73 research outputs found

    Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

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    Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

    Call for emergency action to restore dietary diversity and protect global food systems in times of COVID-19 and beyond: Results from a cross-sectional study in 38 countries

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    Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed the fragility of the global food system, sending shockwaves across countries\u27 societies and economy. This has presented formidable challenges to sustaining a healthy and resilient lifestyle. The objective of this study is to examine the food consumption patterns and assess diet diversity indicators, primarily focusing on the food consumption score (FCS), among households in 38 countries both before and during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: A cross-sectional study with 37 207 participants (mean age: 36.70 ± 14.79, with 77 % women) was conducted in 38 countries through an online survey administered between April and June 2020. The study utilized a pre-tested food frequency questionnaire to explore food consumption patterns both before and during the COVID-19 periods. Additionally, the study computed Food Consumption Score (FCS) as a proxy indicator for assessing the dietary diversity of households. Findings: This quantification of global, regional and national dietary diversity across 38 countries showed an increment in the consumption of all food groups but a drop in the intake of vegetables and in the dietary diversity. The household\u27s food consumption scores indicating dietary diversity varied across regions. It decreased in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, including Lebanon (p \u3c 0.001) and increased in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries including Bahrain (p = 0.003), Egypt (p \u3c 0.001) and United Arab Emirates (p = 0.013). A decline in the household\u27s dietary diversity was observed in Australia (p \u3c 0.001), in South Africa including Uganda (p \u3c 0.001), in Europe including Belgium (p \u3c 0.001), Denmark (p = 0.002), Finland (p \u3c 0.001) and Netherland (p = 0.027) and in South America including Ecuador (p \u3c 0.001), Brazil (p \u3c 0.001), Mexico (p \u3c 0.0001) and Peru (p \u3c 0.001). Middle and older ages [OR = 1.2; 95 % CI = [1.125–1.426] [OR = 2.5; 95 % CI = [1.951–3.064], being a woman [OR = 1.2; 95 % CI = [1.117–1.367], having a high education (p \u3c 0.001), and showing amelioration in food-related behaviors [OR = 1.4; 95 % CI = [1.292–1.709] were all linked to having a higher dietary diversity. Conclusion: The minor to moderate changes in food consumption patterns observed across the 38 countries within relatively short time frames could become lasting, leading to a significant and prolonged reduction in dietary diversity, as demonstrated by our findings

    Global Retinoblastoma Presentation and Analysis by National Income Level.

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    Importance: Early diagnosis of retinoblastoma, the most common intraocular cancer, can save both a child's life and vision. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that many children across the world are diagnosed late. To our knowledge, the clinical presentation of retinoblastoma has never been assessed on a global scale. Objectives: To report the retinoblastoma stage at diagnosis in patients across the world during a single year, to investigate associations between clinical variables and national income level, and to investigate risk factors for advanced disease at diagnosis. Design, Setting, and Participants: A total of 278 retinoblastoma treatment centers were recruited from June 2017 through December 2018 to participate in a cross-sectional analysis of treatment-naive patients with retinoblastoma who were diagnosed in 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age at presentation, proportion of familial history of retinoblastoma, and tumor stage and metastasis. Results: The cohort included 4351 new patients from 153 countries; the median age at diagnosis was 30.5 (interquartile range, 18.3-45.9) months, and 1976 patients (45.4%) were female. Most patients (n = 3685 [84.7%]) were from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Globally, the most common indication for referral was leukocoria (n = 2638 [62.8%]), followed by strabismus (n = 429 [10.2%]) and proptosis (n = 309 [7.4%]). Patients from high-income countries (HICs) were diagnosed at a median age of 14.1 months, with 656 of 666 (98.5%) patients having intraocular retinoblastoma and 2 (0.3%) having metastasis. Patients from low-income countries were diagnosed at a median age of 30.5 months, with 256 of 521 (49.1%) having extraocular retinoblastoma and 94 of 498 (18.9%) having metastasis. Lower national income level was associated with older presentation age, higher proportion of locally advanced disease and distant metastasis, and smaller proportion of familial history of retinoblastoma. Advanced disease at diagnosis was more common in LMICs even after adjusting for age (odds ratio for low-income countries vs upper-middle-income countries and HICs, 17.92 [95% CI, 12.94-24.80], and for lower-middle-income countries vs upper-middle-income countries and HICs, 5.74 [95% CI, 4.30-7.68]). Conclusions and Relevance: This study is estimated to have included more than half of all new retinoblastoma cases worldwide in 2017. Children from LMICs, where the main global retinoblastoma burden lies, presented at an older age with more advanced disease and demonstrated a smaller proportion of familial history of retinoblastoma, likely because many do not reach a childbearing age. Given that retinoblastoma is curable, these data are concerning and mandate intervention at national and international levels. Further studies are needed to investigate factors, other than age at presentation, that may be associated with advanced disease in LMICs

    Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

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    Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.Peer reviewe

    Impact of COVID-19 lockdown on smoking (waterpipe and cigarette) and participants' BMI across various sociodemographic groups in Arab countries in the Mediterranean Region

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    INTRODUCTION: Tobacco smokers are at high risk of developing severe COVID-19. Lockdown was a chosen strategy to deal with the spread of infectious diseases; nonetheless, it influenced people's eating and smoking behaviors. The main objective of this study is to determine the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on smoking (waterpipe and cigarette) behavior and its associations with sociodemographic characteristics and body mass index. METHODS: The data were derived from a large-scale retrospective cross-sectional study using a validated online international survey from 38 countries (n=37207) conducted between 17 April and 25 June 2020. The Eastern Mediterranean Region (WHO-EMR countries) data related to 10 Arabic countries that participated in this survey have been selected for analysis in this study. A total of 12433 participants were included in the analysis of this study, reporting their smoking behavior and their BMI before and during the COVID-19 lockdown. Descriptive and regression analyses were conducted to examine the association between smoking practices and the participant's country of origin, sociodemographic characteristics, and BMI (kg/m2). RESULTS: Overall, the prevalence rate of smoking decreased significantly during the lockdown from 29.8% to 23.5% (p<0.05). The percentage of females who smoke was higher than males among the studied population. The highest smoking prevalence was found in Lebanon (33.2%), and the lowest was in Oman (7.9%). In Egypt, Kuwait, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia, the data showed a significant difference in the education level of smokers before and during the lockdown (p<0.05). Smokers in Lebanon had lower education levels than those in other countries, where the majority of smokers had a Bachelor's degree. The findings show that the BMI rates in Jordan, Lebanon, Oman, and Saudi Arabia significantly increased during the lockdown (p<0.05). The highest percentages of obesity among smokers before the lockdown were in Oman (33.3%), followed by Bahrain (28.4%) and Qatar (26.4%), whereas, during the lockdown, the percentage of obese smokers was highest in Bahrain (32.1%) followed by Qatar (31.3%) and Oman (25%). According to the logistic regression model, the odds ratio of smoking increased during the pandemic, whereas the odds ratio of TV watching decreased. This finding was statistically significant by age, gender, education level, country of residence, and work status. CONCLUSIONS: Although the overall rates of smoking among the studied countries decreased during the lockdown period, we cannot attribute this change in smoking behavior to the lockdown. Smoking cessation services need to anticipate that unexpected disruptions, such as pandemic lockdowns, may be associated with changes in daily tobacco consumption. Public health authorities should promote the adoption of healthy lifestyles to reduce the long-term negative effects of the lockdown

    Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019

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    Background The causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019. Methods We collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends. Findings In 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of −0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = −0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = −0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = −0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = −0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = −0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR. Interpretation The incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate the increasing ASR of rheumatoid arthritis and upsurging new cases of other five IMIDs, respectively. Funding The Global Burden of Disease Study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. The project funded by Scientific Research Fund of Sichuan Academy of Medical Sciences & Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital (2022QN38)

    Travel burden and clinical presentation of retinoblastoma: analysis of 1024 patients from 43 African countries and 518 patients from 40 European countries

