Asymmetric Information Arrival and the Short-Run Dynamics of Australian Dollar Volatility: a Mixture of Distributions Approach

Contemporary commentators point to excess volatility within the FX market as an indicator of market inefficiency. It is thought that the excessive volatility is being driven by speculation. Policy options have emerged which focus on bounding volatility via government regulation of speculation. These options make implicit assumptions; one, that volatility is excessive and two, that it is speculation which is driving volatility. What is not sufficiently understood is the role public information arrival plays in terms of explaining returns and its volatility impact. It is the purpose of this paper to simply model Australian Dollar returns and volatility with public information arrival, which has been classified into categories so as to ascertain whether total information arrival or the arrival of specific types of information is related to changes in returns and volatility. We use an EGARCH model so as to pick up the asymmetric impacts of good and bad news. We find evidence from both a GARCH and EGARCH model that public information plays an important role in the determination of AUD returns and volatility and that good news impacts are less then negative ones. We also find that economic information in relation to full information set has a greater relationship to volatility. This has some interesting implications in terms of the volatility debate. Rather then regulating speculation, it may be more relevant to clarify information.

The impacts of traffic calming measures on vehicle exhaust emmissions.

This Thesis describes a study of the impacts of traffic calming on exhaust emissions, the most detailed and extensive of its kind to date. The main objectives of the work were to measure the effects of different types of traffic calming measure on vehicle emissions, to develop a system of comparative performance indicators and guidance for local authorities, and to assess and improve the performance of an existing micro-scale emission model in traffic calming applications. There were several elements to the research which have not previously been reported, including the development of driving cycles for traffic calming based on external speed measurements and the use of remote sensing to assess the impacts of traffic calming on emissions in situ. Nine different types of measure were investigated, including a mixture of vertical deflections (e.g. road humps, speed cushions) and horizontal deflections (e. g. chicanes). Driving cycles were formulated to represent vehicle operation before and after the introduction of the schemes, based on traffic speeds measured using both an instrumented car and an external method (LIDAR). Fuel consumption and emissions of CO, HC, NOx, and C02 from a total of 22 cars (including petrol non-catalyst, petrol catalyst, and diesel vehicles) were measured on a chassis dynamometer using the cycles. Emissions of total particulate matter were also recorded from the diesel vehicles. The results from the laboratory emission tests were used to compare the performance of an 'average speed' emission model (MEET) and a 'modal' emission model (MODEM). Also, an attempt was made to improve the accuracy of MODEM model in such applications by developing a variant model (MODEM-TC) for use in traffic calming applications. In MODEM-TC the original MODEM emission matrices were replaced with ones derived from the laboratory test results. The emission tests indicated that traffic calming increases exhaust emissions. For the three types of car tested, emissions of CO, HC, and C02 increased by between 20% and 60%. Only the diesel cars showed a substantial (30%) and statistically significant increase in NOx emissions. Emissions of total particulate matter from diesel cars also increased by 30%. The more 'severe' traffic calming measures (e.g . road humps) tended to result in the greatest speed reductions and some of the largest increases in emissions. The 50-73% increase in mass emissions of CO per kilometre (for all vehicles) determined by remote sensing agreed reasonably well with the range of impacts measured in the laboratory emission tests, but the remote sensing HC results were less conclusive. For almost all combinations of vehicle type and pollutant, the MEET model provided a more reliable indication of the likely impact of traffic calming than the MODEM and MODEM-TC models, in spite of the fact that the latter employ a more detailed mechanism for representing vehicle operation. It was concluded that the most fundamental Problem with modal models is that the analyser emission signals on which they are based are delayed and damped relative to the 'true' signal. .It appears that further advances in the field of modal emission modelling will not be forthcoming until realistic continuous emission data are available. Other workers are currently developing a mathematical model of the measurement system which can be used to reconstruct the original emission signal in the exhaust pipe from the one measured at the analyser

Seeing the natural world: a tension between pupils’ diverse conceptions as revealed by their visual representations and monolithic science lessons

In this paper we report on drawings of the natural environment produced by a sample of 13-14 year-olds. One of our interests is in the extent to which these young people see the world in the way rewarded in science lessons. With rare exceptions, school science generally assumes that for any scientific issue there is a single valid scientific conception so that alternative conceptions are misconceptions. The drawings reveal a plurality of ways in which the natural environment is portrayed and we conclude that there is scientific as well as other worth in this diversity. We argue that schools need to take account of this diversity; many pupils will not be interested in a single, monolithic depiction of the natural world in their school science lessons

The Short Run Impact of Scheduled Macroeconomic Announcements on the Australian Dollar during 1998

This study examines the high frequency reaction of the Australian Dollar (AUD) to new information contained in scheduled macroeconomic news releases in Australia for 1998 using Money Market Services trader expectations data. By using exchange rate data sampled at 10-second intervals, major price adjustments are found to begin almost immediately following the initial release of information and are complete within one minute of the announcement. There is some evidence of over-reaction after the initial release but returns in the first minute do not seem to have any meaningful structure that would enable prediction of returns in the second minute. The AUD appears to trade efficiently and the market absorbs new information quickly.

Subclinical psychopathy, interpersonal workplace exchanges and moral emotions through the lens of affective events theory (AET)

The purpose of this paper is to better comprehend the subclinical psychopath’s intra and interpersonal moral emotions in the context of their natural habitat, the workplace alongside implications for employees and organisations. This study draws on Affective Events Theory (AET) to illuminate this dark-side phenomenon. Thematic analysis is used to identify themes from qualitative data collected from a small sample of interviews conducted with HRM Directors and other managers The findings show that the subclinical psychopath is agentic being unfettered by intra, self-directed conscious moral emotions. The predominant moral emotion directed at employees during interpersonal workplace exchanges, is typically anger. However, it appears likely the subclinical psychopath fakes this moral emotion as a smokescreen for manipulative and exploitative gains The predominant moral emotion directed by employees towards the subclinical psychopath is fear. Employees resort to avoidance and withdrawal behaviour and intentions to quit become a reality. This has pernicious implications for organisations in terms of productivity and effectiveness. Notwithstanding the difficulties associated with this type of research and participants, future empirical testing is required. HRM has an important role to play. The signalling quality of employees’ moral emotions and subsequent dysfunctional avoidance and withdrawal behaviour can provide valuable information to HRM in the detection of subclincial psychopaths which is acknowledged as notoriously difficult. This study makes an important contribution to scholarship on subclincal psychopathy and makes novel use of Affective Events Theory (AET) to explore this personality type as a driver of employees’ negative workplace emotions, the impact on employees’ behaviour alongside implications for organisational effectiveness

Service quality: mind the gap!

The characteristics of service can be somewhat slippery and difficult to pin down, not least of all because any given service can only be seen through the eyes of its recipient. This is emphasised by Peters (1985) who stated that ‘customers perceive service in their own unique, idiosyncratic, emotional, irrational, end-of-the-day, and totally human terms.’ Furthermore, and as is noted by Deming (1986) compared to a customer’s reaction to the quality of manufactured goods a customer’s reaction to service quality is immediate. However, service quality, whatever it may be, and however complex a phenomena it might also be, cannot be ignored since service quality can be a key competitive differentiating factor. The SERVQUAL scale or gaps model as it has become known is a common method of measuring service quality. This paper will review the gaps model 25 years on, and make a critical evaluation and assessment of whether the model is still as appropriate in view of the current service environment being dynamic and much changed

Teacher Opinion on Technology

I f the introduction of technology into the curriculum is to be 'wholesome' then we must pay heed to the position of the teacher. We do not really know (I have yet to find evidence of investigation into this area) how they perceive their position or what reservations they have on this issue. I do however feel, through casual discussion and aquaintance, that there still exists a mood, amongst those not obviously involved with high profile initiatives, of concern that many educational values are undermined by such initiatives. Our picture cannot be complete until their position is ascertained. To this ends I undertook to simply ask as near to a typical cross section of teachers as possible how they viewed the matter. I approached three schools in the local consortium (including my own) with a possible maximum sample of 150-200 full and part-time teaching staff

Monte Carlo simulation of a two-field effective Hamiltonian of complete wetting

Recent work on the complete wetting transition for three dimensional systems with short-ranged forces has emphasized the role played by the coupling of order-parameter fluctuations near the wall and depinning interface. It has been proposed that an effective two-field Hamiltonian, which predicts a renormalisation of the wetting parameter, could explain the controversy between RG analysis of the capillary-wave model and Monte Carlo simulations on the Ising model. In this letter results of extensive Monte Carlo simulations of the two-field model are presented. The results are in agreement with prediction of a renormalized wetting parameter $\omega$.Comment: To appear in Europhysics Letters. Latex file, 6 pages, 2 figure

Integration of 3D-Printing into Construction Engineering Curriculum

The main purpose of this project was to integrate the use of 3D printing technology into Construction Engineering curriculum. Specifically, the project focused on developing coursework that could be used to introduce students to the process of 3D printing and how it could be applied to their field of study. Two courses, CE 170 and ConE 122, were identified as classes where implementing this coursework would be most appropriate. Within each of these courses, an assignment was created that gave students hands-on experience with the 3D printing process. Each assignment gave students the opportunity to design their own building model (using either AutoCAD or Revit software) which they could then print after completing the required procedures. In each class, the assignment was introduced in a presentation which taught students about 3D printing technology as well as how to use the software they would be using in their assignment. Students were then given time to complete their assignment using concepts they learned from the presentation. Overall, students were excited about the concept of 3D printing and many were able to successfully print their models. These assignments laid strong groundwork for more complete implementation of 3D printing in the future