Donor Retention in Online Crowdfunding Communities: A Case Study of DonorsChoose.org

Online crowdfunding platforms like DonorsChoose.org and Kickstarter allow specific projects to get funded by targeted contributions from a large number of people. Critical for the success of crowdfunding communities is recruitment and continued engagement of donors. With donor attrition rates above 70%, a significant challenge for online crowdfunding platforms as well as traditional offline non-profit organizations is the problem of donor retention. We present a large-scale study of millions of donors and donations on DonorsChoose.org, a crowdfunding platform for education projects. Studying an online crowdfunding platform allows for an unprecedented detailed view of how people direct their donations. We explore various factors impacting donor retention which allows us to identify different groups of donors and quantify their propensity to return for subsequent donations. We find that donors are more likely to return if they had a positive interaction with the receiver of the donation. We also show that this includes appropriate and timely recognition of their support as well as detailed communication of their impact. Finally, we discuss how our findings could inform steps to improve donor retention in crowdfunding communities and non-profit organizations.Comment: preprint version of WWW 2015 pape

The influence of banner advertisements on attention and memory: human faces with averted gaze can enhance advertising effectiveness

Research suggests that banner advertisements used in online marketing are often overlooked, especially when positioned horizontally on webpages. Such inattention invariably gives rise to an inability to remember advertising brands and messages, undermining the effectiveness of this marketing method. Recent interest has focused on whether human faces within banner advertisements can increase attention to the information they contain, since the gaze cues conveyed by faces can influence where observers look. We report an experiment that investigated the efficacy of faces located in banner advertisements to enhance the attentional processing and memorability of banner contents. We tracked participants’ eye movements when they examined webpages containing either bottom-right vertical banners or bottom-centre horizontal banners. We also manipulated facial information such that banners either contained no face, a face with mutual gaze or a face with averted gaze. We additionally assessed people’s memories for brands and advertising messages. Results indicated that relative to other conditions, the condition involving faces with averted gaze increased attention to the banner overall, as well as to the advertising text and product. Memorability of the brand and advertising message was also enhanced. Conversely, in the condition involving faces with mutual gaze, the focus of attention was localised more on the face region rather than on the text or product, weakening any memory benefits for the brand and advertising message. This detrimental impact of mutual gaze on attention to advertised products was especially marked for vertical banners. These results demonstrate that the inclusion of human faces with averted gaze in banner advertisements provides a promising means for marketers to increase the attention paid to such adverts, thereby enhancing memory for advertising information

Modeling Interdependent and Periodic Real-World Action Sequences

Mobile health applications, including those that track activities such as exercise, sleep, and diet, are becoming widely used. Accurately predicting human actions is essential for targeted recommendations that could improve our health and for personalization of these applications. However, making such predictions is extremely difficult due to the complexities of human behavior, which consists of a large number of potential actions that vary over time, depend on each other, and are periodic. Previous work has not jointly modeled these dynamics and has largely focused on item consumption patterns instead of broader types of behaviors such as eating, commuting or exercising. In this work, we develop a novel statistical model for Time-varying, Interdependent, and Periodic Action Sequences. Our approach is based on personalized, multivariate temporal point processes that model time-varying action propensities through a mixture of Gaussian intensities. Our model captures short-term and long-term periodic interdependencies between actions through Hawkes process-based self-excitations. We evaluate our approach on two activity logging datasets comprising 12 million actions taken by 20 thousand users over 17 months. We demonstrate that our approach allows us to make successful predictions of future user actions and their timing. Specifically, our model improves predictions of actions, and their timing, over existing methods across multiple datasets by up to 156%, and up to 37%, respectively. Performance improvements are particularly large for relatively rare and periodic actions such as walking and biking, improving over baselines by up to 256%. This demonstrates that explicit modeling of dependencies and periodicities in real-world behavior enables successful predictions of future actions, with implications for modeling human behavior, app personalization, and targeting of health interventions.Comment: Accepted at WWW 201

Modeling Individual Cyclic Variation in Human Behavior

Cycles are fundamental to human health and behavior. However, modeling cycles in time series data is challenging because in most cases the cycles are not labeled or directly observed and need to be inferred from multidimensional measurements taken over time. Here, we present CyHMMs, a cyclic hidden Markov model method for detecting and modeling cycles in a collection of multidimensional heterogeneous time series data. In contrast to previous cycle modeling methods, CyHMMs deal with a number of challenges encountered in modeling real-world cycles: they can model multivariate data with discrete and continuous dimensions; they explicitly model and are robust to missing data; and they can share information across individuals to model variation both within and between individual time series. Experiments on synthetic and real-world health-tracking data demonstrate that CyHMMs infer cycle lengths more accurately than existing methods, with 58% lower error on simulated data and 63% lower error on real-world data compared to the best-performing baseline. CyHMMs can also perform functions which baselines cannot: they can model the progression of individual features/symptoms over the course of the cycle, identify the most variable features, and cluster individual time series into groups with distinct characteristics. Applying CyHMMs to two real-world health-tracking datasets -- of menstrual cycle symptoms and physical activity tracking data -- yields important insights including which symptoms to expect at each point during the cycle. We also find that people fall into several groups with distinct cycle patterns, and that these groups differ along dimensions not provided to the model. For example, by modeling missing data in the menstrual cycles dataset, we are able to discover a medically relevant group of birth control users even though information on birth control is not given to the model.Comment: Accepted at WWW 201

Integration of linked open data in case-based reasoning systems

This paper discusses the opportunities of integrating Linked Open Data (LOD) resources into Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) systems. Upon the application domain travel medicine, we will exemplify how LOD can be used to fill three out of four knowledge containers a CBR system is based on. The paper also presents the applied techniques for the realization and demonstrates the performance gain of knowledge acquisition by the use of LOD

Goal-setting And Achievement In Activity Tracking Apps: A Case Study Of MyFitnessPal

Activity tracking apps often make use of goals as one of their core motivational tools. There are two critical components to this tool: setting a goal, and subsequently achieving that goal. Despite its crucial role in how a number of prominent self-tracking apps function, there has been relatively little investigation of the goal-setting and achievement aspects of self-tracking apps. Here we explore this issue, investigating a particular goal setting and achievement process that is extensive, recorded, and crucial for both the app and its users' success: weight loss goals in MyFitnessPal. We present a large-scale study of 1.4 million users and weight loss goals, allowing for an unprecedented detailed view of how people set and achieve their goals. We find that, even for difficult long-term goals, behavior within the first 7 days predicts those who ultimately achieve their goals, that is, those who lose at least as much weight as they set out to, and those who do not. For instance, high amounts of early weight loss, which some researchers have classified as unsustainable, leads to higher goal achievement rates. We also show that early food intake, self-monitoring motivation, and attitude towards the goal are important factors. We then show that we can use our findings to predict goal achievement with an accuracy of 79% ROC AUC just 7 days after a goal is set. Finally, we discuss how our findings could inform steps to improve goal achievement in self-tracking apps