The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts

Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species’ threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project – and avert – future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups – including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems – www.predicts.org.uk). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015

Inbreeding in Mimulus guttatus reduces visitation by bumble bee pollinators.

Inbreeding in plants typically reduces individual fitness but may also alter ecological interactions. This study examined the effect of inbreeding in the mixed-mating annual Mimulus guttatus on visitation by pollinators (Bombus impatiens) in greenhouse experiments. Previous studies of M. guttatus have shown that inbreeding reduced corolla size, flower number, and pollen quantity and quality. Using controlled crosses, we produced inbred and outbred families from three different M. guttatus populations. We recorded the plant genotypes that bees visited and the number of flowers probed per visit. In our first experiment, bees were 31% more likely to visit outbred plants than those selfed for one generation and 43% more likely to visit outbred plants than those selfed for two generations. Inbreeding had only a small effect on the number of flowers probed once bees arrived at a genotype. These differences were explained partially by differences in mean floral display and mean flower size, but even when these variables were controlled statistically, the effect of inbreeding remained large and significant. In a second experiment we quantified pollen viability from inbred and self plants. Bees were 37-54% more likely to visit outbred plants, depending on the population, even when controlling for floral display size. Pollen viability proved to be as important as floral display in predicting pollinator visitation in one population, but the overall explanatory power of a multiple regression model was weak. Our data suggested that bees use cues in addition to display size, flower size, and pollen reward quality in their discrimination of inbred plants. Discrimination against inbred plants could have effects on plant fitness and thereby reinforce selection for outcrossing. Inbreeding in plant populations could also reduce resource quality for pollinators, potentially resulting in negative effects on pollinator populations

Ecological and life-history traits predict bee species responses to environmental disturbances

The ability to predict the responses of ecological communities and individual species to human-induced environmental change remains a key issue for ecologists and conservation managers alike. Responses are often variable among species within groups making general predictions difficult. One option is to include ecological trait information that might help to disentangle patterns of response and also provide greater understanding of how particular traits link whole clades to their environment. Although this ‘‘trait-guild” approach has been used for single disturbances, the importance of particular traits on general responses to multiple disturbances has not been explored. We used a mixed model analysis of 19 data sets from throughout the world to test the effect of ecological and life-history traits on the responses of bee species to different types of anthropogenic environmental change. These changes included habitat loss, fragmentation, agricultural intensification, pesticides and fire. Individual traits significantly affected bee species responses to different disturbances and several traits were broadly predictive among multiple disturbances. The location of nests – above vs. below ground – significantly affected response to habitat loss, agricultural intensification, tillage regime (within agriculture) and fire. Species that nested above ground were on average more negatively affected by isolation from natural habitat and intensive agricultural land use than were species nesting below ground. In contrast below-ground-nesting species were more negatively affected by tilling than were above-ground nesters. The response of different nesting guilds to fire depended on the time since the burn. Social bee species were more strongly affected by isolation from natural habitat and pesticides than were solitary bee species. Surprisingly, body size did not consistently affect species responses, despite its importance in determining many aspects of individuals’ interaction with their environment. Although synergistic interactions among traits remain to be explored, individual traits can be useful in predicting and understanding responses of related species to global change

Appendix A. Location of all habitat fragments and six of the 12 continuous desert sites sampled in the study.

Location of all habitat fragments and six of the 12 continuous desert sites sampled in the study

Appendix B. Species of bees sampled at Larrea habitat fragments in Tucson, including total counts of individuals, and each species' dietary and nesting habits.

Species of bees sampled at Larrea habitat fragments in Tucson, including total counts of individuals, and each species' dietary and nesting habits

Predicting bee community responses to land-use changes: Effects of geographic and taxonomic biases.

Land-use change and intensification threaten bee populations worldwide, imperilling pollination services. Global models are needed to better characterise, project, and mitigate bees' responses to these human impacts. The available data are, however, geographically and taxonomically unrepresentative; most data are from North America and Western Europe, overrepresenting bumblebees and raising concerns that model results may not be generalizable to other regions and taxa. To assess whether the geographic and taxonomic biases of data could undermine effectiveness of models for conservation policy, we have collated from the published literature a global dataset of bee diversity at sites facing land-use change and intensification, and assess whether bee responses to these pressures vary across 11 regions (Western, Northern, Eastern and Southern Europe; North, Central and South America; Australia and New Zealand; South East Asia; Middle and Southern Africa) and between bumblebees and other bees. Our analyses highlight strong regionally-based responses of total abundance, species richness and Simpson's diversity to land use, caused by variation in the sensitivity of species and potentially in the nature of threats. These results suggest that global extrapolation of models based on geographically and taxonomically restricted data may underestimate the true uncertainty, increasing the risk of ecological surprises

The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

The PREDICTS project—Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)—has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity