Publishing Standards for Research in Forecasting (Editorial)

When we first began publication of the Journal of Forecasting, we reviewed policies that were used by other journals and also examined the research on scientific publishing. Our findings were translated into a referee's rating form that was published in the journal [Armstrong (1982a)]. These guidelines were favorably received. Most referees used the Referee's Rating Sheet (Exhibit 1 provides an updated version) and some of them wrote to tell us that they found it helpful in communicating the aims and criteria of the journal.publishing standards, research, forecasting

Risk of metabolic syndrome among children living in metropolitan Kuala Lumpur: A case control study

Background With the increasing prevalence of childhood obesity, the metabolic syndrome has been studied among children in many countries but not in Malaysia. Hence, this study aimed to compare metabolic risk factors between overweight/obese and normal weight children and to determine the influence of gender and ethnicity on the metabolic syndrome among school children aged 9-12 years in Kuala Lumpur and its metropolitan suburbs. Methods A case control study was conducted among 402 children, comprising 193 normal-weight and 209 overweight/obese. Weight, height, waist circumference (WC) and body composition were measured, and WHO (2007) growth reference was used to categorise children into the two weight groups. Blood pressure (BP) was taken, and blood was drawn after an overnight fast to determine fasting blood glucose (FBG) and full lipid profile, including triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and total cholesterol (TC). International Diabetes Federation (2007) criteria for children were used to identify metabolic syndrome. Results Participants comprised 60.9% (n = 245) Malay, 30.9% (n = 124) Chinese and 8.2% (n = 33) Indian. Overweight/obese children showed significantly poorer biochemical profile, higher body fat percentage and anthropometric characteristics compared to the normal-weight group. Among the metabolic risk factors, WC ≥90th percentile was found to have the highest odds (OR = 189.0; 95%CI 70.8, 504.8), followed by HDL-C≤1.03 mmol/L (OR = 5.0; 95%CI 2.4, 11.1) and high BP (OR = 4.2; 95%CI 1.3, 18.7). Metabolic syndrome was found in 5.3% of the overweight/obese children but none of the normal-weight children (p < 0.01). Overweight/obese children had higher odds (OR = 16.3; 95%CI 2.2, 461.1) of developing the metabolic syndrome compared to normal-weight children. Binary logistic regression showed no significant association between age, gender and family history of communicable diseases with the metabolic syndrome. However, for ethnicity, Indians were found to have higher odds (OR = 5.5; 95%CI 1.5, 20.5) compared to Malays, with Chinese children (OR = 0.3; 95%CI 0.0, 2.7) having the lowest odds. Conclusions We conclude that being overweight or obese poses a greater risk of developing the metabolic syndrome among children. Indian ethnicity is at higher risk compared to their counterparts of the same age. Hence, primary intervention strategies are required to prevent this problem from escalating

Brain computer tomography in critically ill patients -- a prospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Brain computer tomography (brain CT) is an important imaging tool in patients with intracranial disorders. In ICU patients, a brain CT implies an intrahospital transport which has inherent risks. The proceeds and consequences of a brain CT in a critically ill patient should outweigh these risks. The aim of this study was to critically evaluate the diagnostic and therapeutic yield of brain CT in ICU patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In a prospective observational study data were collected during one year on the reasons to request a brain CT, expected abnormalities, abnormalities found by the radiologist and consequences for treatment. An “expected abnormality” was any finding that had been predicted by the physician requesting the brain CT. A brain CT was “diagnostically positive”, if the abnormality found was new or if an already known abnormality was increased. It was “diagnostically negative” if an already known abnormality was unchanged or if an expected abnormality was not found. The treatment consequences of the brain CT, were registered as “treatment as planned”, “treatment changed, not as planned”, “treatment unchanged”.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Data of 225 brain CT in 175 patients were analyzed. In 115 (51%) brain CT the abnormalities found were new or increased known abnormalities. 115 (51%) brain CT were found to be diagnostically positive. In the medical group 29 (39%) of brain CT were positive, in the surgical group 86 (57%), <it>p</it> 0.01. After a positive brain CT, in which the expected abnormalities were found, treatment was changed as planned in 33%, and in 19% treatment was changed otherwise than planned.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The results of this study show that the diagnostic and therapeutic yield of brain CT in critically ill patients is moderate. The development of guidelines regarding the decision rules for performing a brain CT in ICU patients is needed.</p

Effects of Noise Bandwidth and Amplitude Modulation on Masking in Frog Auditory Midbrain Neurons

Natural auditory scenes such as frog choruses consist of multiple sound sources (i.e., individual vocalizing males) producing sounds that overlap extensively in time and spectrum, often in the presence of other biotic and abiotic background noise. Detection of a signal in such environments is challenging, but it is facilitated when the noise shares common amplitude modulations across a wide frequency range, due to a phenomenon called comodulation masking release (CMR). Here, we examined how properties of the background noise, such as its bandwidth and amplitude modulation, influence the detection threshold of a target sound (pulsed amplitude modulated tones) by single neurons in the frog auditory midbrain. We found that for both modulated and unmodulated masking noise, masking was generally stronger with increasing bandwidth, but it was weakened for the widest bandwidths. Masking was less for modulated noise than for unmodulated noise for all bandwidths. However, responses were heterogeneous, and only for a subpopulation of neurons the detection of the probe was facilitated when the bandwidth of the modulated masker was increased beyond a certain bandwidth – such neurons might contribute to CMR. We observed evidence that suggests that the dips in the noise amplitude are exploited by TS neurons, and observed strong responses to target signals occurring during such dips. However, the interactions between the probe and masker responses were nonlinear, and other mechanisms, e.g., selective suppression of the response to the noise, may also be involved in the masking release

