Demographic change and regional competitiveness: The effects of immigration and ageing

The demographic profile of a region is usually seen as a slowly changing background phenomenon in the analysis of regional competitiveness and regional growth. However, regional demographic change can have a significant impact on regional competitiveness and such change is often more rapid and profound than at the national level. In turn, regional population size, growth, composition and distribution are endogenous to regional economic development. This paper focuses on the impact of population ageing and immigration on aspects of regional competitiveness such as innovation, entrepreneurship and productivity. Immigration and ageing trends have generated huge separate literatures but it is argued here that it is fruitful to consider these trends jointly. Theoretically, there are many channels through which immigration and population ageing can affect regional competitiveness. There is empirical evidence that population ageing reduces regional competitiveness, while immigration – particularly of entrepreneurs and highly skilled workers to metropolitan areas – enhances competitiveness. Much of the available literature is based on smallscale case studies and rigorous econometric research on the impact of demographic change at the regional level is still remarkably rare. Some directions for further research are suggested

Trans-Tasman Migration, Transnationalism and Economic Development in Australasia

This paper focuses on migration between Australia and New Zealand, which has exhibited a strong, but cyclical, net movement towards Australia since the late 1960s. A long-term historical perspective is taken. Trans-Tasman migration is also compared with inter-island migration within New Zealand. It is argued that differential economic development, driven by forces of globalisation, agglomeration and technological change, has been primarily responsible for the long-run changes in the distribution of population across the regions of Australasia. Asynchronous business cycles, demographic dynamics, perceptions, return migration and the high international mobility of New Zealanders (of whom one quarter of those aged 40-64 have lived abroad for a year or longer) are responsible for the short-run fluctuations. However, permanent and long-term migration is only a small fraction of total trans-Tasman population movement. Moreover, trans-Tasman migration has not offset New Zealand’s ability to recruit population through immigration. Over the last three decades, the outflow of half a million New Zealand citizens has been compensated by a net inflow of three-quarter million citizens from elsewhere. The number of New Zealanders in Australia is expected to continue to grow but the migration flows become increasingly diversified. One-third of the New Zealanders in Australia re-migrates within four years. Future trends will depend on New Zealand’s ability to boost productivity growth, the real cost of air travel, retirement migration and the impacts of climate change.Trans-Tasman migration, Australia, New Zealand, economic development

New Zealand research on the economic impacts of immigration 2005-2010: Synthesis and research agenda

This paper brings together the key research findings of some 20 projects conducted in New Zealand on the economic impacts of immigration from 2005 to 2010. Besides providing a synthesis of this research, knowledge gaps that could be addressed in future research are also identified. The report concludes that immigration has made a positive contribution to economic outcomes in New Zealand and that fears for negative economic impacts such as net fiscal costs, lower wages, and increasing unemployment find very little support in the available empirical evidence. Moreover, the economic integration of immigrants is broadly successful. Once migrants are in New Zealand for more than 10–15 years, their labour market outcomes are predominantly determined by the same success factors as those for the New Zealand born. Migration increases trade and tourism, both inbound and outbound. The net fiscal impact of immigration is positive. Findings on impacts on housing and on technological change are less conclusive. Simulations over a 15-year period with a CGE model suggest that even without additional technological change, additional immigration raises gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, albeit only modestly. Conversely, without net immigration, GDP per capita would be less. The CGE model simulations also suggest that changes in immigration policy and changes in the New Zealand economy over the last quarter century now yield greater economic benefits from immigration than in the past. Future research should focus on: the path of adjustment of the economy over time, following a change in the level of immigration; physical and human capital investment in the economy triggered by immigration; the economic consequences of greater diversity; and differences in impacts between temporary and long-term migration

Measuring the economic impact of immigration: A scoping paper

This discussion paper has three objectives. Firstly, it provides a brief review of recent international empirical research on the labour market impact of immigration. The synthesis of this literature is facilitated by reference to the results from a recent meta-analysis of the impact of immigration on wages. Secondly, the paper briefly reviews international research on other dimensions of the economic impact of immigration, namely productivity and technical change, trade and international relations, the fiscal impact, socio-economic impacts and externalities, and economy-wide (general equilibrium) effects. The approach adopted in considering each of these impacts is to identify the main issues associated with the particular impact, followed by key international references and, where available, New Zealand references on the particular type of impact. The gaps in NZ research are then identified along with any difficulties with the data available for replicating the international studies in New Zealand. Thirdly, the paper seeks to identify feasible (in terms of data availability) suggestions for further research that would add to our knowledge of the economic impact of immigration in New Zealand

The importance of heterogeneity when examining immigrant education-occupation mismatch: evidence from New Zealand

Many immigrants are overqualified in their first job after arrival in the host country. Education-occupation mismatch can affect the economic integration of immigrants and the returns to education and experience. The extent of this problem has been measured in recent years by means of micro level data in Australia, North America and Europe. However, these papers have typically ignored the importance of allowing for heterogeneity, in particular by qualification level and years in the destination country. In this paper, we use data from the 1996, 2001 and 2006 New Zealand censuses to examine differences between each migrant’s actual years of education and the estimated typical years of education in the narrowly defined occupation in which they work. We find that migrants living in New Zealand for less than 5 years are on average overeducated, while earlier migrants are on average undereducated. However, once accounting for heterogeneity, we find that both overeducated and undereducated migrants become, with increasing years of residence in New Zealand, more similar to comparable native born. Convergence from overeducation is stronger than from undereducation

A stochastic sub-national population projection methodology with an application to the Waikato region of New Zealand

In this paper we use a stochastic population projection methodology at the sub-national level as an alternative to the conventional deterministic cohort-component method. We briefly evaluate the accuracy of previous deterministic projections and find that there is a tendency for these to be conservative: under-projecting fast growing populations and over-projecting slow growing ones. We generate probabilistic population projections for five demographically distinct administrative areas within the Waikato region of New Zealand, namely Hamilton City, Franklin District, Thames-Coromandel District, Otorohanga District and South Waikato District. Although spatial interaction between the areas is not taken into account in the current version of the methodology, a consistent set of cross-regional assumptions is used. The results are compared to official sub-national deterministic projections. The accuracy of sub-national population projections is in New Zealand strongly affected by the instability of migration as a component of population change. Unlike the standard cohort-component methodology, in which net migration levels are projected, the key parameters of our stochastic methodology are age-gender-area specific net migration rates. The projected range of rates of population growth is wider for smaller regions and/or regions more strongly affected by net migration. Generally, the identified and modelled uncertainty makes the traditional ‘mid range’ scenario of sub-national population projections of limited use for policy analysis or planning beyond a relatively short projection horizon. Directions for further development of a stochastic sub-national projection methodology are suggested

Changes in social security eligibility and the international mobility of New Zealand citizens in Australia

This paper is concerned with the international mobility of New Zealanders who migrate to Australia. One in ten New Zealand citizens lives in Australia and their settlement and subsequent mobility is important from demographic, socio-economic and policy perspectives in both countries. Using a unique longitudinal dataset on New Zealand citizens arriving for a stay of 12 months or longer between 1 August 1999 and 31 July 2002, we track all subsequent moves of these migrants out of and back into Australia, up to July 2005. This allows us to assess the impact of the removal of labour market-related social security eligibility and some other policy changes affecting New Zealand migrants to Australia, implemented between February and June 2001. United Kingdom migrants to Australia, who were not affected by the policy changes, provide a ‘control group’. Using hazard models, we find that the policy changes increased the probability of remigration from Australia among those who had intended to settle permanently. Competing risk models suggested no difference between the impact of the policy changes on onward or return moves. Settlers arriving after the policy changes spend less time Australia and make more trips away than earlier migrants

Changes in social security eligibility and the international mobility of New Zealand citizens in Australia

This paper is concerned with the international mobility of New Zealanders who migrate to Australia. One in ten New Zealand citizens lives in Australia and their settlement and subsequent mobility is important from demographic, socio-economic and policy perspectives in both countries. Using a unique longitudinal dataset on New Zealand citizens arriving for a stay of 12 months or longer between 1 August 1999 and 31 July 2002, we track all subsequent moves of these migrants out of and back into Australia, up to July 2005. This allows us to assess the impact of the removal of labour market-related social security eligibility and some other policy changes affecting New Zealand migrants to Australia, implemented between February and June 2001. United Kingdom migrants to Australia, who were not affected by the policy changes, provide a "control group". Using hazard models, we find that the policy changes increased the probability of remigration from Australia among those who had intended to settle permanently. Competing risk models suggested no difference between the impact of the policy changes on onward or return moves. Settlers arriving after the policy changes spend less time Australia and make more trips away than earlier migrants.International Migration, International Travel, New Zealand, Australia,United Kingdom, Social Welfare, Immigration Policy, Selectivity