Estimación del precio marginal del sistema eléctrico colombiano: una mirada desde la organización industrial

El artículo tiene dos principales objetivos. El primero es construir un modelo de Cournot que simule el comportamiento estratégico de las empresas generadoras líderes del mercado eléctrico colombiano, usando el Precio Marginal del Sistema (PMS) como variable estratégica para determinar las cantidades optimas a ofertar en el mercado spot. El segundo es usar las cantidades estimadas con el modelo de Cournot para construir variables de organización industrial (Índice de Demanda Residual y el Índice de Herfindahl e Hirschman) y con ellas estimar modelos vectoriales autorregresivos (VAR) que permitan estimar el PMS y hacer análisis de impulso respuesta. Los modelos se estiman para la serie diaria desde junio del 2010 hasta noviembre del mismo año. Los resultados muestran que la capacidad de almacenamiento de las empresas hidráulicas permite un mayor comportamiento estratégico que el de una empresa térmica cuando la demanda es baja, mientras que las térmicas son más estratégicas cuando la demanda es alta dado que los recursos de generación hidráulica se ven reducidos. Además se encuentra que los choques sobre los cambios en la capacidad de maniobra del oligopolio y en la concentración del mercado, se reflejan en un comportamiento fluctuante sobre el crecimiento del PMS, lo que se puede interpretar como una reacción de la estrategia de las empresas ante un cambio en las circunstancias de organización del mercado.This paper has two important goals. The first one is to build a Cournot model that illustrate the strategic behavior of the leader energy generators of the Colombian energy market, using the spot price as a strategic variable to estimate the optimal quantities of the short term energy market. The second goal is to use the quantities estimated to build industrial organizational variables, and with them estimate the spot price using VAR models, that allow an impulse response analysis. A daily series is used for the estimation, which it goes from June of 2010 until November of the same year. The results showed that the storage capacity of the hydraulic companies give them a higher strategic behavior that thermal companies when the demand level is low, but the opposite happens when the demand level is high. It was found that a random shock over the residual demand of the oligopoly and the concentration ratio of the market structure, are reflected in a fluctuated behavior of the spot energy price, this effect can be read as a reaction of the companies to the new circumstances of the market condition

Estimación del precio marginal del sistema eléctrico colombiano: una mirada desde la organización industrial

We analyze the behavior of spot prices in the Colombian wholesale power market, using a series of models derived from industrial organization theory -- We first create a Cournot-based model that simulates the strategic behavior of the market-leader power generators, which we use to estimate two industrial organization variables, the Index of Residual Demand and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) -- We use these variables to create VAR models that estimate spot prices and power market impulse-response relationships -- The results from these models show that hydroelectric generators can use their water storage capability strategically to affect off-peak prices primarily, while the thermal generators can manage their capacity strategically to affect on-peak prices -- In addition, shocks to the Index of Residual Capacity and to the HHI cause spot price fluctuations, which can be interpreted as the generators´ strategic response to these shocksConstruimos un modelo de Cournot para simular el comportamiento estratégico de las empresas generadoras líderes del mercado eléctrico colombiano --Usamos las cantidades estimadas con este modelo para construir dos variables de organización industrial: el índice de demanda residual y el índice de Herfindahl e Hirschman (HHI) -- Con ellas estimamos modelos vectoriales autorregresivos (VAR) que permitan estimar el precio en bolsa (PMS) y hacer análisis impulso-respuesta -- Los resultados muestran que la capacidad de almacenamiento de las empresas hidráulicas permite un mayor comportamiento estratégico que las térmicas en periodos de demanda baja, mientras que las térmicas son más estratégicas en periodos de demanda alta -- Además los choques sobre los cambios en la demanda residual y en la concentración del mercado se reflejan en un comportamiento fluctuante sobre el crecimiento del PMS, lo que se puede interpretar como una reacción de la estrategia de las empresas ante un cambio en las circunstancias del mercad

Discovery of Therapeutic Approaches for Polyglutamine Diseases: A Summary of Recent Efforts

Polyglutamine (PolyQ) diseases are a group of neurodegenerative disorders caused by the expansion of cytosine-adenine-guanine (CAG) trinucleotide repeats in the coding region of specific genes. This leads to the production of pathogenic proteins containing critically expanded tracts of glutamines. Although polyQ diseases are individually rare, the fact that these nine diseases are irreversibly progressive over 10 to 30 years, severely impairing and ultimately fatal, usually implicating the full-time patient support by a caregiver for long time periods, makes their economic and social impact quite significant. This has led several researchers worldwide to investigate the pathogenic mechanism(s) and therapeutic strategies for polyQ diseases. Although research in the field has grown notably in the last decades, we are still far from having an effective treatment to offer patients, and the decision of which compounds should be translated to the clinics may be very challenging. In this review, we provide a comprehensive and critical overview of the most recent drug discovery efforts in the field of polyQ diseases, including the most relevant findings emerging from two different types of approaches-hypothesis-based candidate molecule testing and hypothesis-free unbiased drug screenings. We hereby summarize and reflect on the preclinical studies as well as all the clinical trials performed to date, aiming to provide a useful framework for increasingly successful future drug discovery and development efforts.Project ON.2 SR&TD Integrated Program (NORTE-07-0124-FEDER-000021), co-funded by North Portugal Regional Operational Program (ON.2-O Novo Norte), under the National Strategic Reference Framework, through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and also supported by Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia through the project POCI-01-0145-FEDER-016818 (PTDC/NEU-NMC/3648/2014)info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

An Analysis of Colombian Power Market Price Behavior from an Industrial Organization Perspective

We analyze the behavior of spot prices in the Colombian wholesale power market, using a series of models derived from industrial organization theory.  We first create a Cournot-based model that simulates the strategic behavior of the market-leader power generators, which we use to estimate two industrial organization variables, the Index of Residual Demand and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI).  We use these variables to create VAR models that estimate spot prices and power market impulse-response relationships.  The results from these models show that hydroelectric generators can use their water storage capability strategically to affect off-peak prices primarily, while the thermal generators can manage their capacity strategically to affect on-peak prices.  In addition, shocks to the Index of Residual Capacity and to the HHI cause spot price fluctuations, which can be interpreted as the generators´ strategic response to these shocks