Cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening with primary human papillomavirus testing in Norway

Background: New screening technologies and vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV), the necessary cause of cervical cancer, may impact optimal approaches to prevent cervical cancer. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of alternative screening strategies to inform cervical cancer prevention guidelines in Norway. Methods: We leveraged the primary epidemiologic and economic data from Norway to contextualise a simulation model of HPV-induced cervical cancer. The current cytology-only screening was compared with strategies involving cytology at younger ages and primary HPV-based screening at older ages (31/34+ years), an option being actively deliberated by the Norwegian government. We varied the switch-age, screening interval, and triage strategies for women with HPV-positive results. Uncertainty was evaluated in sensitivity analysis. Results: Current cytology-only screening was less effective and more costly than strategies that involve switching to primary HPV testing in older ages. For unvaccinated women, switching at age 34 years to primary HPV testing every 4 years was optimal given the Norwegian cost-effectiveness threshold ($83 000 per year of life saved). For vaccinated women, a 6-year screening interval was cost-effective. When we considered a wider range of strategies, we found that an earlier switch to HPV testing (at age 31 years) may be preferred. Conclusions: Strategies involving a switch to HPV testing for primary screening in older women is expected to be cost-effective compared with current recommendations in Norway

Leg muscle volume during 30-day 6-degree head-down bed rest with isotonic and isokinetic exercise training

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was used to compare the effect of two modes of lower-extremity exercise training on the mass (volume) of posterior leg group (PLG) muscles (soleus, flexor hallucis longus, tibialis posterior, lateral and medial gastrocnemius, and flexor digitorum longus) on 19 men (ages 32-42 years) subjected to intense dynamic-isotonic (ITE, cycle ergometer, number of subjects (N) = 7), isokinetic (IKE, torque egrometer, N = 7), and no exercise (NOE, N = 5) training for 60 min/day during head-down bed rest (HDBR). Total volume of the PLG muscles decreased (p less than 0.05) similarly: ITE = 4.3 +/- SE 1.6%, IKE = 7.7 +/- 1.6%, and NOE = 6.3 +/- 0.8%; combined volume (N = 19) loss was 6.1 +/- 0.9%. Ranges of volume changes were 2.6% to -9.0% (ITE), -2.1% to -14.9% (IKE), and -3.4% to -8/1% (NOE). Correlation coefficients (r) of muscle volume versus thickness measured with ultrasonography were: ITE r + 0.79 (p less than 0.05), IKE r = 0.27 (not significant (NS)), and NOE r = 0.63 (NS). Leg-muscle volume and thickness were highly correlated (r = 0.79) when plasma volume was maintained during HDBR with ITE. Thus, neither intensive lower extremity ITE nor IKE training influence the normal non-exercised posterior leg muscle atrophy during HDBR. The relationship of muscle volume and thickness may depend on the mode of exercise training associated with the maintenance of plasma volume

Modeling human papillomavirus and cervical cancer in the United States for analyses of screening and vaccination

Background: To provide quantitative insight into current U.S. policy choices for cervical cancer prevention, we developed a model of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer, explicitly incorporating uncertainty about the natural history of disease. Methods: We developed a stochastic microsimulation of cervical cancer that distinguishes different HPV types by their incidence, clearance, persistence, and progression. Input parameter sets were sampled randomly from uniform distributions, and simulations undertaken with each set. Through systematic reviews and formal data synthesis, we established multiple epidemiologic targets for model calibration, including age-specific prevalence of HPV by type, age-specific prevalence of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), HPV type distribution within CIN and cancer, and age-specific cancer incidence. For each set of sampled input parameters, likelihood-based goodness-of-fit (GOF) scores were computed based on comparisons between model-predicted outcomes and calibration targets. Using 50 randomly resampled, good-fitting parameter sets, we assessed the external consistency and face validity of the model, comparing predicted screening outcomes to independent data. To illustrate the advantage of this approach in reflecting parameter uncertainty, we used the 50 sets to project the distribution of health outcomes in U.S. women under different cervical cancer prevention strategies. Results: Approximately 200 good-fitting parameter sets were identified from 1,000,000 simulated sets. Modeled screening outcomes were externally consistent with results from multiple independent data sources. Based on 50 good-fitting parameter sets, the expected reductions in lifetime risk of cancer with annual or biennial screening were 76% (range across 50 sets: 69–82%) and 69% (60–77%), respectively. The reduction from vaccination alone was 75%, although it ranged from 60% to 88%, reflecting considerable parameter uncertainty about the natural history of type-specific HPV infection. The uncertainty surrounding the model-predicted reduction in cervical cancer incidence narrowed substantially when vaccination was combined with every-5-year screening, with a mean reduction of 89% and range of 83% to 95%. Conclusion: We demonstrate an approach to parameterization, calibration and performance evaluation for a U.S. cervical cancer microsimulation model intended to provide qualitative and quantitative inputs into decisions that must be taken before long-term data on vaccination outcomes become available. This approach allows for a rigorous and comprehensive description of policy-relevant uncertainty about health outcomes under alternative cancer prevention strategies. The model provides a tool that can accommodate new information, and can be modified as needed, to iteratively assess the expected benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of different policies in the U.S

