Active learning and optimal climate policy

This paper develops a climate-economy model with uncertainty, irreversibility, and active learning. Whereas previous papers assume learning from one observation per period, or experiment with control variables to gain additional information, this paper considers active learning from investment in monitoring, specifically in improved observations of the global mean temperature. We find that the decision maker invests a significant amount of money in climate research, far more than the current level, in order to increase the rate of learning about climate change. This helps the decision maker make improved decisions. The level of uncertainty decreases more rapidly in the active learning model than in the passive learning model with only temperature observations. As the uncertainty about climate change is smaller, active learning reduces the optimal carbon tax. The greater the risk, the larger is the effect of learning. The method proposed here is applicable to any dynamic control problem where the quality of monitoring is a choice variable, for instance, the precision at which we observe GDP, unemployment, or the quality of education

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente

Invasion is a community affair: clandestine followers in the bacterial community associated to green algae, Caulerpa racemosa, track the invasion source

Biological invasions rank amongst the most deleterious components of global change inducing alterations from genes to ecosystems. The genetic characteristics of introduced pools of individuals greatly influence the capacity of introduced species to establish and expand. The recently demonstrated heritability of microbial communities associated to individual genotypes of primary producers makes them a potentially essential element of the evolution and adaptability of their hosts. Here, we characterized the bacterial communities associated to native and non-native populations of the marine green macroalga Caulerpa racemosa through pyrosequencing, and explored their potential role on the strikingly invasive trajectory of their host in the Mediterranean. The similarity of endophytic bacterial communities from the native Australian range and several Mediterranean locations confirmed the origin of invasion and revealed distinct communities associated to a second Mediterranean variety of C. racemosa long reported in the Mediterranean. Comparative analysis of these two groups demonstrated the stability of the composition of bacterial communities through the successive steps of introduction and invasion and suggested the vertical transmission of some major bacterial OTUs. Indirect inferences on the taxonomic identity and associated metabolism of bacterial lineages showed a striking consistency with sediment upheaval conditions associated to the expansion of their invasive host and to the decline of native species. These results demonstrate that bacterial communities can be an effective tracer of the origin of invasion and support their potential role in their eukaryotic host’s adaptation to new environments. They put forward the critical need to consider the 'meta-organism' encompassing both the host and associated micro-organisms, to unravel the origins, causes and mechanisms underlying biological invasions

Adolescents' involvement in cyber bullying and perceptions of school: the importance of perceived peer acceptance for female adolescents

Young people are spending increasing amounts of time using digital technology and, as such, are at great risk of being involved in cyber bullying as a victim, bully, or bully/victim. Despite cyber bullying typically occurring outside the school environment, the impact of being involved in cyber bullying is likely to spill over to school. Fully 285 11- to 15-year-olds (125 male and 160 female, M age = 12.19 years, SD = 1.03) completed measures of cyber bullying involvement, self-esteem, trust, perceived peer acceptance, and perceptions of the value of learning and the importance of school. For young women, involvement in cyber bullying as a victim, bully, or bully/victim negatively predicted perceptions of learning and school, and perceived peer acceptance mediated this relationship. The results indicated that involvement in cyber bullying negatively predicted perceived peer acceptance which, in turn, positively predicted perceptions of learning and school. For young men, fulfilling the bully/victim role negatively predicted perceptions of learning and school. Consequently, for young women in particular, involvement in cyber bullying spills over to impact perceptions of learning. The findings of the current study highlight how stressors external to the school environment can adversely impact young women's perceptions of school and also have implications for the development of interventions designed to ameliorate the effects of cyber bullying

Unravelling a simple method for the low temperature synthesis of silicon nanocrystals and monolithic nanocrystalline thin films

In this work, we present new results on the plasma processing and structure of hydrogenated polymorphous silicon (pm-Si:H) thin films. pm-Si:H thin films consist of a low volume fraction of silicon nanocrystals embedded in a silicon matrix with medium range order, and they possess this morphology as a significant contribution to their growth comes from the impact on the substrate of silicon clusters and nanocrystals synthesized in the plasma. Quadrupole mass spectrometry, ion flux measurements, and material characterization by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and atomic force microscopy all provide insight on the contribution to the growth by silicon nanocrystals during PECVD deposition. In particular, cross-section TEM measurements show for the first time that the silicon nanocrystals are uniformly distributed across the thickness of the pm-Si:H film. Moreover, parametric studies indicate that the best pm-Si:H material is obtained at the conditions after the transition between a pristine plasma and one containing nanocrystals, namely a total gas pressure around 2 Torr and a silane to hydrogen ratio between 0.05 to 0.1. From a practical point of view these conditions also correspond to the highest deposition rate achievable for a given RF power and silane flow rate.ope

Measurement of the t¯tZ and t¯tW cross sections in proton-proton collisions at √s=13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of the associated production of a top-quark pair (t¯t) with a vector boson (W, Z) in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV is presented, using 36.1  fb−1 of integrated luminosity collected by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. Events are selected in channels with two same- or opposite-sign leptons (electrons or muons), three leptons or four leptons, and each channel is further divided into multiple regions to maximize the sensitivity of the measurement. The t¯tZ and t¯tW production cross sections are simultaneously measured using a combined fit to all regions. The best-fit values of the production cross sections are σt¯tZ=0.95±0.08stat±0.10syst pb and σt¯tW=0.87±0.13stat±0.14syst pb in agreement with the Standard Model predictions. The measurement of the t¯tZ cross section is used to set constraints on effective field theory operators which modify the t¯tZ vertex

Time from first presentation in primary care to treatment of symptomatic colorectal cancer:effect on disease stage and survival

BACKGROUND: British 5-year survival from colorectal cancer (CRC) is below the European average, but the reasons are unclear. This study explored if longer provider delays (time from presentation to treatment) were associated with more advanced stage disease at diagnosis and poorer survival. METHODS: Data on 958 people with CRC were linked with the Scottish Cancer Registry, the Scottish Death Registry and the acute hospital discharge (SMR01) dataset. Time from first presentation in primary care to first treatment, disease stage at diagnosis and survival time from date of first presentation in primary care were determined. Logistic regression and Cox survival analyses, both with a restricted cubic spline, were used to model stage and survival, respectively, following sequential adjustment of patient and tumour factors. RESULTS: On univariate analysis, those with <4 weeks from first presentation in primary care to treatment had more advanced disease at diagnosis and the poorest prognosis. Treatment delays between 4 and 34 weeks were associated with earlier stage (with the lowest odds ratio occurring at 20 weeks) and better survival (with the lowest hazard ratio occurring at 16 weeks). Provider delays beyond 34 weeks were associated with more advanced disease at diagnosis, but not increased mortality. Following adjustment for patient, tumour factors, emergency admissions and symptoms and signs, no significant relationship between provider delay and stage at diagnosis or survival from CRC was found. CONCLUSIONS: Although allowing for a nonlinear relationship and important confounders, moderately long provider delays did not impact adversely on cancer outcomes. Delays are undesirable because they cause anxiety; this may be fuelled by government targets and health campaigns stressing the importance of very prompt cancer diagnosis. Our findings should reassure patients. They suggest that a health service's primary emphasis should be on quality and outcomes rather than on time to treatment

Measurement of the inclusive and fiducial tt ¯ production cross-sections in the lepton+jets channel in pp collisions at s √ =8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive and fiducial tt ¯ production cross-sections are measured in the lepton+jets channel using 20.2 fb −1 of proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Major systematic uncertainties due to the modelling of the jet energy scale and b -tagging efficiency are constrained by separating selected events into three disjoint regions. In order to reduce systematic uncertainties in the most important background, the W+jets process is modelled using Z+jets events in a data-driven approach. The inclusive tt ¯ cross-section is measured with a precision of 5.7% to be σ inc (tt ¯ ) = 248.3 ± 0.7 (stat.) ± 13.4 (syst.) ± 4.7 (lumi.) pb, assuming a top-quark mass of 172.5 GeV. The result is in agreement with the Standard Model prediction. The cross-section is also measured in a phase space close to that of the selected data. The fiducial cross-section is σ fid (tt ¯ ) = 48.8 ± 0.1 (stat.) ± 2.0 (syst.) ± 0.9 (lumi.) pb with a precision of 4.5%

