Approximations for time-dependent distributions in Markovian fluid models

In this paper we study the distribution of the level at time $\theta$ of Markovian fluid queues and Markovian continuous time random walks, the maximum (and minimum) level over $[0,\theta]$, and their joint distributions. We approximate $\theta$ by a random variable $T$ with Erlang distribution and we use an alternative way, with respect to the usual Laplace transform approach, to compute the distributions. We present probabilistic interpretation of the equations and provide a numerical illustration

Variational Bayes model averaging for graphon functions and motif frequencies inference in W-graph models

W-graph refers to a general class of random graph models that can be seen as a random graph limit. It is characterized by both its graphon function and its motif frequencies. In this paper, relying on an existing variational Bayes algorithm for the stochastic block models along with the corresponding weights for model averaging, we derive an estimate of the graphon function as an average of stochastic block models with increasing number of blocks. In the same framework, we derive the variational posterior frequency of any motif. A simulation study and an illustration on a social network complete our work

Perturbation analysis of Markov modulated fluid models

We consider perturbations of positive recurrent Markov modulated fluid models. In addition to the infinitesimal generator of the phases, we also perturb the rate matrix, and analyze the effect of those perturbations on the matrix of first return probabilities to the initial level. Our main contribution is the construction of a substitute for the matrix of first return probabilities, which enables us to analyze the effect of the perturbation under consideration

Graphs in machine learning: an introduction

Graphs are commonly used to characterise interactions between objects of interest. Because they are based on a straightforward formalism, they are used in many scientific fields from computer science to historical sciences. In this paper, we give an introduction to some methods relying on graphs for learning. This includes both unsupervised and supervised methods. Unsupervised learning algorithms usually aim at visualising graphs in latent spaces and/or clustering the nodes. Both focus on extracting knowledge from graph topologies. While most existing techniques are only applicable to static graphs, where edges do not evolve through time, recent developments have shown that they could be extended to deal with evolving networks. In a supervised context, one generally aims at inferring labels or numerical values attached to nodes using both the graph and, when they are available, node characteristics. Balancing the two sources of information can be challenging, especially as they can disagree locally or globally. In both contexts, supervised and un-supervised, data can be relational (augmented with one or several global graphs) as described above, or graph valued. In this latter case, each object of interest is given as a full graph (possibly completed by other characteristics). In this context, natural tasks include graph clustering (as in producing clusters of graphs rather than clusters of nodes in a single graph), graph classification, etc. 1 Real networks One of the first practical studies on graphs can be dated back to the original work of Moreno [51] in the 30s. Since then, there has been a growing interest in graph analysis associated with strong developments in the modelling and the processing of these data. Graphs are now used in many scientific fields. In Biology [54, 2, 7], for instance, metabolic networks can describe pathways of biochemical reactions [41], while in social sciences networks are used to represent relation ties between actors [66, 56, 36, 34]. Other examples include powergrids [71] and the web [75]. Recently, networks have also been considered in other areas such as geography [22] and history [59, 39]. In machine learning, networks are seen as powerful tools to model problems in order to extract information from data and for prediction purposes. This is the object of this paper. For more complete surveys, we refer to [28, 62, 49, 45]. In this section, we introduce notations and highlight properties shared by most real networks. In Section 2, we then consider methods aiming at extracting information from a unique network. We will particularly focus on clustering methods where the goal is to find clusters of vertices. Finally, in Section 3, techniques that take a series of networks into account, where each network i

The morphing of fluid queues into Markov-modulated Brownian motion

Ramaswami showed recently that standard Brownian motion arises as the limit of a family of Markov-modulated linear fluid processes. We pursue this analysis with a fluid approximation for Markov-modulated Brownian motion. Furthermore, we prove that the stationary distribution of a Markov-modulated Brownian motion reflected at zero is the limit from the well-analyzed stationary distribution of approximating linear fluid processes. Key matrices in the limiting stationary distribution are shown to be solutions of a new quadratic equation, and we describe how this equation can be efficiently solved. Our results open the way to the analysis of more complex Markov-modulated processes.Comment: 20 page; the material on p7 (version 1) has been removed, and pp.8-9 replaced by Theorem 2.7 and its short proo

Poisson's equation for discrete-time quasi-birth-and-death processes

We consider Poisson's equation for quasi-birth-and-death processes (QBDs) and we exploit the special transition structure of QBDs to obtain its solutions in two different forms. One is based on a decomposition through first passage times to lower levels, the other is based on a recursive expression for the deviation matrix. We revisit the link between a solution of Poisson's equation and perturbation analysis and we show that it applies to QBDs. We conclude with the PH/M/1 queue as an illustrative example, and we measure the sensitivity of the expected queue size to the initial value

Extinction probabilities of branching processes with countably infinitely many types

We present two iterative methods for computing the global and partial extinction probability vectors for Galton-Watson processes with countably infinitely many types. The probabilistic interpretation of these methods involves truncated Galton-Watson processes with finite sets of types and modified progeny generating functions. In addition, we discuss the connection of the convergence norm of the mean progeny matrix with extinction criteria. Finally, we give a sufficient condition for a population to become extinct almost surely even though its population size explodes on the average, which is impossible in a branching process with finitely many types. We conclude with some numerical illustrations for our algorithmic methods

Brokers vs. Retailers: Evidence from the French Imports Industry of Fresh Produce.

There is little discussion in the literature about trade intermediaries because data is rare. Using very original data, our article sheds light on the behavior of trade intermediaries when importing fresh fruit and vegetables in France. To do so, we distinguish among direct and indirect imports respectively operated through brokers or retailers. We then investigate the impact of country level data on the share of indirect/direct flows of imports by country of origin at the 8-digit level that enter the french market. We show that brokers are more likely to operate in context when fixed and variable costs to trade are high whereas retailers are sensitive to tariffs and product sensitivity.Agribusiness, International Relations/Trade, Q17,