2 research outputs found
Validity of the prognostication tool PREDICT version 2.2 in Japanese breast cancer patients
Abstract Introduction PREDICT is a prognostication tool that calculates the potential benefit of various postsurgical treatments on the overall survival (OS) of patients with nonmetastatic invasive breast cancer. Once patient, tumor, and treatment details have been entered, the tool will show the estimated 5â, 10â, and 15âyear OS outcomes, both with and without adjuvant therapies. This study aimed to conduct an external validation of the prognostication tool PREDICT version 2.2 by evaluating its predictive accuracy of the 5â and 10âyear OS outcomes among female patients with nonmetastatic invasive breast cancer in Japan. Methods All female patients diagnosed from 2001 to 2013 with unilateral, nonmetastatic, invasive breast cancer and had undergone surgical treatment at Kyushu University Hospital, Fukuoka, Japan, were selected. Observed and predicted 5â and 10âyear OS rates were analyzed for the validation population and the subgroups. Calibration and discriminatory accuracy were assessed using Chiâsquared goodnessâofâfit test and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results A total of 636 eligible cases were selected from 1, 213 records. Predicted and observed OS differed by 0.9% (p = 0.322) for 5âyear OS, and 2.4% (p = 0.086) for 10âyear OS. Discriminatory accuracy results for 5âyear (AUC = 0.707) and 10âyear (AUC = 0.707) OS were fairly well. Conclusion PREDICT tool accurately estimated the 5â and 10âyear OS in the overall Japanese study population. However, caution should be used for interpretation of the 5âyear OS outcomes in patients that are â„65 years old, and also for the 10âyear OS outcomes in patients that are â„65 years old, those with histologic grade 3 and Luminal A tumors, and in those considering ETx or no systemic treatment