Population based estimates of non-fatal injuries in the capital of Iran

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Fatal injuries are at the top of the injury pyramid; however, non-fatal injuries are quite common and impose huge medical expenses on the population. Relying on hospital data will underestimate the incidence of non-fatal injuries. The aim of this study was to estimate the annual incidence and out of pocket medical expenses of all injuries in urban population of Tehran (the capital city of Iran).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using the cluster random sampling approach, a household survey of residents of greater Tehran was performed on April 2008. At randomly selected residential locations, interviewers asked one adult person to report all injuries which have occurred during the past year for all household members, as well as the type of injury, place of occurrence, the activity, cause of accidents resulting in injuries, the amount of out of pocket medical expenses for injury, and whether they referred to hospital.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>This study included 2,450 households residing in Tehran during 2007-8. The annual incidence of all injuries was 188.7 (180.7-196.9), significant injuries needing any medical care was 68.8 (63.7-74.2), fractures was 19.3 (16.6 - 22.4), and injuries resulted in hospitalization was 16.7 (14.2 - 19.6) per 1000 population. The annual incidence of fatal injuries was 33 (7-96) per 100,000 Population. In children aged 15 or less, the annual incidence of all injuries was 137.2 (120.0 - 155.9), significant injuries needing any medical care was 64.2 (52.2 - 78.0), fractures was 21.8 (15.0 - 30.7), and injuries resulted in hospitalization was 6.8 (3.3 - 12.5) per 1000 population. The mean out of pocket medical expense for injuries was 19.9 USD.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This population based study showed that the real incidence of non-fatal injuries in the capital of Iran is more than the formal hospital-based estimates. These injuries impose non trivial medical and indirect cost on the community. The out of pocket medical expense of non-fatal injuries to Tehran population is estimated as 27 million USD per year. Effective strategies should be considered to minimize these injuries and decrease the great financial burden to public and the health system.</p

Randomised controlled trial of thermostatic mixer valves in reducing bath hot tap water temperature in families with young children in social housing: A protocol

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Each year in the UK 2000 children attend emergency departments and 500 are admitted to hospital following a bath water scald. The long term effects can include disability, disfigurement or psychological harm and repeated skin grafts may be required as the child grows. The costs of treating a severe scald are estimated at 250,000 GBP. Children living in the most deprived wards are at greatest risk of thermal injuries; hospital admission rates are three times that for children living in the least deprived wards.</p> <p>Domestic hot water, which is usually stored at around 60 degrees Celsius, can result in a second-degree burn after 3 seconds and a third-degree burn after 5 seconds. Educational strategies to encourage testing of tap water temperature and reduction of hot water thermostat settings have largely proved unsuccessful. Legislation in the USA mandating pre-setting hot water heater thermostats at 49 degrees Celsius was effective in reducing scald injuries, suggesting passive measures may have a greater impact. Thermostatic mixer valves (TMVs), recently developed for the domestic market, fitted across the hot and cold water supply pipes of the bath, allow delivery of water set at a fixed temperature from the hot bath tap. These valves therefore offer the potential to reduce scald injuries.</p> <p>Design/Methods</p> <p>A pragmatic, randomised controlled trial to assess the effectiveness of TMVs in reducing bath hot tap water temperatures in the homes of families with young children in rented social housing. Two parallel arms include an intervention group and a control group where the intervention will be deferred.</p> <p>The intervention will consist of fitting a TMV (set at 44 degrees Celsius) by a qualified plumber and provision of educational materials. The control arm will not receive a TMV or the educational materials for the study duration but will be offered the intervention after collection of follow-up data 12 months post randomisation.</p> <p>The primary outcome measure will be the bath hot tap water temperature. Fifteen families per arm are required to detect a reduction in the mean bath hot tap water temperature from 60.4 degrees Celsius (SD 9.1) in the control group to 46 degrees Celsius in the intervention group, with 90% power and a 5% significance level (2 sided). Secondary outcome measures including acceptability will require a sample size of 120 participants.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Whilst TMVs have the potential to reduce scald injuries, to date there have been no randomised controlled trials assessing their effectiveness, acceptability and cost effectiveness.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ISRCTN21179067</p