Prioritize Strategies Appropriate to the Present Conditions of Sericulture Industry in Iran

ABSTRACT Sericulture has a long background in Iran and this industry has played an important role in Iranian economy and culture. Challenges ahead of this industry and attention to its role in economic development, increasing income, increasing occupation, helping with rural economy and Make strategy development essential. The present research is an applied one because of its goal, which is determining appropriate strategies for Iranian sericulture industry in order to revive and develop this industry. In the present research, documents and evidence were gathered and internal/external environmental parameters influencing on sericulture industry were identified in the form of weak points/strengths and threats/opportunities. Questionnaire and interview were used to ask 62 experts and validity and reliability were tested. The gathered data were analyzed by PASW statistics 18 software. Results of SWOT matrix showed that Iranian silk and sericulture industry are at defensive position. results of evaluating appropriate strategies corresponding to the present position of sericulture industry using QSPM showed that diversification strategy and development of silk products strategy, maintaining sericulture industry by developing carpet industry and maintaining the present position by developing agriculture sector are the most appropriate strategies for releasing this industry from the present position

Cyber security for smart grid: a human-automation interaction framework

Abstract-- Power grid cyber security is turning into a vital concern, while we are moving from the traditional power grid toward modern Smart Grid (SG). To achieve the smart grid objectives, development of Information Technology (IT) infrastructure and computer based automation is necessary. This development makes the smart grid more prone to the cyber attacks. This paper presents a cyber security strategy for the smart grid based on Human Automation Interaction (HAI) theory and especially Adaptive Autonomy (AA) concept. We scheme an adaptive Level of Automation (LOA) for Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems. This level of automation will be adapted to some environmental conditions which are presented in this paper. The paper presents a brief background, methodology (methodology design), implementation and discussions. Index Terms—smart grid, human automation interaction, adaptive autonomy, cyber security, performance shaping facto

Hypocalcemia in hospitalized patients with COVID‑19: roles of hypovitaminosis D and functional hypoparathyroidism

Introduction Despite the high prevalence of hypocalcemia in patients with COVID-19, very limited studies have been designed to evaluate etiologies of this disorder. This study was designed to evaluate the status of serum parameters involved in calcium metabolism in patients with COVID-19 and hypocalcemia. Materials and methods This cross-sectional study was conducted on 123 hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Serum concentrations of PTH, 25 (OH) D, magnesium, phosphate, and albumin were assessed and compared across three groups of moderate/severe hypocalcemia (serum total calcium<8 mg/dl), mild hypocalcemia (8 mg/dl≤serum total calcium<8.5 mg/ dl) and normocalcemia (serum total calcium≥8.5 mg/dl). Multivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the independent roles of serum parameters in hypocalcemia. Results In total, 65.9% of the patients had hypocalcemia. Vitamin D defciency was found in 44.4% and 37.7% of moderate/ severe and mild hypocalcemia cases, respectively, compared to 7.1% in the normal serum total calcium group (P=0.003). In multivariate analysis, vitamin D defciency was independently associated with 6.2 times higher risk of hypocalcemia (P=0.001). Only a minority of patients with hypocalcemia had appropriately high PTH (15.1% and 14.3% in mild and moderate/severe hypocalcemia, respectively). Serum PTH was low/low-normal in 40.0% of patients with moderate/severe low-corrected calcium group. Magnesium defciency was not associated with hypocalcemia in univariate and multivariate analysis. Conclusion Vitamin D defciency plays a major role in hypocalcemia among hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Inappropriately low/low-normal serum PTH may be a contributing factor in this disorder

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODErn), to generate cause fractions and cause specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NC Ds) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72.5-74.1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 186% (17.9-19.6), and injuries 8.0% (7.7-8.2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22.7% (21.5-23.9), representing an additional 7.61 million (7. 20-8.01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7.9% (7.08.8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 222% (20.0-24.0) and the death rate by 31.8% (30.1-33.3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2.3% (0-5-4-0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13.7% (12.2-15.1) to 57.9 deaths (55.9-59.2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118.0% (88.8-148.6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36.4% (32.2-40.6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33.6% (31.2-36.1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respirator}, infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990 neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of 'leaving no one behind', it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator

High-Resolution Earthquake Local Tomography Beneath the Zagros Simply Folded Belt (SFB): Implications for an Inhomogeneous Low-Velocity Layer and Diapirism in the Upper Crust

Hormuz salt formation is considered the origin of the evaporated salt deposits in the Zagros and its ductile behavior has been known as the reason for the inhomogeneous deformation in the Zagros. However, our knowledge about this formation has been limited to the salt domes on the surface. In our study, local earthquakes recorded by a temporary dense seismological network of 17 stations, deployed in the southern margin of the Zagros Simply Folded Belt (SFB) in southwestern Iran, have been used for seismic imaging. The high-resolution earthquake local tomography revealed the first geophysical evidence about the Hormuz salt layer and its extension at depth. There is an uneven layer located at a depth of 8–12 km as the origin of extruded salt in this region through a shear fault zone and the production of the Dashti Salt Dome at the Kuh-e-Namak Mountain. Based on the obtained results, this layer is characterized by low seismic velocity volumes with significant Vp/Vs ratio variations. The seismic image is also consistent with a major NW-trending NE-dipping reverse fault, probably responsible for the 9 April 2013 Kaki earthquake. At depth of around 4 km, smaller scale high velocity anomalies, characterized by a high Vp/Vs ratio, may be related to the fluid saturated sediments in the uppermost sedimentary layer.ISSN:2333-508

Efficacy of care in Fatemeh Zahra hospital’s ICU wards according to APACHE II score

Background: The prediction of death in intensive care units is done by using scoring systems (eg APACHE II) which assess disease severity. This study was performed in Intensive Care Units (ICUs) of Boushehr&rsquo;s Fatemeh Zahra hospital to evaluate the efficacy of APACH II system and also to compare the observed mortality with the predicted mortality rate and also to that of some creditable centers. Material and Methods: This cross-sectional, descriptive and analytical study was performed on one hundred patients with critical conditions on the day of their admission to the ICU wards. Data were analysed by Chi Square, student T, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, ROC curve and spearman correlation coefficient using SPSS version 13. Results: The mean score in internal medicine ICU (60 patients) was15.45 and in surgery&rsquo;s ICU (40 patients) was 11.1. There was a positive correlation between the acquired score and mortality (p<0.001 and correlation coefficient=0.4). Mortality in our ICUs was more than that of more developed centers with respect to APACHE II score. The observed mortality rate was 31% and the predicted death rate was 19.79%. The area under ROC curve was 0.76 (CI95%=0/65-0/86). There was also a positive correlation between the acquired score and duration of ICU admission (p=0.009 and correlation coefficient=0.262). Conclusion: The APACHE II score is appropriate for predicting mortality in our ICUs. Our observed mortality rate was greater than the predicted death rate, in comparison to some developed centers which show no significant difference. Therfore it appears that we must improve our intensive cares to reduce mortality