Estimated Time for Occurrence of Smoking-Related Consequences among Pregnant and Non-Pregnant Women

Objectives: To study time estimates by women smokers for when smoking-related consequences will occur given continuing or quitting smoking. The relationship of these estimates to pregnancy and intent to quit smoking was also investigated. Methods: Over a two-week period, eighty women, selected to constitute four subgroups formed by pregnant vs. non-pregnant and trying vs. not trying to quit smoking, rated times at which they would expect smoking-related consequences to occur given continuing or quitting smoking. Results: Somatic health consequences were estimated to occur later than consequences related to mood and social relations. All consequences were estimated to occur later given quitting smoking. Pregnancy had an effect on the estimated time that consequences would occur, with pregnant women estimating earlier occurrence of consequences related to mood and social relations than non-pregnant women did. Conclusion: Health messages should stress consequences for somatic health in quitting smoking, since outcomes later in time might have too low a value to exert a positive effect on decisions to quit smoking

Methotrexate and low-dose prednisolone downregulate osteoclast function by decreasing receptor activator of nuclear factor-kappa beta expression in monocytes from patients with early rheumatoid arthritis

Objective Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a systemic, immune-mediated inflammatory disease that ultimately leads to bone erosions and joint destruction. Methotrexate (MTX) slows bone damage but the mechanism by which it acts is still unknown. In this study, we aimed to assess the effect of MTX and low-dose prednisolone (PDN) on circulating osteoclast (OC) precursors and OC differentiation in patients with RA. Methods Patients with RA before and at least 6 months after MTX therapy were analysed and compared with healthy donors. A blood sample was collected in order to assess receptor activator of NF-kappa beta (RANK) ligand surface expression on circulating leucocytes and frequency and phenotype of monocyte subpopulations. Quantification of serum levels of bone turnover markers and cytokines and OC differentiation assays were performed. Results Classical activation markers of monocytes and RANK increased in patients with RA at baseline, compared with control healthy donors, and after MTX and low-dose PDN (MTX+PDN) exposure they decreased to control levels. Although the number of OC was not different between groups, the percentage of resorbed area and the resorbed area per pit reduced after treatment. Serum soluble receptor activator of nuclear factor-kappa (RANKL) levels increased at baseline compared with healthy donors and normalised after therapy. Conclusion Our results suggest that MTX+PDN play an important role in downregulating OC function, which we believe occurs through the decrease in RANK surface expression in monocytes.Peer reviewe

