133 research outputs found

    Global and local sea level during the Last Interglacial: A probabilistic assessment

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    The Last Interglacial (LIG) stage, with polar temperatures likely 3-5 C warmer than today, serves as a partial analogue for low-end future warming scenarios. Based upon a small set of local sea level indicators, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) inferred that LIG global sea level (GSL) was about 4-6 m higher than today. However, because local sea levels differ from GSL, accurately reconstructing past GSL requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we compile an extensive database of sea level indicators and apply a novel statistical approach that couples Gaussian process regression of sea level to Markov Chain Monte Carlo modeling of geochronological errors. Our analysis strongly supports the hypothesis that LIG GSL was higher than today, probably peaking at 6-9 m. Our results highlight the sea level hazard associated with even relatively low levels of sustained global warming.Comment: Preprint version of what has since been published in Natur

    The relationship between eruptive activity, flank collapse, and sea level at volcanic islands: A long-term (>1 Ma) record offshore Montserrat, Lesser Antilles

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    Hole U1395B, drilled southeast of Montserrat during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 340, provides a long (>1 Ma) and detailed record of eruptive and mass-wasting events (>130 discrete events). This record can be used to explore the temporal evolution in volcanic activity and landslides at an arc volcano. Analysis of tephra fall and volcaniclastic turbidite deposits in the drill cores reveals three heightened periods of volcanic activity on the island of Montserrat (?930 ka to ?900 ka, ?810 ka to ?760 ka, and ?190 ka to ?120 ka) that coincide with periods of increased volcano instability and mass-wasting. The youngest of these periods marks the peak in activity at the Soufrière Hills volcano. The largest flank collapse of this volcano (?130 ka) occurred towards the end of this period, and two younger landslides also occurred during a period of relatively elevated volcanism. These three landslides represent the only large (>0.3 km3) flank collapses of the Soufrière Hills edifice, and their timing also coincides with periods of rapid sea-level rise (>5 m/ka). Available age data from other island arc volcanoes suggests a general correlation between the timing of large landslides and periods of rapid sea-level rise, but this is not observed for volcanoes in intra-plate ocean settings. We thus infer that rapid sea-level rise may modulate the timing of collapse at island arc volcanoes, but not in larger ocean-island settings

    Scientific drilling projects in ancient lakes: integrating geological and biological histories

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    Sedimentary sequences in ancient or long-lived lakes can reach several thousands of meters in thickness and often provide an unrivalled perspective of the lake's regional climatic, environmental, and biological history. Over the last few years, deep drilling projects in ancient lakes became increasingly multi- and interdisciplinary, as, among others, seismological, sedimentological, biogeochemical, climatic, environmental, paleontological, and evolutionary information can be obtained from sediment cores. However, these multi- and interdisciplinary projects pose several challenges. The scientists involved typically approach problems from different scientific perspectives and backgrounds, and setting up the program requires clear communication and the alignment of interests. One of the most challenging tasks, besides the actual drilling operation, is to link diverse datasets with varying resolution, data quality, and age uncertainties to answer interdisciplinary questions synthetically and coherently. These problems are especially relevant when secondary data, i.e., datasets obtained independently of the drilling operation, are incorporated in analyses. Nonetheless, the inclusion of secondary information, such as isotopic data from fossils found in outcrops or genetic data from extant species, may help to achieve synthetic answers. Recent technological and methodological advances in paleolimnology are likely to increase the possibilities of integrating secondary information, e.g., through molecular dating of molecular phylogenies. Some of the new approaches have started to revolutionize scientific drilling in ancient lakes, but at the same time, they also add a new layer of complexity to the generation and analysis of sediment core data. The enhanced opportunities presented by new scientific approaches to study the paleolimnological history of these lakes, therefore, come at the expense of higher logistic, communication, and analytical efforts. Here we review types of data that can be obtained in ancient lake drilling projects and the analytical approaches that can be applied to empirically and statistically link diverse datasets for creating an integrative perspective on geological and biological data. In doing so, we highlight strengths and potential weaknesses of new methods and analyses, and provide recommendations for future interdisciplinary deep drilling projects

    Review of the late Quaternary stratigraphy of the northern Gulf of Cadiz continental margin:New insights into controlling factors and global implications

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    Over the past decades, the northern Gulf of Cadiz has been the focus of a wide range of late Quaternary seismic and sequence stratigraphic studies, either addressing the slope contourite depositional system (CDS), or the development of the continental shelf. Yet, high-resolution seismic data bridging between these domains and age information have remained sparse. This study, based on new high-resolution reflection seismic profiles calibrated to IODP Expedition 339 sites U1386/U1387, now presents an updated stratigraphic framework, that integrates (for the first time) the late Quaternary records of the northern Gulf of Cadiz middle slope to shelf off the Guadiana River. Seismic stratigraphic analysis of the stacking, depocenter distribution, stratal architecture and facies of the seismic (sub-)units reveals the influence of similar to 100 kyr sea-level variations paced by Milankovitch (eccentricity) cycles, tectonics (manifesting as two pulses of uplift and margin progradation), sediment supply and bottom current activity. This work furthermore contributes to the application and understanding of high-resolution, late Quaternary sequence stratigraphy. Firstly, the proposed sequence stratigraphic interpretation shows that adaptations to the basic models are required to integrate the shelf and slope record, and to account for the presence of a significant alongslope (bottom current-controlled) component. Secondly, the results confirm that the sequences are dominantly composed of regressive deposits, whereas the preservation of transgressive to highstand deposits is more irregular. Significantly, the common assumption that successive major glacial lowstands are consistently recorded as well-marked, shelf-wide erosional unconformities, is demonstrated to be occasionally invalid, as tectonics can obliterate this one-to-one relationship

    Mediterranean winter rainfall in phase with African monsoons during the past 1.36 million years

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    Mediterranean climates are characterized by strong seasonal contrasts between dry summers and wet winters. Changes in winter rainfall are critical for regional socioeconomic development, but are difficult to simulate accurately1 and reconstruct on Quaternary timescales. This is partly because regional hydroclimate records that cover multiple glacial–interglacial cycles2,3 with different orbital geometries, global ice volume and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are scarce. Moreover, the underlying mechanisms of change and their persistence remain unexplored. Here we show that, over the past 1.36 million years, wet winters in the northcentral Mediterranean tend to occur with high contrasts in local, seasonal insolation and a vigorous African summer monsoon. Our proxy time series from Lake Ohrid on the Balkan Peninsula, together with a 784,000-year transient climate model hindcast, suggest that increased sea surface temperatures amplify local cyclone development and refuel North Atlantic low-pressure systems that enter the Mediterranean during phases of low continental ice volume and high concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. A comparison with modern reanalysis data shows that current drivers of the amount of rainfall in the Mediterranean share some similarities to those that drive the reconstructed increases in precipitation. Our data cover multiple insolation maxima and are therefore an important benchmark for testing climate model performance

    Vegetation succession and climate change across the Plio-Pleistocene transition in eastern Azerbaijan, central Eurasia (2.77–2.45 Ma)

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    The Plio-Pleistocene transition marked a key moment in global climate history, characterised by the onset of major glaciations in the Northern Hemisphere. The palaeoenvironmental history of the Plio-Pleistocene transition is not well known for the Caspian Sea region, despite its importance for global climate dynamics. Here we present an independently 40Ar/39Ar dated, high-resolution terrestrial palynological record spanning the Plio-Pleistocene boundary based on a lacustrine-marine sedimentary sequence from eastern Azerbaijan. Despite complex pollen transport pathways and the proximity of closely stacked mountain vegetation belts in the Greater and Lesser Caucasus, the record shows that regional vegetation responded to Milankovitch forced glacial-interglacial cycles, tentatively correlated with global climatic records spanning MIS G8 to 98 (∼2.77–2.45 Ma). The persistence of mesophilous forests during glacial times indicates that some settings in the South Caspian Basin acted as glacial refugia, and that vegetation response to glaciations was muted by increased moisture availability, linked to Caspian transgression. The palynological record shows a relationship with global [delta]18O stacks and specifically to the obliquity record. We anticipate that precise correlation with the global climatostratigraphic timescale will allow better understanding of the nature and timing of important transgressive events in the Caspian Sea and their relevance on a global scale
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