The Order of Integration for Quarterly Macroeconomic Time series: a Simple Testing Strategy

Besides introducing a simple and intuitive definition for the order of integration of quarterly time series, this paper also presents a simple testing strategy to determine that order for the case of macroeconomic data. A simulation study shows that much more attention should be devoted to the practical issue of selecting the maximum admissible order of integration. In fact, it is shown that when that order is too high, one may get (spurious) evidence for an excessive number of unit roots, resulting in an overdifferenced series.

Deterministic Seasonality in Dickey-Fuller Tests: Should We Care?

This paper investigates the properties of Dickey-Fuller tests for seasonally unadjusted quarterly data when deterministic seasonality is present but it is neglected in the test regression. While for the random walk case the answer is straightforward, an extensive Monte Carlo study has to be performed for more realistic processes and testing strategies. The most important conclusion is that the common perception that deterministic seasonality has nothing to do with the long-run properties of the data is incorrect. Further numerical evidence on the shortcomings of the general-to-specific t-sig lag selection method is also presented.unit root; Dickey-Fuller tests; similar tests; seasonality; Monte Carlo

The Behavior of HEGY Tests for Quarterly Time Series with Seasonal Mean Shifts

This paper studies the behavior of the HEGY statistics for quarterly data, for seasonal autoregressive unit roots, when the analyzed time series is deterministic seasonal stationary but exhibits a change in the seasonal pattern. As a by-product we analyze also the HEGY test for the nonseasonal unit root, the data generation process being trend stationary too. Our results show that when the break magnitudes are finite the HEGY test statistics are not asymptotically biased towards the non-rejection of the seasonal and nonseasonal unit root hypotheses. However, the finite sample power properties may be substancially affected, the behavior of the tests depending on the type of the break. Hence, our results are also useful to understand and to predict this behavior under several circumstances.seasonality; unit roots; strctural breaks; HEGY tests

Short and long run tests of the expectations hypothesis: the Portuguese case

The purpose of this paper is to test both short- and long-run implications of the (rational) expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates using Portuguese data for the interbank money market. The results support only a very weak, long-run or "asymptotic" version of the hypothesis, and broadly agree with previous (but separate) evidence for other countries. Empirical evidence supports the cointegration of Portuguese rates and the "puzzle" well known in the literature: although its forecasts of future short-term rates are in the correct direction, the spread between longer and shorter rates fails to forecast future longer rates. Further short-run implications of the hypothesis in terms of the predictive ability of the spread are also clearly rejected, even for the more stable period which emerged in the middle nineties.Term structure; Expectations hypothesis; Hypothesis testing; Structural breaks; Portugal

Finite sample effects of pure seasonal mean shifts on Dickey-Fuller tests

In this paper it is demonstrated by simulation that, contrary to a widely held belief, pure seasonal mean shifts - i.e., seasonal structural breaks which affect only the deterministic seasonal cycle - really do matter for Dickey-Fuller long-run unit root tests

Finite sample effects of pure seasonal mean shifts on Dickey-Fuller tests

In this paper it is demonstrated by simulation that, contrary to a widely held belief, pure seasonal mean shifts - i.e., seasonal structural breaks which affect only the deterministic seasonal cycle - really do matter for Dickey-Fuller long-run unit root tests

Short and long run tests of the expectations hypothesis: the Portuguese case

The purpose of this paper is to test both short- and long-run implications of the (rational) expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates using Portuguese data for the interbank money market. The results support only a very weak, long-run or "asymptotic" version of the hypothesis, and broadly agree with previous (but separate) evidence for other countries. Empirical evidence supports the cointegration of Portuguese rates and the "puzzle" well known in the literature: although its forecasts of future short-term rates are in the correct direction, the spread between longer and shorter rates fails to forecast future longer rates. Further short-run implications of the hypothesis in terms of the predictive ability of the spread are also clearly rejected, even for the more stable period which emerged in the middle nineties

Short and long run tests of the expectations hypothesis: the Portuguese case

The purpose of this paper is to test both short- and long-run implications of the (rational) expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates using Portuguese data for the interbank money market. The results support only a very weak, long-run or "asymptotic" version of the hypothesis, and broadly agree with previous (but separate) evidence for other countries. Empirical evidence supports the cointegration of Portuguese rates and the "puzzle" well known in the literature: although its forecasts of future short-term rates are in the correct direction, the spread between longer and shorter rates fails to forecast future longer rates. Further short-run implications of the hypothesis in terms of the predictive ability of the spread are also clearly rejected, even for the more stable period which emerged in the middle nineties

Evidence for Reductive Genome Evolution and Lateral Acquisition of Virulence Functions in Two Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis Strains

Ruiz JC, D'Afonseca V, Silva A, et al. Evidence for Reductive Genome Evolution and Lateral Acquisition of Virulence Functions in Two Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis Strains. PLoS ONE. 2011;6(4): e18551.Background: Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis, a Gram-positive, facultative intracellular pathogen, is the etiologic agent of the disease known as caseous lymphadenitis (CL). CL mainly affects small ruminants, such as goats and sheep; it also causes infections in humans, though rarely. This species is distributed worldwide, but it has the most serious economic impact in Oceania, Africa and South America. Although C. pseudotuberculosis causes major health and productivity problems for livestock, little is known about the molecular basis of its pathogenicity. Methodology and Findings: We characterized two C. pseudotuberculosis genomes (Cp1002, isolated from goats; and CpC231, isolated from sheep). Analysis of the predicted genomes showed high similarity in genomic architecture, gene content and genetic order. When C. pseudotuberculosis was compared with other Corynebacterium species, it became evident that this pathogenic species has lost numerous genes, resulting in one of the smallest genomes in the genus. Other differences that could be part of the adaptation to pathogenicity include a lower GC content, of about 52%, and a reduced gene repertoire. The C. pseudotuberculosis genome also includes seven putative pathogenicity islands, which contain several classical virulence factors, including genes for fimbrial subunits, adhesion factors, iron uptake and secreted toxins. Additionally, all of the virulence factors in the islands have characteristics that indicate horizontal transfer. Conclusions: These particular genome characteristics of C. pseudotuberculosis, as well as its acquired virulence factors in pathogenicity islands, provide evidence of its lifestyle and of the pathogenicity pathways used by this pathogen in the infection process. All genomes cited in this study are available in the NCBI Genbank database (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/genbank/) under accession numbers CP001809 and CP001829

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe