario approach presented is a valuable aid in assisting decision making on transport investment planning. The area for future research into the further integration of model uncertainty with scenario based robustness evaluations, is outlined.

Provisions for old age. Income provisions and retirement

Research on the income situation of today’s and future retirees requires often record based data. Because of their accuracy in the life-course infomation they can also, if they are linked to survey data, make interviews shorter and less demanding for the interviewed persons. Process produced data from the pension fund are already available for these research topics. The data include details about the employment career and other life-course events as far as they are considered in the pensions’ calculation. Nevertheless, additional sources are needed if research projects address the income situation more in detail, in particular the question of poverty or high income in old age. The pension reforms of the past decade have strengthened the second and third pillar in the importance, thereby increasing their importance of occupational pensions and private savings for future old age income. There exist already some detailed and inclusive data for research on old age income and retirement collected for government reports, but not all this data is yet available for scientific research. Furthermore should the exchange of data between social securitiy and/or tax institutions more often be combined with the collection of statistical data in order to improve the possibility of record-to-record linkage.Retirement, old age provisions, public pension fund, process produced data, data linkage

Fully Convolutional Neural Networks for Dynamic Object Detection in Grid Maps

Grid maps are widely used in robotics to represent obstacles in the environment and differentiating dynamic objects from static infrastructure is essential for many practical applications. In this work, we present a methods that uses a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) to infer whether grid cells are covering a moving object or not. Compared to tracking approaches, that use e.g. a particle filter to estimate grid cell velocities and then make a decision for individual grid cells based on this estimate, our approach uses the entire grid map as input image for a CNN that inspects a larger area around each cell and thus takes the structural appearance in the grid map into account to make a decision. Compared to our reference method, our concept yields a performance increase from 83.9% to 97.2%. A runtime optimized version of our approach yields similar improvements with an execution time of just 10 milliseconds.Comment: This is a shorter version of the masters thesis of Florian Piewak and it was accapted at IV 201

Integrated Product Policy and Environmental Product Innovations: An Empirical Analysis

The European Commission has recently stepped up its promotion of the ?Integrated Product Policy?. The objective of the IPP is to support the realisation of environmental product innovations and thus to achieve a broad reduction of all environmental impacts throughout a product?s life cycle. Based on a unique company level data set for the German manufacturing sector, this paper empirically examines the relationship between environmental organisational measures regarded as IPP measures by the European Commission and environmental product innovations. According to the econometric analysis, the certification of environmental management systems has a significantly positive effect on environmental product innovations. Waste disposal measures or product take-back systems appear to be an even more important driver of environmental product innovations. The econometric analysis also shows that other factors that have been suggested in the literature, such as environmental policy, technology push and market pull, as well as other specific company characteristics have a significantly positive influence on environmental product innovations. According to the descriptive analysis of environmental product innovators, economic aspects (i.e. higher prices) rather than soft factors appear to be the major obstacles to the commercial exploitation of environmental products and thus also to environmental product innovations. --Integrated Product Policy,Product Innovation,Environmental Innovation,Innovation Management,Technological Innovation,Discrete Choice Models

Ban The Carriage Industry? Yea or Neigh: An Examination of the Arguments Around the Carriage Industry by a Certified Carriage Driver In-Training

Senior Project submitted to The Division of Social Studies of Bard College

Cholecystokinin-From Local Gut Hormone to Ubiquitous Messenger

Cholecystokinin (CCK) was discovered in 1928 in jejunal extracts as a gallbladder contraction factor. It was later shown to be member of a peptide family, which are all ligands for the CCK(1) and CCK(2) receptors. CCK peptides are known to be synthetized in small intestinal endocrine I-cells and cerebral neurons. But in addition, CCK is expressed in several endocrine glands (pituitary cells, thyroid C-cells, pancreatic islets, the adrenals, and the testes); in peripheral nerves; in cortical and medullary kidney cells; in cardial myocytes; and in cells of the immune system. CCK peptides stimulate pancreatic enzyme secretion and growth, gallbladder contraction, and gut motility, satiety and inhibit acid secretion from the stomach. Moreover, they are major neurotransmitters in the brain and the periphery. CCK peptides also stimulate calcitonin, insulin, and glucagon secretion, and they may act as natriuretic peptides in the kidneys. CCK peptides are derived from proCCK with a C-terminal bioactive YMGWMDFamide sequence, in which the Y-residue is partly O-sulfated. The plasma forms are CCK-58, -33, -22, and -8, whereas the small CCK-8 and -5 are potent neurotransmitters. Over the last decades, CCK expression has also been encountered in tumors (neuroendocrine tumors, cerebral astrocytomas, gliomas, acoustic neuromas, and specific pediatric tumors). Recently, a metastastic islet cell tumor was found to cause a specific CCKoma syndrome, suggesting that circulating CCK may be a useful tumor marker