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    BACKGROUND: The travel distance from home to a treatment centre, which may impact the stage at diagnosis, has not been investigated for retinoblastoma, the most common childhood eye cancer. We aimed to investigate the travel burden and its impact on clinical presentation in a large sample of patients with retinoblastoma from Africa and Europe. METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis including 518 treatment-naïve patients with retinoblastoma residing in 40 European countries and 1024 treatment-naïve patients with retinoblastoma residing in 43 African countries. RESULTS: Capture rate was 42.2% of expected patients from Africa and 108.8% from Europe. African patients were older (95% CI -12.4 to -5.4, p<0.001), had fewer cases of familial retinoblastoma (95% CI 2.0 to 5.3, p<0.001) and presented with more advanced disease (95% CI 6.0 to 9.8, p<0.001); 43.4% and 15.4% of Africans had extraocular retinoblastoma and distant metastasis at the time of diagnosis, respectively, compared to 2.9% and 1.0% of the Europeans. To reach a retinoblastoma centre, European patients travelled 421.8 km compared to Africans who travelled 185.7 km (p<0.001). On regression analysis, lower-national income level, African residence and older age (p<0.001), but not travel distance (p=0.19), were risk factors for advanced disease. CONCLUSIONS: Fewer than half the expected number of patients with retinoblastoma presented to African referral centres in 2017, suggesting poor awareness or other barriers to access. Despite the relatively shorter distance travelled by African patients, they presented with later-stage disease. Health education about retinoblastoma is needed for carers and health workers in Africa in order to increase capture rate and promote early referral

    The global retinoblastoma outcome study : a prospective, cluster-based analysis of 4064 patients from 149 countries

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    DATA SHARING : The study data will become available online once all analyses are complete.BACKGROUND : Retinoblastoma is the most common intraocular cancer worldwide. There is some evidence to suggest that major differences exist in treatment outcomes for children with retinoblastoma from different regions, but these differences have not been assessed on a global scale. We aimed to report 3-year outcomes for children with retinoblastoma globally and to investigate factors associated with survival. METHODS : We did a prospective cluster-based analysis of treatment-naive patients with retinoblastoma who were diagnosed between Jan 1, 2017, and Dec 31, 2017, then treated and followed up for 3 years. Patients were recruited from 260 specialised treatment centres worldwide. Data were obtained from participating centres on primary and additional treatments, duration of follow-up, metastasis, eye globe salvage, and survival outcome. We analysed time to death and time to enucleation with Cox regression models. FINDINGS : The cohort included 4064 children from 149 countries. The median age at diagnosis was 23·2 months (IQR 11·0–36·5). Extraocular tumour spread (cT4 of the cTNMH classification) at diagnosis was reported in five (0·8%) of 636 children from high-income countries, 55 (5·4%) of 1027 children from upper-middle-income countries, 342 (19·7%) of 1738 children from lower-middle-income countries, and 196 (42·9%) of 457 children from low-income countries. Enucleation surgery was available for all children and intravenous chemotherapy was available for 4014 (98·8%) of 4064 children. The 3-year survival rate was 99·5% (95% CI 98·8–100·0) for children from high-income countries, 91·2% (89·5–93·0) for children from upper-middle-income countries, 80·3% (78·3–82·3) for children from lower-middle-income countries, and 57·3% (52·1-63·0) for children from low-income countries. On analysis, independent factors for worse survival were residence in low-income countries compared to high-income countries (hazard ratio 16·67; 95% CI 4·76–50·00), cT4 advanced tumour compared to cT1 (8·98; 4·44–18·18), and older age at diagnosis in children up to 3 years (1·38 per year; 1·23–1·56). For children aged 3–7 years, the mortality risk decreased slightly (p=0·0104 for the change in slope). INTERPRETATION : This study, estimated to include approximately half of all new retinoblastoma cases worldwide in 2017, shows profound inequity in survival of children depending on the national income level of their country of residence. In high-income countries, death from retinoblastoma is rare, whereas in low-income countries estimated 3-year survival is just over 50%. Although essential treatments are available in nearly all countries, early diagnosis and treatment in low-income countries are key to improving survival outcomes.The Queen Elizabeth Diamond Jubilee Trust and the Wellcome Trust.https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/homeam2023Paediatrics and Child Healt
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