Where do I go and what should I do? Routes through further education

This paper investigates the educational attainment of young people between the ages of sixteen and eighteen after having entered full-time post-compulsory education. In particular we focus on the educational attainment and labour market trajectory of `underachievers´: young people who have chosen to remain in full-time education at age sixteen, despite not gaining the widely recognised U.K. academic benchmark of five GCSE grades A*-C. Our results suggest that the best route to educational success for young people considered as of lower ability at age 16 is through the FE college where they catch-up with their `more able´ counterparts by age 18

Overeducation across British regions

This paper analyses levels of over-education and wage returns to education for males across eleven regions of the UK using Labour Force Survey data. Significant differences are found in the probability of being over-educated across regions; also, differences are found in the return to the ‘correct’ level of education in each region, in each case associated with flexibility of movement between and into particular regions, which determines the ease of job matching. Furthermore, evidence is found that, after controlling for the level of education acquired, there exists a premium to the ‘correct’ level of education, which varies across UK regions

The Cost Structure of Higher Education in Further Education Colleges in England

This paper examines the cost of the increased provision of higher education courses within further education colleges in England. We believe this to be the first attempt to fit a cost function specifically to the further education sector. Cost functions for a sample of 96 colleges over a two-year period, from 2000 to 2002, are fitted using a panel data methodology as well as stochastic frontier analysis. We compare and contrast our findings with a sample of 959 US colleges. Our findings indicate that most further education colleges are able to benefit from economies of scale. Results from both methodologies suggest the presence of product-specific economies of scale, substantial ray economies of scale and indicate that higher education classroom-based courses, such as business studies, as well as vocational courses display substantial economies of scope

Retired athletes : when the spotlight dims : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Sport and Exercise, Massey University, Albany, New Zealand

The purpose of this study was to; (1) examine the experiences of elite New Zealand athletes during the retirement transition and, (2) determine whether current retirement-related assistance in New Zealand is perceived by elite athletes to enhance adjustment to retirement from elite-level sport. An extensive literature review underlies the study by introducing theories and models related to athletic retirement and examining what is currently known about the experiences of elite athletes during the transition. Semi-structured interviews were used to gather descriptive data from 16 former elite New Zealand athletes who retired within seven years of commencement of the study. Data was analysed using NVivo software and Taylor and Ogilvie’s (1994) conceptual model of adaptation to retirement was used in a thematic analysis of data. This study provided clearer understanding of the experiences of elite New Zealand athletes regarding the retirement transition, and helped to identify whether current athlete retirement-related interventions are sufficient. As well, participants made suggestions for future retirement interventions and/or changes to interventions currently offered. New findings revealed that career/education interventions were available to and highly used by 12 participants who were carded and had access to these interventions. Availability and usage of psychological/emotional interventions was found to be limited or non-existent. Findings that were aligned with or contested previous literature included multicausal reasons led to all participants’ retirements. Participants experienced high athletic identity, high perceived control over their retirement, and retirements that, to varying degrees, were both voluntary and involuntary. Pre-planning was the most prominent resource used and enhanced participants’ career prospects. Furthermore, it was found that most participants had both positive and negative retirement experiences during the transition. Future research could include longitudinal designs, which might provide a more accurate account of athletes’ experiences and perceptions of the retirement transition as they occur, in particular the variables (e.g. athletic identity, social support) encountered

Debt and Health

Debt problems in the UK have recently become much more severe, especially for the lowest income groups, and we examine here their impact on health, using data from the national Families´ and Children´s Survey (FACS). We model the relationship between debt and health as a simultaneous two-way interaction, and find that debt levels have a negative effect on both physical and psychological health. We find that debt repayment structure, defined as the percentage of debt borrowed in high-interest categories, has an impact on health independent of the level of debt. The interaction between debt and health may aggravate the poverty trap, by pushing heavily-indebted low-income people into ill-health, which then makes it difficult for them to acquire or hold on to the steady jobs needed to ease their debt problems. We also find that worry has a negative influence on debt management capacity, and thence on health, which makes it more difficult for those caught in a debt trap to escape from it. Membership of credit unions tends to reduce worry, however, and thereby may facilitate escape from the debt-ill health spiral

Community development finance institutions and the ‘poverty trap’: social and fiscal impact

This paper examines the current and potential ability of `community development financial institutions´ – institutions aimed at reducing the incidence of financial exclusion at the bottom end of the capital market – to reduce poverty, and the fiscal implications of this process. It seeks to connect the growing literature on labour supply functions for the self-employed with the literature on poverty and measures to escape from it, generating in the process a `poverty exit function´ which is then estimated against data (at this stage, a pilot sample of 45 self-employed households only, plus their employees) for three UK cities. Our model, by analogy with the `poverty trap´ models sometimes used in developing countries, has potentially self-reinforcing features, in which in the presence of certain parameter values efforts to get out of poverty only make the problem worse; but this, to our knowledge, is the first application of such a model to an industrialised country. The quantitative analysis indicates a negative role, in escaping from the poverty trap, for uninsured shocks. It indicates a positive role for formal education and for institutional measures which protect against risk; indeed, some of independent variables such as training are significant only if interacted with protection against risk, implying that simple injections of inputs are insufficient as a support policy for the sector. We make a preliminary investigation of the fiscal savings arising from investment in the CDFI sector, of which the upper bound is about £350 million a year or about 1.5 per cent of the total social social security budget; these impacts, however, are sensitive to variations in the policies of both CDFIs and the various levels of government support for the sector. The qualitative part of the analysis, in addition, suggests a positive role for `integrated support´ to microentrepreneurs which combines finance, mentoring and training. We have observed that many escapes from the poverty trap are achieved by employees rather than by entrepreneurs, which draws attention to the importance of growing along a labour-intensive production function, which ironically was in our sample secured better by small-to-medium firms than by start-up enterprises. Finally, a key variable in the exit-from-poverty process is the `regeneration multiplier´: the extent to which benefits provided by CDFIs remain within, or leak outside, target areas of high social deprivation. This multiplier varied greatly across our samples, being highest in Glasgow and lowest in Sheffield. We surmise (and proper analysis of this parameter is an important agenda for future research) that the regeneration multiplier varies negatively with the wage level and positively with the level of human capital inside regeneration areas. Diversification of financial products, and accompanying expenditure in support of regeneration areas by incentives to source labour and materials locally, could be a useful addition to this policy agenda

Incentivising Trust

We argue that trust can be incentivised by measures which increase the ability of trusters to protect themselves against risk. We work within the framework originally established by Berg, Dickhaut and McCabe (1995) in which trust is measured experimentally as the ability to generate reciprocity in response to an initial offer of money within a two-person game. An incentive is conveyed both by means of variations in the multiplier applied to the first player´s initial offer and by giving the first player the opportunity to insure themselves against the possibility that the second player will fail to reciprocate their initial offer. Measured trust is strongly responsive to both these incentives. Thus third parties have the ability to influence the outcome of the game, not only, as in the analysis of Charness et al (2008), by punishing failure to reciprocate and rewarding `good´ initial offers, but also by offering protection which strengthens the first player´s risk efficacy, or ratio of assets to risk

Community development finance institutions and the ‘poverty trap’: social and fiscal impact