Psychosocial interventions for supporting women to stop smoking in pregnancy

Background: Tobacco smoking remains one of the few preventable factors associated with complications in pregnancy, and has serious long-term implications for women and babies. Smoking in pregnancy is decreasing in high-income countries, but is strongly associated with poverty and is increasing in low- to middle-income countries. Objectives: To assess the effects of smoking cessation interventions during pregnancy on smoking behaviour and perinatal health outcomes. Search methods: In this sixth update, we searched the Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group's Trials Register (13 November 2015), checked reference lists of retrieved studies and contacted trial authors. Selection criteria: Randomised controlled trials, cluster-randomised trials, and quasi-randomised controlled trials of psychosocial smoking cessation interventions during pregnancy. Data collection and analysis: Two review authors independently assessed trials for inclusion and trial quality, and extracted data. Direct comparisons were conducted in RevMan, with meta-regression conducted in STATA 14. Main results: The overall quality of evidence was moderate to high, with reductions in confidence due to imprecision and heterogeneity for some outcomes. One hundred and two trials with 120 intervention arms (studies) were included, with 88 trials (involving over 28,000 women) providing data on smoking abstinence in late pregnancy. Interventions were categorised as counselling, health education, feedback, incentives, social support, exercise and dissemination. In separate comparisons, there is high-quality evidence that counselling increased smoking cessation in late pregnancy compared with usual care (30 studies; average risk ratio (RR) 1.44, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19 to 1.73) and less intensive interventions (18 studies; average RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.47). There was uncertainty whether counselling increased the chance of smoking cessation when provided as one component of a broader maternal health intervention or comparing one type of counselling with another. In studies comparing counselling and usual care (largest comparison), it was unclear whether interventions prevented smoking relapse among women who had stopped smoking spontaneously in early pregnancy. However, a clear effect was seen in smoking abstinence at zero to five months postpartum (11 studies; average RR 1.59, 95% CI 1.26 to 2.01) and 12 to 17 months (two studies, average RR 2.20, 95% CI 1.23 to 3.96), with a borderline effect at six to 11 months (six studies; average RR 1.33, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.77). In other comparisons, the effect was unclear for most secondary outcomes, but sample sizes were small. Evidence suggests a borderline effect of health education compared with usual care (five studies; average RR 1.59, 95% CI 0.99 to 2.55), but the quality was downgraded to moderate as the effect was unclear when compared with less intensive interventions (four studies; average RR 1.20, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.70), alternative interventions (one study; RR 1.88, 95% CI 0.19 to 18.60), or when smoking cessation health education was provided as one component of a broader maternal health intervention. There was evidence feedback increased smoking cessation when compared with usual care and provided in conjunction with other strategies, such as counselling (average RR 4.39, 95% CI 1.89 to 10.21), but the confidence in the quality of evidence was downgraded to moderate as this was based on only two studies and the effect was uncertain when feedback was compared to less intensive interventions (three studies; average RR 1.29, 95% CI 0.75 to 2.20). High-quality evidence suggests incentive-based interventions are effective when compared with an alternative (non-contingent incentive) intervention (four studies; RR 2.36, 95% CI 1.36 to 4.09). However pooled effects were not calculable for comparisons with usual care or less intensive interventions (substantial heterogeneity, I2 = 93%). High-quality evidence suggests the effect is unclear in social support interventions provided by peers (six studies; average RR 1.42, 95% CI 0.98 to 2.07), in a single trial of support provided by partners, or when social support for smoking cessation was provided as part of a broader intervention to improve maternal health. The effect was unclear in single interventions of exercise compared to usual care (RR 1.20, 95% CI 0.72 to 2.01) and dissemination of counselling (RR 1.63, 95% CI 0.62 to 4.32). Importantly, high-quality evidence from pooled results demonstrated that women who received psychosocial interventions had a 17% reduction in infants born with low birthweight, a significantly higher mean birthweight (mean difference (MD) 55.60 g, 95% CI 29.82 to 81.38 g higher) and a 22% reduction in neonatal intensive care admissions. However the difference in preterm births and stillbirths was unclear. There did not appear to be adverse psychological effects from the interventions. The intensity of support women received in both the intervention and comparison groups has increased over time, with higher-intensity interventions more likely to have higher-intensity comparisons, potentially explaining why no clear differences were seen with increasing intervention intensity in meta-regression analyses. Among meta-regression analyses: studies classified as having 'unclear' implementation and unequal baseline characteristics were less effective than other studies. There was no clear difference between trials implemented by researchers (efficacy studies), and those implemented by routine pregnancy staff (effectiveness studies), however there was uncertainty in the effectiveness of counselling in four dissemination trials where the focus on the intervention was at an organisational level. The pooled effects were similar in interventions provided for women classified as having predominantly low socio-economic status, compared to other women. The effect was significant in interventions among women from ethnic minority groups; however not among indigenous women. There were similar effect sizes in trials with biochemically validated smoking abstinence and those with self-reported abstinence. It was unclear whether incorporating use of self-help manuals or telephone support increased the effectiveness of interventions. Authors' conclusions: Psychosocial interventions to support women to stop smoking in pregnancy can increase the proportion of women who stop smoking in late pregnancy and the proportion of infants born low birthweight. Counselling, feedback and incentives appear to be effective, however the characteristics and context of the interventions should be carefully considered. The effect of health education and social support is less clear. New trials have been published during the preparation of this review and will be included in the next update