Cyclic Tetrapyrrolic Photosensitisers from the leaves of Phaeanthus ophthalmicus

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Twenty-seven extracts from 26 plants were identified as photo-cytotoxic in the course of our bioassay guided screening program for photosensitisers from 128 extracts prepared from 64 terrestrial plants in two different collection sites in Malaysia - Royal Belum Forest Reserve in the State of Perak and Gunung Nuang in the State of Selangor. One of the photo-cytotoxic extracts from the leaves of <it>Phaeanthus ophtalmicus </it>was further investigated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The ethanolic extract of the leaves from <it>Phaeanthus ophtalmicus </it>was able to reduce the <it>in vitro </it>viability of leukaemic HL60 cells to < 50% when exposed to 9.6 J/cm²of a broad spectrum light at a concentration of 20 μg/mL. Dereplication of the photo-cytotoxic fractions from <it>P. ophthalmicus </it>extracts based on TLC R_fvalues and HPLC co-injection of reference tetrapyrrolic compounds enabled quick identification of known photosensitisers, pheophorbide-<it>a</it>, pheophorbide-<it>a </it>methyl ester, 13²-hydroxypheophorbide-<it>a </it>methyl ester, pheophytin-<it>a </it>and 15¹-hydroxypurpurin 7-lactone dimethyl ester. In addition, compound <b>1 </b>which was not previously isolated as a natural product was also identified as 7-formyl-15¹-hydroxypurpurin-7-lactone methyl ester using standard spectroscopic techniques.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results suggest that the main photosensitisers in plants are based on the cyclic tetrapyrrole structure and photosensitisers with other structures, if present, are present in very minor amounts or are not as active as those with the cyclic tetrapyrrole structure.</p

Observation of associated near-side and away-side long-range correlations in √sNN=5.02 TeV proton-lead collisions with the ATLAS detector

Two-particle correlations in relative azimuthal angle (Δϕ) and pseudorapidity (Δη) are measured in √sNN=5.02  TeV p+Pb collisions using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements are performed using approximately 1  μb-1 of data as a function of transverse momentum (pT) and the transverse energy (ΣETPb) summed over 3.1<η<4.9 in the direction of the Pb beam. The correlation function, constructed from charged particles, exhibits a long-range (2<|Δη|<5) “near-side” (Δϕ∼0) correlation that grows rapidly with increasing ΣETPb. A long-range “away-side” (Δϕ∼π) correlation, obtained by subtracting the expected contributions from recoiling dijets and other sources estimated using events with small ΣETPb, is found to match the near-side correlation in magnitude, shape (in Δη and Δϕ) and ΣETPb dependence. The resultant Δϕ correlation is approximately symmetric about π/2, and is consistent with a dominant cos⁡2Δϕ modulation for all ΣETPb ranges and particle pT

Measurement of the cross-section of high transverse momentum vector bosons reconstructed as single jets and studies of jet substructure in pp collisions at √s = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents a measurement of the cross-section for high transverse momentum W and Z bosons produced in pp collisions and decaying to all-hadronic final states. The data used in the analysis were recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7 TeV;{\rm Te}{\rm V}$and correspond to an integrated luminosity of$4.6\;{\rm f}{{{\rm b}}^{-1}}$. The measurement is performed by reconstructing the boosted W or Z bosons in single jets. The reconstructed jet mass is used to identify the W and Z bosons, and a jet substructure method based on energy cluster information in the jet centre-of-mass frame is used to suppress the large multi-jet background. The cross-section for events with a hadronically decaying W or Z boson, with transverse momentum${{p}_{{\rm T}}}\gt 320\;{\rm Ge}{\rm V}$and pseudorapidity$|\eta |\lt 1.9$, is measured to be${{\sigma }_{W+Z}}=8.5\pm 1.7$ pb and is compared to next-to-leading-order calculations. The selected events are further used to study jet grooming techniques

Search for the neutral Higgs bosons of the minimal supersymmetric standard model in pp collisions at root s=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for neutral Higgs bosons of the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) is reported. The analysis is based on a sample of proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The data were recorded in 2011 and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 4.7 fb-1 to 4.8 fb-1. Higgs boson decays into oppositely-charged muon or τ lepton pairs are considered for final states requiring either the presence or absence of b-jets. No statistically significant excess over the expected background is observed and exclusion limits at the 95% confidence level are derived. The exclusion limits are for the production cross-section of a generic neutral Higgs boson, φ, as a function of the Higgs boson mass and for h/A/H production in the MSSM as a function of the parameters mA and tan β in the mhmax scenario for mA in the range of 90GeV to 500 GeV. Copyright CERN

Search for direct pair production of the top squark in all-hadronic final states in proton-proton collisions at s√=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The results of a search for direct pair production of the scalar partner to the top quark using an integrated luminosity of 20.1fb−1 of proton–proton collision data at √s = 8 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC are reported. The top squark is assumed to decay via t˜→tχ˜01 or t˜→ bχ˜±1 →bW(∗)χ˜01 , where χ˜01 (χ˜±1 ) denotes the lightest neutralino (chargino) in supersymmetric models. The search targets a fully-hadronic final state in events with four or more jets and large missing transverse momentum. No significant excess over the Standard Model background prediction is observed, and exclusion limits are reported in terms of the top squark and neutralino masses and as a function of the branching fraction of t˜ → tχ˜01 . For a branching fraction of 100%, top squark masses in the range 270–645 GeV are excluded for χ˜01 masses below 30 GeV. For a branching fraction of 50% to either t˜ → tχ˜01 or t˜ → bχ˜±1 , and assuming the χ˜±1 mass to be twice the χ˜01 mass, top squark masses in the range 250–550 GeV are excluded for χ˜01 masses below 60 GeV