Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages

The performance of the jet trigger for the ATLAS detector during 2011 data taking

The performance of the jet trigger for the ATLAS detector at the LHC during the 2011 data taking period is described. During 2011 the LHC provided proton–proton collisions with a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV and heavy ion collisions with a 2.76 TeV per nucleon–nucleon collision energy. The ATLAS trigger is a three level system designed to reduce the rate of events from the 40 MHz nominal maximum bunch crossing rate to the approximate 400 Hz which can be written to offline storage. The ATLAS jet trigger is the primary means for the online selection of events containing jets. Events are accepted by the trigger if they contain one or more jets above some transverse energy threshold. During 2011 data taking the jet trigger was fully efficient for jets with transverse energy above 25 GeV for triggers seeded randomly at Level 1. For triggers which require a jet to be identified at each of the three trigger levels, full efficiency is reached for offline jets with transverse energy above 60 GeV. Jets reconstructed in the final trigger level and corresponding to offline jets with transverse energy greater than 60 GeV, are reconstructed with a resolution in transverse energy with respect to offline jets, of better than 4 % in the central region and better than 2.5 % in the forward direction

Search for large missing transverse momentum in association with one top-quark in proton-proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper describes a search for events with one top-quark and large missing transverse momentum in the final state. Data collected during 2015 and 2016 by the ATLAS experiment from 13 TeV proton–proton collisions at the LHC corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36.1 fb−1 are used. Two channels are considered, depending on the leptonic or the hadronic decays of the W boson from the top quark. The obtained results are interpreted in the context of simplified models for dark-matter production and for the single production of a vector-like T quark. In the absence of significant deviations from the Standard Model background expectation, 95% confidence-level upper limits on the corresponding production cross-sections are obtained and these limits are translated into constraints on the parameter space of the models considered

Correlated long-range mixed-harmonic fluctuations measured in pp, p+Pb and low-multiplicity Pb+Pb collisions with the ATLAS detector

For abstract see published article

Performance of top-quark and W -boson tagging with ATLAS in Run 2 of the LHC

The performance of identification algorithms (“taggers”) for hadronically decaying top quarks and W bosons in pp collisions at √s=13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider is presented. A set of techniques based on jet shape observables are studied to determine a set of optimal cut-based taggers for use in physics analyses. The studies are extended to assess the utility of combinations of substructure observables as a multivariate tagger using boosted decision trees or deep neural networks in comparison with taggers based on two-variable combinations. In addition, for highly boosted top-quark tagging, a deep neural network based on jet constituent inputs as well as a re-optimisation of the shower deconstruction technique is presented. The performance of these taggers is studied in data collected during 2015 and 2016 corresponding to 36.1 fb −1 for the tt ¯ and γ+jet and 36.7 fb −1 −1 for the dijet event topologies

Measurements of the charge asymmetry in top-quark pair production in the dilepton final state at s √ =8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Measurements of the top-antitop quark pair production charge asymmetry in the dilepton channel, characterized by two high-pT leptons (electrons or muons), are presented using data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.3  fb−1 from pp collisions at a center-of-mass energy s√=8  TeV collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. Inclusive and differential measurements as a function of the invariant mass, transverse momentum, and longitudinal boost of the tt¯ system are performed both in the full phase space and in a fiducial phase space closely matching the detector acceptance. Two observables are studied: AℓℓC based on the selected leptons and Att¯C based on the reconstructed tt¯ final state. The inclusive asymmetries are measured in the full phase space to be AℓℓC=0.008±0.006 and Att¯C=0.021±0.016, which are in agreement with the Standard Model predictions of AℓℓC=0.0064±0.0003 and Att¯C=0.0111±0.0004

In situ calibration of large-radius jet energy and mass in 13 TeV proton–proton collisions with the ATLAS detector

The response of the ATLAS detector to largeradius jets is measured in situ using 36.2 fb−1 of √s = 13 TeV proton–proton collisions provided by the LHC and recorded by the ATLAS experiment during 2015 and 2016. The jet energy scale is measured in events where the jet recoils against a reference object, which can be either a calibrated photon, a reconstructed Z boson, or a system of well-measured small-radius jets. The jet energy resolution and a calibration of forward jets are derived using dijet balance measurements. The jet mass response is measured with two methods: using mass peaks formed by W bosons and top quarks with large transverse momenta and by comparing the jet mass measured using the energy deposited in the calorimeter with that using the momenta of charged-particle tracks. The transversemomentum and mass responses in simulations are found to be about 2–3% higher than in data. This difference is adjusted for with a correction factor. The results of the different methods are combined to yield a calibration over a large range of transverse momenta (pT). The precision of the relative jet energy scale is 1–2% for 200 GeV < pT < 2 TeV, while that of the mass scale is 2–10%. The ratio of the energy resolutions in data and simulation is measured to a precision of 10–15% over the same pT range

Search for lepton flavour violating decays of the Higgs boson to eτand eμin proton–proton collisions at √s=8TeV

A direct search for lepton flavour violating decays of the Higgs boson (H) in the H →eτand H →eμchannels is described. The data sample used in the search was collected in proton–proton collisions at √s=8TeVwith the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 19.7fb−1. No evidence is found for lepton flavour violating decays in either final state. Upper limits on the branching fractions, B(H →eτ) <0.69%and B(H →eμ) <0.035%, are set at the 95% confidence level. The constraint set on B(H →eτ)is an order of magnitude more stringent than the existing indirect limits. The limits are used to constrain the corresponding flavour violating Yukawa couplings, absent in the standard model

Search for the Standard Model Higgs boson decaying into bb¯ produced in association with top quarks decaying hadronically in pp collisions at √s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for Higgs boson production in association with a pair of top quarks (tt¯ H) is performed, where the Higgs boson decays to bb¯, and both top quarks decay hadronically. The data used correspond to an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb−1 of pp collisions at √s = 8 TeV collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The search selects events with at least six energetic jets and uses a boosted decision tree algorithm to discriminate between signal and Standard Model background. The dominant multijet background is estimated using a dedicated data-driven technique. For a Higgs boson mass of 125 GeV, an upper limit of 6.4 (5.4) times the Standard Model cross section is observed (expected) at 95% confidence level. The best-fit value for the signal strength is μ = 1.6 ± 2.6 times the Standard Model expectation for mH = 125 GeV. Combining all tt¯ H searches carried out by ATLAS at √s = 8 and 7 TeV, an observed (expected) upper limit of 3.1 (1.4) times the Standard Model expectation is obtained at 95% confidence level, with a signal strength μ = 1.7 ± 0.8