A Measure of Core Inflation in the UK

We develop a measure of core inflation in the UK over the period January1987 - December 1998, following the work of Bryan and Cecchetti (1996),Bryan, Cecchetti and Wiggins (1997) and Roger (1997). Disaggregation is into85 price categories. Given the high kurtosis of the price change distribution over this period, a trimmed mean is a more robust estimator of core inflation than other published measures such as the RPIX widely used in the UK, in particular by the Bank of England when targeting inflation. We discuss the relative advantages of our measure of core inflation, with emphasis on the determination of an optimal trimming point and on the analysis of the products whose price changes are excluded from our measure in each time period. The resulting measure appears well behaved, but differs noticeably from a number of published measures.

The Effect of an Early Planetesimal-Driven Migration of the Giant Planets on Terrestrial Planet Formation

The migration of the giant planets due to the scattering of planetesimals causes powerful resonances to move through the asteroid belt and the terrestrial planet region. Exactly when and how the giant planets migrated is not well known. In this paper we present results of an investigation of the formation of the terrestrial planets during and after the migration of the giant planets. The latter is assumed to have occurred immediately after the dissipation of the nebular disk -- i.e. "early" with respect to the timing of the Late Heavy Bombardment (LHB). The presumed cause of our modeled early migration of the giant planets is angular mometum transfer between the planets and scattered planetesimals.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Frequency-dependent selection can forecast evolution in Streptococcus pneumoniae

Predicting how pathogen populations will change over time is challenging. Such has been the case withStreptococcus pneumoniae, an important human pathogen, and the pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), which target only a fraction of the strains in the population. Here, we use the frequencies of accessory genes to predict changes in the pneumococcal population after vaccination, hypothesizing that these frequencies reflect negative frequency-dependent selection (NFDS) on the gene products. We find that the standardized predicted fitness of a strain, estimated by an NFDS-based model at the time the vaccine is introduced, enables us to predict whether the strain increases or decreases in prevalence following vaccination. Further, we are able to forecast the equilibrium post-vaccine population composition and assess the invasion capacity of emerging lineages. Overall, we provide a method for predicting the impact of an intervention on pneumococcal populations with potential application to other bacterial pathogens in which NFDS is a driving force.Peer reviewe

The missing large impact craters on Ceres

Asteroids provide fundamental clues to the formation and evolution of planetesimals. Collisional models based on the depletion of the primordial main belt of asteroids predict 10–15 craters >400 km should have formed on Ceres, the largest object between Mars and Jupiter, over the last 4.55 Gyr. Likewise, an extrapolation from the asteroid Vesta would require at least 6–7 such basins. However, Ceres’ surface appears devoid of impact craters >∼280 km. Here, we show a significant depletion of cerean craters down to 100–150 km in diameter. The overall scarcity of recognizable large craters is incompatible with collisional models, even in the case of a late implantation of Ceres in the main belt, a possibility raised by the presence of ammoniated phyllosilicates. Our results indicate that a significant population of large craters has been obliterated, implying that long-wavelength topography viscously relaxed or that Ceres experienced protracted widespread resurfacing

Progenitors of Type Ia Supernovae: Binary Stars with White Dwarf Companions

Type Ia SNe (SNe Ia) are thought to come from carbon-oxygen white dwarfs that accrete mass from binary companions until they approach the Chandrasekhar limit, ignite carbon, and undergo complete thermonuclear disruption. A survey of the observed types of binaries that contain white dwarfs is presented. We propose that certain systems that seem most promising as SN Ia progenitors should be more intensively observed and modeled, to determine whether the white dwarfs in these systems will be able to reach the Chandrasekhar limit. In view of the number of promising single-degenerate systems and the dearth of promising double-degenerate systems, we suspect that single-degenerates produce most or perhaps all SNe Ia, while double-degenerates produce some or perhaps none.Comment: 34 pages, to appear in New Astronomy Review

Single hadron response measurement and calorimeter jet energy scale uncertainty with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

The uncertainty on the calorimeter energy response to jets of particles is derived for the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). First, the calorimeter response to single isolated charged hadrons is measured and compared to the Monte Carlo simulation using proton-proton collisions at centre-of-mass energies of sqrt(s) = 900 GeV and 7 TeV collected during 2009 and 2010. Then, using the decay of K_s and Lambda particles, the calorimeter response to specific types of particles (positively and negatively charged pions, protons, and anti-protons) is measured and compared to the Monte Carlo predictions. Finally, the jet energy scale uncertainty is determined by propagating the response uncertainty for single charged and neutral particles to jets. The response uncertainty is 2-5% for central isolated hadrons and 1-3% for the final calorimeter jet energy scale.Comment: 24 pages plus author list (36 pages total), 23 figures, 1 table, submitted to European Physical Journal

Search for the standard model Higgs boson in the H to ZZ to 2l 2nu channel in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

A search for the standard model Higgs boson in the H to ZZ to 2l 2nu decay channel, where l = e or mu, in pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV is presented. The data were collected at the LHC, with the CMS detector, and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 4.6 inverse femtobarns. No significant excess is observed above the background expectation, and upper limits are set on the Higgs boson production cross section. The presence of the standard model Higgs boson with a mass in the 270-440 GeV range is excluded at 95% confidence level.Comment: Submitted to JHE

Search for New Physics with Jets and Missing Transverse Momentum in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV

A search for new physics is presented based on an event signature of at least three jets accompanied by large missing transverse momentum, using a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36 inverse picobarns collected in proton--proton collisions at sqrt(s)=7 TeV with the CMS detector at the LHC. No excess of events is observed above the expected standard model backgrounds, which are all estimated from the data. Exclusion limits are presented for the constrained minimal supersymmetric extension of the standard model. Cross section limits are also presented using simplified models with new particles decaying to an undetected particle and one or two jets