Technical-economic potential of PV systems on Colombian residential sector

Solar energy is the second most applied variable renewable source worldwide, after the wind. In 2014, its world installed capacity was around 177 GW. During the past years, the yearly new capacity of photovoltaic (PV) solar yearly new capacity has exceeded new wind projects, highlighting this new solar power trend. This study aims to estimate technical and economic potential of the solar PV in the Colombian residential sector taking into account characteristics such as socio-economic stratum, household electric power consumption, tariffs by utility and capital cost. Technical-economic simulation tools were integrated into a geographical information system (‘GIS’) to permit a spatial analysis. Results shows solar generation potential and its annual penetration potential for all socioeconomic strata within all Colombian municipalities up to 2030. The current technical potential is around 9.1 GWp (13.10 TWh/year), while the economic potential will be 3.2 GWp by 2030.The authors would like to express their gratitude to the Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Cientifico e Tecnológico (National Scientific and Technological Development Council – CNPQ), Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior ((Brazilian Federal Agency for the Improvement of Higher Education-CAPES) and NETEP - European-Brazilian Network on Energy Planning, a project supported by a Marie Curie International Research Staff Exchange Scheme Fellowship within the 7th European Union Framework Programme (PIRSES-GA-2013-612263), for the essential support given for this work to be carried out

Climate-energy-water nexus in Brazilian oil refineries

International audienceOil refineries are major CO2 emitters and are usually located in water-stress sites. While some CO2 mitigation options can reduce water demand, others can increase it, and still others are neutral. By simulating two parametric models, one for all Brazilian refineries, and the other locally detailing the water balance of the country´s largest refinery, this study aimed to quantify the impacts of CO2 mitigation options on the water use of oil refineries. Findings show that, by pricing CO2 emissions up to 100 US$/tCO2, the list of mitigation options was able to abate 25% of the annual emissions in Brazilian refineries. A relevant share of this abatement derives from the implementation of carbon capture (CC) facilities in fluid catalytic cracking and hydrogen generation units. However, these CC facilities offset the co-benefits of other CO2 mitigation options that can reduce steam and cold-water requirements in refineries. In fact, for the largest Brazilian oil refinery, the implementation of all mitigation measures had almost no effect on its water balance. This means that CO2 abatement in refineries has no significant impact on water demand (no negative trade-off). However, this also means that the water stress in oil refineries should be dealt with measures not directly linked to CO2 abatement (no significant co-benefits)

Analysis of energy security and sustainability in future low carbon scenarios for Brazil

This study estimated a series of indicators to assess the energy security of supply and global and local environmental impacts under different mitigation scenarios through 2050 in Brazil, designed with the integrated optimisation energy system model MESSAGE-BRAZIL. The assessment of interactions between environmental impacts and energy security dimensions was complemented through the application of life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. Overall results imply energy security establishes more synergies than trade-offs in increasingly stringent mitigation scenarios, especially patent within the sustainability dimension, which increases energy security and provides additional benefits regarding climate change mitigation and air pollution emissions. It is still necessary to extend analysis to other energy sectors in addition to the power supply sector, to promote a better understanding of repercussions of energy scenario expansion in energy security.This work was funded by the Brazilian research funding agencies CNPq and CAPES, under the Science Without Borders Programme, and the Marie Curie International Research Staff Exchange Scheme Fellowship within the 7th European Union Framework Programme, under the project NETEP- European Brazilian Network on Energy Planning (PIRSES-GA-2013-612263). We also acknowledge funding from US EPA and US AID (under Interagency Agreements DW89923040 and DW89923951US), through the LAMP, and the European Union, through the CLIMACAP project (EuropeAid/131944/C/SER/Multi)

Methodology for hubs placement analysis: an application to Portuguese industrial CO₂ emissions

Carbon capture and Geological storage (CCGS) is recognised as a technology capable of reducing large-scale emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), which is an important part of the portfolio of alternatives necessary to achieve significant reductions in the global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). As of this context where greenhouses gases constrains in Europe would come, and CCGS would be a mitigation option for GHG, it becomes necessary to develop a CO2 transport network to collect and inject it in a proper geological reservoir. Therefore, the following methodology can help to implement a pipeline network in any region in the world by doing a preliminary analysis about the best places to locate a HUB (temporary CO2 reservoir). In this paper, the demonstration of the methodology refers to Portugal’s industrial emission sources in which CCS could be implemented.This research was supported by a Marie Curie International Research Staff Exchange Scheme Fellowship within the 7th European Union Framework Programme, under project NETEP- European Brazilian Network on Energy Planning (PIRSES-GA-2013612263)

Understanding cost escalation in nuclear reactor construction projects

This work seeks to evaluate overnight construction costs (OCC) and lead time escalation of nuclear reactors from 1955 to 2016. To this end, a comprehensive database of commercial Light Water Reactors (LWR) was developed and a statistical analysis was conducted. Findings reveal that there is significant delay in lead time, especially for the last generation reactors constructed from 2010’s. This results in the escalation of capital costs rather than a decline. Average OCC of newer reactors are 60% higher than the ones implemented in the earlier stages of the nuclear era. This suggests a negative learning curve effect for both OCC and lead time, which threats the market and financial sustainability of current and future nuclear energy projects. Although this is a general trend, this negative effect is country specific and, thus, induced by national policies and regulatory frameworks. Therefore, the role of nuclear technology to cope with the decarbonisation of the power sector must be better evaluated, taking into account the real cost impacts of nuclear technology implementation.This work was also funded by the Brazilian research funding agency CNPq.This work was funded by the Brazilian research funding agency CNPq and the Marie Curie International Research Staff Exchange Scheme Fellowship within the 7th European Union Framework Programme, under the project NETEP- European Brazilian Network on Energy Planning (PIRSES-GA-2013-612263)

BLOEM: A spatially explicit model of bioenergy and carbon capture and storage, applied to Brazil

Bioenergy could play a major role in decarbonizing energy systems in the context of the Paris Agreement. Large-scale bioenergy deployment could be related to sustainability issues and requires major infrastructure investments. It, therefore, needs to be studied carefully. The Bioenergy and Land Optimization Spatially Explicit Model (BLOEM) presented here allows for assessing different bioenergy pathways while encompassing various dimensions that influence their optimal deployment. In this study, BLOEM was applied to the Brazilian context by coupling it with the Brazilian Land Use and Energy Systems (BLUES) model. This allowed investigating the most cost-effective ways of attending future bioenergy supply projections and studying the role of recovered degraded pasture lands in improving land availability in a sustainable and competitive manner. The results show optimizing for limiting deforestation and minimizing logistics costs results in different outcomes. It also indicates that recovering degraded pasture lands is attractive from both logistics and climate perspectives. The systemic approach of BLOEM provides spatial results, highlighting the trade-offs between crop allocation, land use and the logistics dynamics between production, conversion, and demand, providing valuable insights for regional and national climate policy design. This makes it a useful tool for mapping sustainable bioenergy value chain pathways

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries(1,2). However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world(3) and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health(4,5). However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol-which is a marker of cardiovascular riskchanged from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million-4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.Peer reviewe

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks