Aperiodicity in one-way Markov cycles and repeat times of large earthquakes in faults

A common use of Markov Chains is the simulation of the seismic cycle in a fault, i.e. as a renewal model for the repetition of its characteristic earthquakes. This representation is consistent with Reid's elastic rebound theory. Here it is proved that in {\it any} one-way Markov cycle, the aperiodicity of the corresponding distribution of cycle lengths is always lower than one. This fact concurs with observations of large earthquakes in faults all over the world

Population Modeling Highlights Drug Disposition Differences Between Tenofovir Alafenamide and Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate in the Blood and Semen

Understanding antiretroviral disposition in the male genital tract, a distinct viral compartment, can provide insight for the eradication of HIV. Population pharmacokinetic modeling was conducted to investigate the disposition of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF), tenofovir alafenamide (TAF), and emtricitabine and their metabolites in blood and semen. Blood plasma and seminal plasma (SP) concentrations of tenofovir and emtricitabine were measured, as were tenofovir-diphosphate and emtricitabine-triphosphate concentrations in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and seminal mononuclear cells. Sequential compartmental modeling described drug disposition in blood and semen. Our modeling suggests slower elimination of apparent tenofovir-diphosphate PBMC and faster elimination of tenofovir SP after administration of TAF compared with TDF, likely reflecting flip-flop kinetics. Additionally, TAF metabolism to tenofovir appeared slower in semen compared with blood; however, SP elimination of TAF-derived tenofovir appeared faster than its blood plasma elimination. These findings provide valuable insight for further mechanistic study of cellular entry and drug metabolism in the male genital tract

Differential Extracellular, but Similar Intracellular, Disposition of two Tenofovir Formulations in the Male Genital Tract

Background: The male genital tract (MGT) is a viral sanctuary and likely HIV reservoir; understanding MGT pharmacokinet-ics (PK) of antiretrovirals (ARVs) used for curative strategies is critical to eradication and cure. Tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) is a tenofovir (TFV) formulation designed to maximize efficacy/minimize toxicity with unknown MGT PK. Methods: HIV-positive and HIV-negative men receiving TFV-based regimens provided six paired blood plasma (BP) and semen samples. Extracellular (TFV, TAF, emtricitabine [FTC]) drug concentrations in BP and seminal plasma (SP), and intracellular metabolite (IM) and endogenous nucleotide (EN) concentrations were measured in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and seminal mononuclear cells (SMCs). Exposure ratios for SP:BP, SMC:PBMC and IM:EN were calculated from PK parameters generated by noncompartmental analysis. HIV viral load was measured in BP and SP. Results: Sixteen HIV-positive (n=8, TDF/FTC; n=8, TAF/FTC) and eight HIV-negative (TDF/FTC) men provided samples. Median TFV SP:BP ratios differed between TDF and TAF (1.5 versus 7.4), due to lower TFV BP concentrations with TAF coupled with TFV SP concentrations similar to TDF. FTC SP:BP ratios were approximately 3. SMC concentrations of IMs and ENs were a fraction of PBMC concentrations (1–22%), though IM:EN ratios exceed a suggested protective threshold. Conclusions: TAF SP PK was unexpected. IM SMC concentrations were low relative to PBMC, as were EN concentrations, suggesting differences in cell phenotype and lineage in the MGT; these differences in phenotype and pharmacology may have an impact on selecting and dosing ARVs used in cure strategies

PEArL: a systems approach to demonstrating authenticity in information systems design

The process of information systems (IS) design has been dominated by the demands inherent in providing a technical solution to a perceived problem or need. Engineering IS design methods applied in order to satisfy the problem situation tend to have a preoccupation with verifying specifications as being mathematically correct. Diffculties arise when the ideas underpinning verification are extended in an attempt to ‘prove’ the validity of a proposed design for an IS. A pure engineering approach does not facilitate a response to the subjective elements within social situations, which experience has shown to be essential in demonstrating the pertinence of new designs to those concerned. We suggest that, by applying interpretivist systems ideas, it is possible to support concerned individuals in reflecting upon crucial aspects of the inquiry, enabling those individuals to judge the relevance or ‘authenticity’ of the learning, according to their own values and beliefs. The elements of participants, engagement, authority, relationships and learning are suggested as being crucial. These make up the mnemonic PEArL, which is offered as an aide-mémoire for those concerned with IS design

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17 : analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health

On the mechanisms governing gas penetration into a tokamak plasma during a massive gas injection

A new 1D radial fluid code, IMAGINE, is used to simulate the penetration of gas into a tokamak plasma during a massive gas injection (MGI). The main result is that the gas is in general strongly braked as it reaches the plasma, due to mechanisms related to charge exchange and (to a smaller extent) recombination. As a result, only a fraction of the gas penetrates into the plasma. Also, a shock wave is created in the gas which propagates away from the plasma, braking and compressing the incoming gas. Simulation results are quantitatively consistent, at least in terms of orders of magnitude, with experimental data for a D 2 MGI into a JET Ohmic plasma. Simulations of MGI into the background plasma surrounding a runaway electron beam show that if the background electron density is too high, the gas may not penetrate, suggesting a possible explanation for the recent results of Reux et al in JET (2015 Nucl. Fusion 55 093013)

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings: Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation: Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation