Improving Hurricane Power Outage Prediction Models Through the Inclusion of Local Environmental Factors

Tropical cyclones can significantly damage the electrical power system, so an accurate spatiotemporal forecast of outages prior to landfall can help utilities to optimize the power restoration process. The purpose of this article is to enhance the predictive accuracy of the Spatially Generalized Hurricane Outage Prediction Model (SGHOPM) developed by Guikema et al. (2014). In this version of the SGHOPM, we introduce a new two‐step prediction procedure and increase the number of predictor variables. The first model step predicts whether or not outages will occur in each location and the second step predicts the number of outages. The SGHOPM environmental variables of Guikema et al. (2014) were limited to the wind characteristics (speed and duration of strong winds) of the tropical cyclones. This version of the model adds elevation, land cover, soil, precipitation, and vegetation characteristics in each location. Our results demonstrate that the use of a new two‐step outage prediction model and the inclusion of these additional environmental variables increase the overall accuracy of the SGHOPM by approximately 17%.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147200/1/risa12728_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147200/2/risa12728.pd

Quantum Fields and Extended Objects in Space-Times with Constant Curvature Spatial Section

The heat-kernel expansion and $\zeta$-regularization techniques for quantum field theory and extended objects on curved space-times are reviewed. In particular, ultrastatic space-times with spatial section consisting in manifold with constant curvature are discussed in detail. Several mathematical results, relevant to physical applications are presented, including exact solutions of the heat-kernel equation, a simple exposition of hyperbolic geometry and an elementary derivation of the Selberg trace formula. With regards to the physical applications, the vacuum energy for scalar fields, the one-loop renormalization of a self-interacting scalar field theory on a hyperbolic space-time, with a discussion on the topological symmetry breaking, the finite temperature effects and the Bose-Einstein condensation, are considered. Some attempts to generalize the results to extended objects are also presented, including some remarks on path integral quantization, asymptotic properties of extended objects and a novel representation for the one-loop (super)string free energy.Comment: Latex file, 122 page

A Genomewide Screen for Suppressors of Alu-Mediated Rearrangements Reveals a Role for PIF1

Alu-mediated rearrangement of tumor suppressor genes occurs frequently during carcinogenesis. In breast cancer, this mechanism contributes to loss of the wild-type BRCA1 allele in inherited disease and to loss of heterozygosity in sporadic cancer. To identify genes required for suppression of Alu-mediated recombination we performed a genomewide screen of a collection of 4672 yeast gene deletion mutants using a direct repeat recombination assay. The primary screen and subsequent analysis identified 12 candidate genes including TSA, ELG1, and RRM3, which are known to play a significant role in maintaining genomic stability. Genetic analysis of the corresponding human homologs was performed in sporadic breast tumors and in inherited BRCA1-associated carcinomas. Sequencing of these genes in high risk breast cancer families revealed a potential role for the helicase PIF1 in cancer predisposition. PIF1 variant L319P was identified in three breast cancer families; importantly, this variant, which is predicted to be functionally damaging, was not identified in a large series of controls nor has it been reported in either dbSNP or the 1000 Genomes Project. In Schizosaccharomyces pombe, Pfh1 is required to maintain both mitochondrial and nuclear genomic integrity. Functional studies in yeast of human PIF1 L319P revealed that this variant cannot complement the essential functions of Pfh1 in either the nucleus or mitochondria. Our results provide a global view of nonessential genes involved in suppressing Alu-mediated recombination and implicate variation in PIF1 in breast cancer predisposition

Pre-operative pulmonary assessment for patients with hip fracture

Hip fracture is a common injury among the elderly. Although patients who receive hip fracture surgery carry the best functional recovery compared to other treatment modalities, the presence of postoperative pulmonary complications, such as atelectasis, pneumonia, and pulmonary thromboembolism, may contribute to increased length of hospital stay, perioperative morbidity, and mortality. This review aims to provide evidence-based recommendations for preoperative assessment and perioperative strategies to reduce the risk of pulmonary complications after hip fracture surgery. Clinical assessment and basic laboratory results are sufficient to stratify the risk of postoperative pulmonary complications. Well-documented risk factors for pulmonary complications include advanced age, poor general health status, current infections, pre-existing cardiopulmonary diseases, hypoalbuminemia, and impaired renal function. Apart from optimizing the patient's medical conditions, interventions such as lung expansion maneuvers and thromboprophylaxis have been proven to be effective in reducing the risk of pulmonary complications after hip fracture surgery

BRCA1 and BRCA2 as molecular targets for phytochemicals indole-3-carbinol and genistein in breast and prostate cancer cells

Indole-3-carbinol (I3C) and genistein are naturally occurring chemicals derived from cruciferous vegetables and soy, respectively, with potential cancer prevention activity for hormone-responsive tumours (e.g., breast and prostate cancers). Previously, we showed that I3C induces BRCA1 expression and that both I3C and BRCA1 inhibit oestrogen (E2)-stimulated oestrogen receptor (ER-α) activity in human breast cancer cells. We now report that both I3C and genistein induce the expression of both breast cancer susceptibility genes (BRCA1 and BRCA2) in breast (MCF-7 and T47D) and prostate (DU-145 and LNCaP) cancer cell types, in a time- and dose-dependent fashion. Induction of the BRCA genes occurred at low doses of I3C (20 μM) and genistein (0.5–1.0 μM), suggesting potential relevance to cancer prevention. A combination of I3C and genistein gave greater than expected induction of BRCA expression. Studies using small interfering RNAs (siRNAs) and BRCA expression vectors suggest that the phytochemical induction of BRCA2 is due, in part, to BRCA1. Functional studies suggest that I3C-mediated cytoxicity is, in part, dependent upon BRCA1 and BRCA2. Inhibition of E2-stimulated ER-α activity by I3C and genistein was dependent upon BRCA1; and inhibition of ligand-inducible androgen receptor (AR) activity by I3C and genistein was partially reversed by BRCA1-siRNA. Finally, we provide evidence suggesting that the phytochemical induction of BRCA1 expression is due, in part, to endoplasmic reticulum stress response signalling. These findings suggest that the BRCA genes are molecular targets for some of the activities of I3C and genistein

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta