Properties of highly clustered networks

We propose and solve exactly a model of a network that has both a tunable degree distribution and a tunable clustering coefficient. Among other things, our results indicate that increased clustering leads to a decrease in the size of the giant component of the network. We also study SIR-type epidemic processes within the model and find that clustering decreases the size of epidemics, but also decreases the epidemic threshold, making it easier for diseases to spread. In addition, clustering causes epidemics to saturate sooner, meaning that they infect a near-maximal fraction of the network for quite low transmission rates.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, 1 tabl

The spread of epidemic disease on networks

The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the so-called susceptible/infective/removed (SIR) models can be solved exactly on a wide variety of networks. In addition to the standard but unrealistic case of fixed infectiveness time and fixed and uncorrelated probability of transmission between all pairs of individuals, we solve cases in which times and probabilities are non-uniform and correlated. We also consider one simple case of an epidemic in a structured population, that of a sexually transmitted disease in a population divided into men and women. We confirm the correctness of our exact solutions with numerical simulations of SIR epidemics on networks.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figure

Temporal and spatial variations in nutrient stoichiometry and regulation of phytoplankton biomass in Hong Kong waters : influence of the Pearl River outflow and sewage inputs

Author Posting. © Elsevier B.V., 2008. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Marine Pollution Bulletin 57 (2008): 335-348, doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2008.01.020.In 2001, the Hong Kong government implemented the Harbor Area Treatment Scheme (HATS) under which 70% of the sewage that had been formerly discharged into Victoria Harbor is now collected and sent to Stonecutters Island Sewage Works where it receives chemically enhanced primary treatment (CEPT), and is then discharged into waters west of the Harbor. The relocation of the sewage discharge will possibly change the nutrient dynamics and phytoplankton biomass in this area. Therefore, there is a need to examine the factors that regulate phytoplankton growth in Hong Kong waters in order to understand future impacts. Based on a historic nutrient data set (1986-2001), a comparison of ambient nutrient ratios with the Redfield ratio (N:P:Si=16:1:16) showed clear spatial variations in the factors that regulate phytoplankton biomass along a west (estuary) to east (coastal/oceanic) transect through Hong Kong waters. Algal biomass was constrained by a combination of low light conditions, a rapid change in salinity, and strong turbulent mixing in western waters throughout the year. Potential stoichiometric Si limitation (up to 94% of the cases in winter) occurred in Victoria Harbor due to the contribution of sewage effluent with high N and P enrichment all year, except for summer when the frequency of stoichiometric Si limitation (48%) was the same as P, owing to the influence of the high Si in the Pearl River discharge. In the eastern waters, potential N limitation and N and P co-limitation occurred in autumn and winter respectively, because of the dominance of coastal/oceanic water with low nutrients and low N:P ratios. In contrast, potential Si limitation occurred in spring and a switch to potential N, P and Si limitation occurred in eastern waters in summer. In southern waters, there was a shift from P limitation (80%) in summer due to the influence of the N-rich Pearl River discharge, to N limitation (68%) in autumn, and to N and P co-limitation in winter due to the dominance of N-poor oceanic water from the oligotrophic South China Sea. Our results show clear temporal and spatial variations in the nutrient stoichiometry which indicates potential regulation of phytoplankton biomass in HK waters due to the combination of the seasonal exchange of the Pearl River discharge and oceanic water, sewage effluent inputs, and strong hydrodynamic mixing from SW monsoon winds in summer and the NE monsoon winds in winter.Financial support for this research was provided by the University Grants Council of Hong Kong AoE project (AoE/P-04/0401), and RGC project HKUST6478/05M. Support was also provided (to DMA) by U.S. National Science Foundation grants OCE-0402707 and OCE-0430724 and by NIEHS grant 1 P50-ES01274201

Measurement of the Charged Multiplicities in b, c and Light Quark Events from Z0 Decays

Average charged multiplicities have been measured separately in $b$, $c$ and light quark ($u,d,s$) events from $Z^0$ decays measured in the SLD experiment. Impact parameters of charged tracks were used to select enriched samples of $b$ and light quark events, and reconstructed charmed mesons were used to select $c$ quark events. We measured the charged multiplicities: $\bar{n}_{uds} = 20.21 \pm 0.10 (\rm{stat.})\pm 0.22(\rm{syst.})$, $\bar{n}_{c} = 21.28 \pm 0.46(\rm{stat.}) ^{+0.41}_{-0.36}(\rm{syst.})$ $\bar{n}_{b} = 23.14 \pm 0.10(\rm{stat.}) ^{+0.38}_{-0.37}(\rm{syst.})$, from which we derived the differences between the total average charged multiplicities of $c$ or $b$ quark events and light quark events: $\Delta \bar{n}_c = 1.07 \pm 0.47(\rm{stat.})^{+0.36}_{-0.30}(\rm{syst.})$ and $\Delta \bar{n}_b = 2.93 \pm 0.14(\rm{stat.})^{+0.30}_{-0.29}(\rm{syst.})$. We compared these measurements with those at lower center-of-mass energies and with perturbative QCD predictions. These combined results are in agreement with the QCD expectations and disfavor the hypothesis of flavor-independent fragmentation.Comment: 19 pages LaTex, 4 EPS figures, to appear in Physics Letters

Mixing patterns in networks

We study assortative mixing in networks, the tendency for vertices in networks to be connected to other vertices that are like (or unlike) them in some way. We consider mixing according to discrete characteristics such as language or race in social networks and scalar characteristics such as age. As a special example of the latter we consider mixing according to vertex degree, i.e., according to the number of connections vertices have to other vertices: do gregarious people tend to associate with other gregarious people? We propose a number of measures of assortative mixing appropriate to the various mixing types, and apply them to a variety of real-world networks, showing that assortative mixing is a pervasive phenomenon found in many networks. We also propose several models of assortatively mixed networks, both analytic ones based on generating function methods, and numerical ones based on Monte Carlo graph generation techniques. We use these models to probe the properties of networks as their level of assortativity is varied. In the particular case of mixing by degree, we find strong variation with assortativity in the connectivity of the network and in the resilience of the network to the removal of vertices.Comment: 14 pages, 2 tables, 4 figures, some additions and corrections in this versio

Modern temporal network theory: A colloquium

The power of any kind of network approach lies in the ability to simplify a complex system so that one can better understand its function as a whole. Sometimes it is beneficial, however, to include more information than in a simple graph of only nodes and links. Adding information about times of interactions can make predictions and mechanistic understanding more accurate. The drawback, however, is that there are not so many methods available, partly because temporal networks is a relatively young field, partly because it more difficult to develop such methods compared to for static networks. In this colloquium, we review the methods to analyze and model temporal networks and processes taking place on them, focusing mainly on the last three years. This includes the spreading of infectious disease, opinions, rumors, in social networks; information packets in computer networks; various types of signaling in biology, and more. We also discuss future directions.Comment: Final accepted versio

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation: Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation