Correction: Impacts of a sugar sweetened beverage tax on body mass index and obesity in Thailand: A modelling study

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250841.]

International trade, dietary change, and cardiovascular disease health outcomes: Import tariff reform using an integrated macroeconomic, environmental and health modelling framework for Thailand

United Nations (UN) member states have, since 2011, worked to address the emerging global NCD crisis, but progress has, so far, been insufficient. Food trade policy is recognised to have the potential to impact certain major diet-related health and environmental outcomes. We study the potential for using import tariff protection as a health and environmental policy instrument. Specifically, we apply a rigorous and consistent Macroeconomic-Environmental-Demographic-health (MED-health) simulation model framework to study fiscal food policy import tariffs and dietary change in Thailand over the future 20 year period 2016-2035. We find that the existing Thai tariff structure, by lowering imports, lowers agricultural Land Use Change (LUC)-related GHG emissions and protects against cholesterol-related cardiovascular disease (CVD). This confirms previous evidence that food trade, measured by import shares of food expenditures and caloric intakes, is correlated with unhealthy eating and adverse health outcomes among importing country populations. A continued drive towards tariff liberalization and economic efficiency in Thailand may therefore come at the expense of reduced health and environmental sustainability of food consumption and production systems. Due to large efficiency losses, the existing tariff structure is, however, not cost-effective as an environmental or health policy instrument. However, additional simulations confirm that stylized 30% food sector import tariffs generally improve nutritional, clinical health, demographic, and environmental indicators across the board. We also find that diet-related health improvements can go hand-in-hand with increased Saturated Fatty Acid (SFA) intakes. Despite limited cost-effectiveness, policy makers from Thailand and abroad, including WHO, would therefore be well advised to consider targeted fiscal food policy tariffs as a potential intervention to maintain combined health and environmental sustainability, and to reconsider the specification of WHO dietary guidelines with their focus on SFA intake (rather than composition of fatty acid intake) targets

Palm oil and dietary change: Application of an integrated macroeconomic, environmental, demographic, and health modelling framework for Thailand

Palm oil is a cooking oil and food ingredient in widespread use in the global food system. However, as a highly saturated fat, palm oil consumption has been associated with negative effects on cardiovascular health, while large scale oil palm production has been linked to deforestation. We construct an innovative fully integrated Macroeconomic-Environmental-Demographic-health (MED-health) model to undertake integrated health, environmental, and economic analyses of palm oil consumption and oil palm production in Thailand over the coming 20 years (2016–2035). In order to put a health and fiscal food policy perspective on policy priorities of future palm oil consumption growth, we model the implications of a 54% product-specific sales tax to achieve a halving of future energy intakes from palm cooking oil consumption. Total patient incidence and premature mortality from myocardial infarction and stroke decline by 0.03–0.16% and rural-urban equity in health and welfare improves in most regions. However, contrary to accepted wisdom, reduced oil palm production would not be environmentally beneficial in the Thailand case, since, once established, oil palms have favourable carbon sequestration characteristics compared to alternative uses of Thai cropland. The increased sales tax also provokes mixed economic impacts: While real GDP increases in a second-best Thai tax policy environment, relative consumption-to-investment price changes may reduce household welfare over extended periods unless accompanied by non-distortionary government compensation payments. Overall, our holistic approach demonstrates that product-specific fiscal food policy taxes may involve important trade-offs between nutrition, health, the economy, and the environment

Risk Factors for Overweight and Obesity among Thai Adults: Results of the National Thai Food Consumption Survey

We evaluated the associations between overweight and obesity and socio-economic status (SES), behavioral factors, and dietary intake in Thai adults. A nationally representative sample of 6,445 Thais adults (18-70 years) was surveyed during 2004-2005. Information including demographics, SES characteristics, dietary intake, and anthropometrics were obtained. Overall, 35.0% of men, and 44.9% of women were overweight or obese (BMI ≥ 23 kg/m2) using the Asian cut-points. Regression models demonstrated that age was positively associated with being overweight in both genders. In gender-stratified analyses, male respondents who were older, lived in urban areas, had higher annual household income, and did not smoke were more likely to be classified as overweight and obese. Women who were older, had higher education, were not in a marriage-like relationship and were in semi-professional occupation were at greater risk for being overweight and obese. High carbohydrate and protein intake were found to be positively associated with BMI whereas the frequent use of dairy foods was found to be negatively associated with BMI among men. The present study found that SES factors are associated with being classified as overweight and obese in Thai adults, but associations were different between genders. Health promotion strategies regarding obesity and its related co-morbidity are necessary

Effect of urbanization on bone mineral density: A Thai epidemiological study

BACKGROUND: The incidence of fractures in rural populations is lower than in urban populations, although the reason for this difference is unclear. This cross-sectional study was designed to examine the difference in bone mineral density (BMD), a primary predictor of fracture risk, between urban and rural Thai populations. METHODS: Femoral neck and lumbar spine BMD was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (GE Lunar, Madison, WI) in 411 urban and 436 rural subjects (340 men and 507 women), aged between 20 and 84 years. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated from weight and height. RESULTS: After adjusting for age and body weight in an analysis of covariance model, femoral neck BMD in rural men and women was significantly higher than those in urban men and women (P < 0.001), but the difference was not observed at the lumbar spine. After stratifying by sex, age group, and BMI category, the urban-rural difference in femoral neck BMD became more pronounced in men and women aged <50 years and with BMI ≥ 25 kg/m(2). CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that femoral neck BMD in rural men and women was higher than their counterparts in urban areas. This difference could potentially explain part of the urban-rural difference in fracture incidence

Realistic Food-Based Approaches Alone May Not Ensure Dietary Adequacy for Women and Young Children in South-East Asia.

Objectives Micronutrient deficiencies, in southeast Asia (SE Asia), remain a public health challenge. We evaluated whether promoting the consumption of locally available nutritious foods, which is a low-risk micronutrient intervention, alone can ensure dietary adequacy, for women of reproductive age and 6-23 m old children. Methods Representative dietary data from Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Vietnam were analysed using linear programming analysis to identify nutrients that are likely low in personal food environments (problem nutrients), and to formulate food-based recommendations (FBRs) for three to six target populations per country. Results The number of problem nutrients ranged from zero for 12-23 m olds in Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam to six for pregnant women in Cambodia. The FBRs selected for each target population, if adopted, would ensure a low percentage of the population was at risk of inadequate intakes for five to ten micronutrients, depending on the country and target population. Of the 11 micronutrients modelled, requirements for iron, calcium and folate were most difficult to meet (≥ 10 of the 24 target populations), using FBRs alone. The number of individual FBRs selected per set, for each target population, ranged from three to eight; and often included meat, fish or eggs, liver/organ meats, vegetables and fruits. Conclusions for practice Intervention strategies need to increase access to nutritious foods, including products fortified with micronutrients, in SE Asia, when aiming to ensure dietary adequacy for most individuals in the population

Children’s and adolescents’ rising animal-source food intakes in 1990–2018 were impacted by age, region, parental education and urbanicity

Animal-source foods (ASF) provide nutrition for children and adolescents’ physical and cognitive development. Here, we use data from the Global Dietary Database and Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify global, regional and national ASF intakes between 1990 and 2018 by age group across 185 countries, representing 93% of the world’s child population. Mean ASF intake was 1.9 servings per day, representing 16% of children consuming at least three daily servings. Intake was similar between boys and girls, but higher among urban children with educated parents. Consumption varied by age from 0.6 at <1 year to 2.5 servings per day at 15–19 years. Between 1990 and 2018, mean ASF intake increased by 0.5 servings per week, with increases in all regions except sub-Saharan Africa. In 2018, total ASF consumption was highest in Russia, Brazil, Mexico and Turkey, and lowest in Uganda, India, Kenya and Bangladesh. These findings can inform policy to address malnutrition through targeted ASF consumption programmes.publishedVersio

Incident type 2 diabetes attributable to suboptimal diet in 184 countries

The global burden of diet-attributable type 2 diabetes (T2D) is not well established. This risk assessment model estimated T2D incidence among adults attributable to direct and body weight-mediated effects of 11 dietary factors in 184 countries in 1990 and 2018. In 2018, suboptimal intake of these dietary factors was estimated to be attributable to 14.1 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 13.8–14.4 million) incident T2D cases, representing 70.3% (68.8–71.8%) of new cases globally. Largest T2D burdens were attributable to insufficient whole-grain intake (26.1% (25.0–27.1%)), excess refined rice and wheat intake (24.6% (22.3–27.2%)) and excess processed meat intake (20.3% (18.3–23.5%)). Across regions, highest proportional burdens were in central and eastern Europe and central Asia (85.6% (83.4–87.7%)) and Latin America and the Caribbean (81.8% (80.1–83.4%)); and lowest proportional burdens were in South Asia (55.4% (52.1–60.7%)). Proportions of diet-attributable T2D were generally larger in men than in women and were inversely correlated with age. Diet-attributable T2D was generally larger among urban versus rural residents and higher versus lower educated individuals, except in high-income countries, central and eastern Europe and central Asia, where burdens were larger in rural residents and in lower educated individuals. Compared with 1990, global diet-attributable T2D increased by 2.6 absolute percentage points (8.6 million more cases) in 2018, with variation in these trends by world region and dietary factor. These findings inform nutritional priorities and clinical and public health planning to improve dietary quality and reduce T2D globally.publishedVersio

Evidence on the magnitude of the economic, health and population effects of palm cooking oil consumption: an integrated modelling approach with Thailand as a case study

BACKGROUND: Palm oil’s high yields, consequent low cost and highly versatile properties as a cooking oil and food ingredient have resulted in its thorough infiltration of the food sector in some countries. Longitudinal studies have associated palm oil’s high saturated fatty acid content with non-communicable disease, but neither the economic or disease burdens have been assessed previously. // METHODS: This novel palm oil-focussed disease burden assessment employs a fully integrated health, macroeconomic and demographic Computable General Equilibrium Model for Thailand with nine regional (urban/rural) households. Nutritional changes from food consumption are endogenously translated into health (myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke) and population outcomes and are fed back into the macroeconomic model as health and caregiver-related productive labour supply effects and healthcare costs to generate holistic 2016–2035 burden estimates. Model scenarios mirror the replacement of palm cooking oil with other dietary oils and are compared with simulated total Thai health and macroeconomic burdens for MI and stroke. // RESULTS: Replacing consumption of palm cooking oil with other dietary oils could reduce MI/stroke incident cases by 8280/2639 and cumulative deaths by 4683/894 over 20 years, removing approximately 0.5% of the total Thai burden of MI/stroke. This palm cooking oil replacement would reduce consumption shares of saturated/monounsaturated fatty acids in Thai household consumption by 6.5%/3% and increase polyunsaturated fatty acid consumption shares by 14%, yielding a 1.74% decrease in the population-wide total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio after 20 years. The macroeconomic burden that would be removed is US$308mn, approximately 0.44% of the total burden of MI/stroke on Thailand’s economy or 0.003% of cumulative 20-year GDP. Bangkok and Central region households benefit most from removal of disease burdens. // CONCLUSIONS: Simulations indicate that consumption of palm cooking oil, rather than other dietary oils, imposes a negative health burden (MI and stroke) and associated economic burden on a high consuming country, such as Thailand. Integrated sectoral model frameworks to assess these burdens are possible, and burden estimates from our simulated direct replacement of palm cooking oil indicate that using these frameworks both for broader analyses of dietary palm oil use and total burden analyses of other diseases may also be beneficial

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe