Modifiable causes of premature death in middle-age in Western Europe: results from the EPIC cohort study

BACKGROUND: Life expectancy is increasing in Europe, yet a substantial proportion of adults still die prematurely before the age of 70 years. We sought to estimate the joint and relative contributions of tobacco smoking, hypertension, obesity, physical inactivity, alcohol and poor diet towards risk of premature death. METHODS: We analysed data from 264,906 European adults from the EPIC prospective cohort study, aged between 40 and 70 years at the time of recruitment. Flexible parametric survival models were used to model risk of death conditional on risk factors, and survival functions and attributable fractions (AF) for deaths prior to age 70 years were calculated based on the fitted models. RESULTS: We identified 11,930 deaths which occurred before the age of 70. The AF for premature mortality for smoking was 31 % (95 % confidence interval (CI), 31–32 %) and 14 % (95 % CI, 12–16 %) for poor diet. Important contributions were also observed for overweight and obesity measured by waist-hip ratio (10 %; 95 % CI, 8–12 %) and high blood pressure (9 %; 95 % CI, 7–11 %). AFs for physical inactivity and excessive alcohol intake were 7 % and 4 %, respectively. Collectively, the AF for all six risk factors was 57 % (95 % CI, 55–59 %), being 35 % (95 % CI, 32–37 %) among never smokers and 74 % (95 % CI, 73–75 %) among current smokers. CONCLUSIONS: While smoking remains the predominant risk factor for premature death in Europe, poor diet, overweight and obesity, hypertension, physical inactivity, and excessive alcohol consumption also contribute substantially. Any attempt to minimise premature deaths will ultimately require all six factors to be addressed.This work was supported by the French Social Affairs & Health Ministry, Department of Health (Direction Générale de la Santé). The work undertaken by David C Muller for this project was performed during the tenure of an IARC-Australia fellowship supported by Cancer Council Australia. Elio Riboli was supported by the Imperial College Biomedical Research Centre funded by the National Institute of Health Research of UK. The coordination of EPIC is financially supported by the European Commission (DG-SANCO) and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The national cohorts are supported by Danish Cancer Society (Denmark); Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Générale de l’Education Nationale, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) (France); Deutsche Krebshilfe, Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum and Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany); the Hellenic Health Foundation (Greece); Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro-AIRC-Italy and National Research Council (Italy); Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Statistics Netherlands (The Netherlands); Nordic Centre of Excellence programme on Food, Nutrition and Health. (Norway); Health Research Fund (FIS), PI13/00061 to Granada, Regional Governments of Andalucía, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia (no. 6236) and Navarra, ISCIII RETIC (RD06/0020) (Spain); Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Scientific Council and County Councils of Skåne and Västerbotten (Sweden); Cancer Research UK (14136 to EPIC-Norfolk; C570/A16491 to EPIC-Oxford), Medical Research Council (1000143 to EPIC-Norfolk) (United Kingdom)

Worldwide trends in body-mass index, underweight, overweight, and obesity from 1975 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies in 128·9 million children, adolescents, and adults.

BACKGROUND: Underweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults. METHODS: We pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5-19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5-19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity). FINDINGS: Regional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (-0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval -0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69-1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64-1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (-0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50-1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4-1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8-6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5-1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7-9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0-12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8-10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4-19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3-14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7-29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5-38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44-117) million girls and 117 (70-178) million boys worldwide were moderately or severely underweight. In the same year, 50 (24-89) million girls and 74 (39-125) million boys worldwide were obese. INTERPRETATION: The rising trends in children's and adolescents' BMI have plateaued in many high-income countries, albeit at high levels, but have accelerated in parts of Asia, with trends no longer correlated with those of adults. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants

Background Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. Methods We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. Findings We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6–17·9) to 9·7% (8·3–11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8–29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9–29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4–4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7–12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1–7·8) to 14·9% (13·6–16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0–2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4–5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46–0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3–1·9) in women. Interpretation If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia

A century of trends in adult human height

Abstract Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries

High-quality surface passivation obtained by high-rate deposited silicon nitride, silicon dioxide and amorphous silicon using the versatile expanding thermal plasma technique

The expanding thermal plasma (ETP) is a novel plasma technique currently used by several solar cell manufacturers for the deposition of silicon nitride antireflection coatings on (multi-) crystalline silicon solar cells. In this paper we will show that the ETP technique is versatile and can be used for the deposition of silicon nitride, silicon dioxide and hydrogenated amorphous silicon with a good level of surface passivation. In this way the ETP technique can meet the future PV demands with respect to the decrease in wafer thickness and the use of n-type material that requires good electrical and optical quality thin films at both the front and the back side of the solar cel

High-rate deposition of silicon nitride and silicon oxide films for surface passivation and (anti)reflection coating applications

In order to increase the cost-effectiveness of crystalline silicon solar cells, surface passivation and internal reflection at the back surface will become increasingly important. To keep processing times sufficiently short, it would be favorable if high-rate PECVD layers could satisfy both means. In this paper we will present that both high quality silicon nitride films and silicon oxide films can be deposited by means of the expanding thermal plasma technique which is employed in the commercially available DEPx system of OTB Solar. Consequently, both the front and back surface of a high-efficiency solar cell can be optimized while keeping processing times sufficiently low

Atomic hydrogen induced defect kinetics in hydrogenated amorphous silicon : an in situ real time study

Organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs, both small molecule and polymer LEDs) require excellent gas and moisture permeation barrier layers to increase their lifetime. The quality of the barrier layer is ultimately controlled by the presence of defects in the layer. Although a barrier layer may be intrinsically excellent (water vapor transmission rate, WVTR = 10-6 g·m-2·day-1) the protected device may fail in the presence of defects that lead to preferential diffusion pathways for H2O (e.g., defects caused by particles from the environment and/or production process). The state-of-the-art barrier coatings are micrometer-thick multi-layer structure, in which organic interlayers are alternated with inorganic barrier layers with the purpose of decoupling the above-mentioned defects. Recently, atomic layer deposition (ALD) has been successfully tested for the deposition of very thin (&lt;50 nm) single layer permeation barriers on pristine polymer substrates [1,2], showing the potential of this highly uniform and conformal deposition technique in the field of moisture permeation barriers. In this contribution the encapsulation of OLEDs by plasma-assisted ALD of thin (20-40 nm) Al2O3 layers is addressed. The layers are synthesized at room temperature by sequentially exposing the substrate to Al(CH3)3 vapor and a remote inductively coupled O2 plasma in Oxford Instruments FlexALTM and OpALTM reactors. The intrinsic quality of the deposited ALD layers was determined by monitoring the oxidation of a Ca film encapsulated by the Al2O3 film: WVTR values as low as 2·10-6 g·m-2·day-1 have been measured. The potential of ALD layers in encapsulating OLEDs, and therefore in successfully covering the defects present on the device, has been investigated by means of electroluminescence measurements of polymer-LEDs (effective emitting area of 5.8 cm2). The black spot density and area growth were followed as a function of the time under standard conditions of 20°C and 50% relative humidity. Within a 500 h test ALD-encapsulated OLEDs show approximately half the black spot density compared to devices encapsulated by plasma deposited a-SiNx:H (300 nm thick). The black spot density is further reduced by combining the a-SiNx:H and ALD Al2O3 layers. These results point towards a very promising application of ALD Al2O3 layers in the field of OLED encapsulation and will be interpreted in terms of possible mechanisms related to film growth in multi-layer structures

Populatie attributieve risico&apos;s

Dit rapport gaat over populatie attributieve risico's (PAR's) die de bijdrage van verschillende risicofactoren (leefstijlfactoren, zoals roken, alcoholconsumptie, lichamelijke activiteit, en voeding, alsmede biologische factoren, zoals totaal serum cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, bloeddruk, glucosetoleratie, en lichaamsgewicht naar lengte) aan mortaliteit ten gevolge van een aantal ziekten (coronaire hartziekten, beroerte, CARA, diabetes, en sommige vormen van kanker) kwantificeren. Relatieve risico's en prevalenties van risicofactoren zijn nodig om PAR's te berekenen. Relatieve risico's zijn ontleend aan de internationale literatuur en prevalenties van risicofactoren (voornamelijk in de leeftijdsklasse van 20-59 jaar) zijn ontleend aan het MONITORING project 1987-1991. In hoofdstuk twee worden belangrijke aannamen en problemen voor het berekenen van PAR's en PAR-achtige maten uiteengezet. Hoofdstuk drie bevat een beschrijving van PAR berekeningen voor een aantal determinanten, later samengevat in hoofdstuk vier vanuit het perspectief van zowel ziekten als determinanten. PAR's voor individuele determinanten varieerden van 10 tot 90%. Vanuit volksgezondheidsperspectief levert ingrijpen in een determinant met een matige tot grote invloed op een of vaak voorkomende ziekten, meer winst op dan interventie op een determinant met een grote invloed op een betrekkelijk zeldzame ziekte. Het roken van sigaretten blijkt het grootste gezondheidsverlies te bewerkstelligen: de prevalentie van roken is in Nederland hoog (40% van de mannen en vrouwen van 20-59 jaar). Het roken van sigaretten beinvloedt de mortaliteit van een aantal indicatoren (longkanker, keelkanker, slokdarmkanker, coronaire hartziekten, beroerte, en CARA). Coronaire hartziekten heeft het grootste aantal determinanten waarvoor PAR's konden worden berekend. De algemene conclusie is dat er voor genoemde gezondheidsproblemen in Nederland, althans theoretisch, nog een aanzienlijke gezondheidswinst is te boeken. Aangezien een groot gedeelte van de risicofactoren bestaat uit leefstijlfactoren, zijn er belangrijke individuele en collectieve keuzeproblemen met een verdere verbetering van de volksgezondheid gemoeid. De PAR's berekend voor individuele determinanten zijn een vereenvoudiging van de werkelijkheid, omdat interacties tussen determinanten niet in de beschouwing zijn opgenomen. Wiskundige modellen worden thans ontworpen om deze interacties wel in de beschouwing te betrekken. Ook zal meer aandacht worden besteed aan gezondheidswinst te behalen op hoge leeftijd.In this report population-attributable risks (PARs) are reported, which quantify the contribution of several determinants (lifestyle factors such as smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity and dietary factors, as well as biological risk factors such as total serum cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, blood pressure, glucose tolerance and body mass index) to mortality from a number of chronic diseases (coronary heart disease, stroke, COPD, diabetes and some forms of cancer). Relative risks and prevalences of risk factors are needed for calculations of PAR's. Relative risks were taken from the international literature and risk factor prevalences (mainly for the age range 20-59 years) were derived from the 1987-1991 Dutch Monitoring Project on Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors. Some important assumptions and difficulties in calculating and interpreting the PAR's and PAR like measures are summarized in chapter 2. Chapter 3 contains a description of PAR calculations for a series of determinants, later summarized (chapter 4) from the viewpoints of both diseases and determinants. PAR's for individual determinants ranged from 10 to 90 percent. From a Public Health point of view, intervention in a determinant which has a moderately strong influence one or more frequently occurring diseases, will lead to more gain in health than intervention in a determinant which has a strong influence on a rare disease. From the results it is clear, that cigarette smoking is the determinant causing the greatest health loss: the prevalence of cigarette smoking is still high (about 40 percent in men and women aged 20-59 years) in the Netherlands. Cigarette smoking influences mortality from a number of indicators (cancer of the lung, larynx, oral cavity and oesophagus, coronary heart disease, stroke and chronic respiratory disorders). Coronary heart disease has the largest number of determinants for which it was possible to calculate PARs. The general conclusion is that for the health problems mentioned in the Netherlands a substantial health gain is at least theoretically possible. As a large part of these risk factors are made up of life style factors there are important individual and collective choices involved in trying to further improve the health status of the Netherlands. The PARs calculated here for the individual determinants are a simplification of reality, because interactions between determinants have not been taken into consideration. Mathematical models are now being constructed which take these interactions into account. In addition, more attention will have to be paid to the health gains that may be achieved in old age.VW