Lipid Analysis of Maturing Crambe Seed

For several years, plants have been screened in the search for compounds that might have a potential use in industry and which presently have no other suitable source (1). During a screening study, Mikolajczak et al. (2) found that crambe (common name for Crambe abyssinica) contained a high percentage of erucic acid. Erucic acid has many potential industrial uses and is currently being obtained from imported rapeseed (J). Because there is presently no suitable domestic source of erucic acid, crambe is a potential new crop for the United States. Field studies of crambe have shown that the seeds tend to shatter when mature and thus seed losses occur while the crop is being harvested. (4). If the crambe seed could be harvested while immature, the shattering problem would be reduced. Early harvesting would not necessarily decrease the value of the crop if the erucic acid content of the seed reached its maximum before the seed matured. Sims (5) and McKillican (6) have studied the lipid changes in maturing crambe seeds, but their experiments were not conducted in controlled environments. Sims\u27 results show that erucic acid continually increases to maturity. Similarly McKillican states that on a weight per seed basis, erucic acid increases steadily to maturity in crambe. However, the data she presents appear to indicate that there is a relatively constant erucic acid content from 20 DAF (days after fertilization) to maturity. Since there appears to be some variation in the above authors\u27 results and because environmental conditions affect seed oil composition, the lipid changes in maturing crambe seed will be examined under greenhouse conditions. In the original plans of this study, all lipid classes were to be analyzed and thus a general method_ of analysis was desired. Such a method has been described by Privett et al. (7). The method involves the use of thin-layer chromatography (TLC) and densitometry. TLC has the advantages that it is fast, it has good resolving power, and it allows the detection of small quantities (8). TLC also enables the completeness of the separation of the components to be observed. Besides being suitable for the analysis of all lipid classes, the densitometric procedure permits the quantitation of compounds without removing them from the plate. Romans (9) used a whole-spot reflectance method for the quantitation of lipids on thin-layer chromatoplates. This method is similar to densitometry but does not require the expensive equipment nor does it require as much time to complete an analysis. Because of the potential usefulness of Romans method, plant lipids will be used to re-examine the precision and to determine the accuracy of the method

Lipid Analysis of Maturing Crambe Seed

For several years, plants have been screened in the search for compounds that might have a potential use in industry and which presently have no other suitable source (1). During a screening study, Mikolajczak et al. (2) found that crambe (common name for Crambe abyssinica) contained a high percentage of erucic acid. Erucic acid has many potential industrial uses and is currently being obtained from imported rapeseed (J). Because there is presently no suitable domestic source of erucic acid, crambe is a potential new crop for the United States. Field studies of crambe have shown that the seeds tend to shatter when mature and thus seed losses occur while the crop is being harvested. (4). If the crambe seed could be harvested while immature, the shattering problem would be reduced. Early harvesting would not necessarily decrease the value of the crop if the erucic acid content of the seed reached its maximum before the seed matured. Sims (5) and McKillican (6) have studied the lipid changes in maturing crambe seeds, but their experiments were not conducted in controlled environments. Sims\u27 results show that erucic acid continually increases to maturity. Similarly McKillican states that on a weight per seed basis, erucic acid increases steadily to maturity in crambe. However, the data she presents appear to indicate that there is a relatively constant erucic acid content from 20 DAF (days after fertilization) to maturity. Since there appears to be some variation in the above authors\u27 results and because environmental conditions affect seed oil composition, the lipid changes in maturing crambe seed will be examined under greenhouse conditions. In the original plans of this study, all lipid classes were to be analyzed and thus a general method_ of analysis was desired. Such a method has been described by Privett et al. (7). The method involves the use of thin-layer chromatography (TLC) and densitometry. TLC has the advantages that it is fast, it has good resolving power, and it allows the detection of small quantities (8). TLC also enables the completeness of the separation of the components to be observed. Besides being suitable for the analysis of all lipid classes, the densitometric procedure permits the quantitation of compounds without removing them from the plate. Romans (9) used a whole-spot reflectance method for the quantitation of lipids on thin-layer chromatoplates. This method is similar to densitometry but does not require the expensive equipment nor does it require as much time to complete an analysis. Because of the potential usefulness of Romans method, plant lipids will be used to re-examine the precision and to determine the accuracy of the method