This paper examines the current and potential ability of `community development financial institutions´ – institutions aimed at reducing the incidence of financial exclusion at the bottom end of the capital market – to reduce poverty, and the fiscal implications of this process. It seeks to connect the growing literature on labour supply functions for the self-employed with the literature on poverty and measures to escape from it, generating in the process a `poverty exit function´ which is then estimated against data (at this stage, a pilot sample of 45 self-employed households only, plus their employees) for three UK cities. Our model, by analogy with the `poverty trap´ models sometimes used in developing countries, has potentially self-reinforcing features, in which in the presence of certain parameter values efforts to get out of poverty only make the problem worse; but this, to our knowledge, is the first application of such a model to an industrialised country. The quantitative analysis indicates a negative role, in escaping from the poverty trap, for uninsured shocks. It indicates a positive role for formal education and for institutional measures which protect against risk; indeed, some of independent variables such as training are significant only if interacted with protection against risk, implying that simple injections of inputs are insufficient as a support policy for the sector. We make a preliminary investigation of the fiscal savings arising from investment in the CDFI sector, of which the upper bound is about £350 million a year or about 1.5 per cent of the total social social security budget; these impacts, however, are sensitive to variations in the policies of both CDFIs and the various levels of government support for the sector. The qualitative part of the analysis, in addition, suggests a positive role for `integrated support´ to microentrepreneurs which combines finance, mentoring and training. We have observed that many escapes from the poverty trap are achieved by employees rather than by entrepreneurs, which draws attention to the importance of growing along a labour-intensive production function, which ironically was in our sample secured better by small-to-medium firms than by start-up enterprises. Finally, a key variable in the exit-from-poverty process is the `regeneration multiplier´: the extent to which benefits provided by CDFIs remain within, or leak outside, target areas of high social deprivation. This multiplier varied greatly across our samples, being highest in Glasgow and lowest in Sheffield. We surmise (and proper analysis of this parameter is an important agenda for future research) that the regeneration multiplier varies negatively with the wage level and positively with the level of human capital inside regeneration areas. Diversification of financial products, and accompanying expenditure in support of regeneration areas by incentives to source labour and materials locally, could be a useful addition to this policy agenda

The radiative forcing potential of different climate geoengineering options

Climate geoengineering proposals seek to rectify the Earth's current and potential future radiative imbalance, either by reducing the absorption of incoming solar (shortwave) radiation, or by removing CO2 from the atmosphere and transferring it to long-lived reservoirs, thus increasing outgoing longwave radiation. A fundamental criterion for evaluating geoengineering options is their climate cooling effectiveness, which we quantify here in terms of radiative forcing potential. We use a simple analytical approach, based on energy balance considerations and pulse response functions for the decay of CO2 perturbations. This aids transparency compared to calculations with complex numerical models, but is not intended to be definitive. It allows us to compare the relative effectiveness of a range of proposals. We consider geoengineering options as additional to large reductions in CO2 emissions. By 2050, some land carbon cycle geoengineering options could be of comparable magnitude to mitigation "wedges", but only stratospheric aerosol injections, albedo enhancement of marine stratocumulus clouds, or sunshades in space have the potential to cool the climate back toward its pre-industrial state. Strong mitigation, combined with global-scale air capture and storage, afforestation, and bio-char production, i.e. enhanced CO2 sinks, might be able to bring CO2 back to its pre-industrial level by 2100, thus removing the need for other geoengineering. Alternatively, strong mitigation stabilising CO2 at 500 ppm, combined with geoengineered increases in the albedo of marine stratiform clouds, grasslands, croplands and human settlements might achieve a patchy cancellation of radiative forcing. Ocean fertilisation options are only worthwhile if sustained on a millennial timescale and phosphorus addition may have greater long-term potential than iron or nitrogen fertilisation. Enhancing ocean upwelling or downwelling have trivial effects on any meaningful timescale. Our approach provides a common framework for the evaluation of climate geoengineering proposals, and our results should help inform the prioritisation of further research into them

Advertising and product launch strategies in the light of tobacco advertising legislation.

This short paper aims to increase understanding of tobacco companies’ advertising strategies. Time series data and intervention analysis methods are used to investigate whether tougher tobacco advertising legislation, and the threat of such legislation, result in firms significantly changing their advertising activities in the period preceding the enactment of legislation. The paper considers legislation introduced by both the UK Government and the EC in recent years. Results suggest that there is some significant short-term increase in advertising behaviour, coinciding with product launches that firms instigate prior to legislation changes. However, firms do not generally maintain higher advertising expenditures than previously throughout the period between legislation being introduced and coming into force