Populatie attributieve risico's

In this report population-attributable risks (PARs) are reported, which quantify the contribution of several determinants (lifestyle factors such as smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity and dietary factors, as well as biological risk factors such as total serum cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, blood pressure, glucose tolerance and body mass index) to mortality from a number of chronic diseases (coronary heart disease, stroke, COPD, diabetes and some forms of cancer). Relative risks and prevalences of risk factors are needed for calculations of PAR's. Relative risks were taken from the international literature and risk factor prevalences (mainly for the age range 20-59 years) were derived from the 1987-1991 Dutch Monitoring Project on Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors. Some important assumptions and difficulties in calculating and interpreting the PAR's and PAR like measures are summarized in chapter 2. Chapter 3 contains a description of PAR calculations for a series of determinants, later summarized (chapter 4) from the viewpoints of both diseases and determinants. PAR's for individual determinants ranged from 10 to 90 percent. From a Public Health point of view, intervention in a determinant which has a moderately strong influence one or more frequently occurring diseases, will lead to more gain in health than intervention in a determinant which has a strong influence on a rare disease. From the results it is clear, that cigarette smoking is the determinant causing the greatest health loss: the prevalence of cigarette smoking is still high (about 40 percent in men and women aged 20-59 years) in the Netherlands. Cigarette smoking influences mortality from a number of indicators (cancer of the lung, larynx, oral cavity and oesophagus, coronary heart disease, stroke and chronic respiratory disorders). Coronary heart disease has the largest number of determinants for which it was possible to calculate PARs. The general conclusion is that for the health problems mentioned in the Netherlands a substantial health gain is at least theoretically possible. As a large part of these risk factors are made up of life style factors there are important individual and collective choices involved in trying to further improve the health status of the Netherlands. The PARs calculated here for the individual determinants are a simplification of reality, because interactions between determinants have not been taken into consideration. Mathematical models are now being constructed which take these interactions into account. In addition, more attention will have to be paid to the health gains that may be achieved in old age.Dit rapport gaat over populatie attributieve risico's (PAR's) die de bijdrage van verschillende risicofactoren (leefstijlfactoren, zoals roken, alcoholconsumptie, lichamelijke activiteit, en voeding, alsmede biologische factoren, zoals totaal serum cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, bloeddruk, glucosetoleratie, en lichaamsgewicht naar lengte) aan mortaliteit ten gevolge van een aantal ziekten (coronaire hartziekten, beroerte, CARA, diabetes, en sommige vormen van kanker) kwantificeren. Relatieve risico's en prevalenties van risicofactoren zijn nodig om PAR's te berekenen. Relatieve risico's zijn ontleend aan de internationale literatuur en prevalenties van risicofactoren (voornamelijk in de leeftijdsklasse van 20-59 jaar) zijn ontleend aan het MONITORING project 1987-1991. In hoofdstuk twee worden belangrijke aannamen en problemen voor het berekenen van PAR's en PAR-achtige maten uiteengezet. Hoofdstuk drie bevat een beschrijving van PAR berekeningen voor een aantal determinanten, later samengevat in hoofdstuk vier vanuit het perspectief van zowel ziekten als determinanten. PAR's voor individuele determinanten varieerden van 10 tot 90%. Vanuit volksgezondheidsperspectief levert ingrijpen in een determinant met een matige tot grote invloed op een of vaak voorkomende ziekten, meer winst op dan interventie op een determinant met een grote invloed op een betrekkelijk zeldzame ziekte. Het roken van sigaretten blijkt het grootste gezondheidsverlies te bewerkstelligen: de prevalentie van roken is in Nederland hoog (40% van de mannen en vrouwen van 20-59 jaar). Het roken van sigaretten beinvloedt de mortaliteit van een aantal indicatoren (longkanker, keelkanker, slokdarmkanker, coronaire hartziekten, beroerte, en CARA). Coronaire hartziekten heeft het grootste aantal determinanten waarvoor PAR's konden worden berekend. De algemene conclusie is dat er voor genoemde gezondheidsproblemen in Nederland, althans theoretisch, nog een aanzienlijke gezondheidswinst is te boeken. Aangezien een groot gedeelte van de risicofactoren bestaat uit leefstijlfactoren, zijn er belangrijke individuele en collectieve keuzeproblemen met een verdere verbetering van de volksgezondheid gemoeid. De PAR's berekend voor individuele determinanten zijn een vereenvoudiging van de werkelijkheid, omdat interacties tussen determinanten niet in de beschouwing zijn opgenomen. Wiskundige modellen worden thans ontworpen om deze interacties wel in de beschouwing te betrekken. Ook zal meer aandacht worden besteed aan gezondheidswinst te behalen op hoge leeftijd