Responses of the Polish economy to demand and supply shocks under alternative fiscal policy rules

Recent experiences of many countries during the crisis restored the important dilemma that fiscal policymakers face of how to alleviate the demand contraction while ensuring sustainability of public finances in the long-term.\\ In this paper we study the consequences of the demand and supply shocks for Poland under alternative policy scenarios. Using a macroeconometric model of the Polish economy, we analyse the response of the economy to shocks under several fiscal policy rules. We try to answer the questions which fiscal rule works best in terms of public finance sustainability and business cycle fluctuations stabilization while taking into account the source of shocks to the economy.\\ We found that structural balance rule and expenditure rule act counter-cyclically in the whole simulation period, but at the same time the pace at which they stabilize public debt is quite slow.fiscal rules, model simulations, demand shocks, supply shocks

Asthma exacerbation trajectories and their predictors in children with incident asthma.

BACKGROUND: Asthma exacerbation trajectories in children after incident asthma diagnosis are understudied. OBJECTIVE: To identify trajectories of asthma exacerbation and predictors of these trajectories in children with incident asthma. METHODS: Children from the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth, Canada, with incident asthma were followed-up for up to 12 years during childhood. Latent class growth modeling was used to identify distinct asthma exacerbation trajectory groups. Multinomial logistic regression was performed to identify predictors of trajectory group membership. RESULTS: The mean age at asthma diagnosis among 403 children was 5.9 years. Three distinct trajectories were identified: low increasing (21.3% of children), medium decreasing (45.8% of children), and high decreasing (32.8% of children). Asthma attack probability increased gradually after diagnosis in low increasing group, decreased from moderate level after diagnosis to almost zero probability at the end of follow-up in the medium decreasing group, and decreased after diagnosis but remained higher in the high decreasing group than the other 2 groups at 12 years after diagnosis. Children having more siblings at home were more likely to belong to the medium decreasing and high decreasing trajectory groups, whereas children older at asthma diagnosis were less likely to belong to the medium decreasing and high decreasing trajectory groups than the low increasing trajectory group. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that children with incident asthma follow 3 distinct trajectories of asthma exacerbations after asthma diagnosis. The trajectory group with initial moderate exacerbation probability has better long-term prognosis

The structural model of the Lodz region - scenarios of regional development

. Prospects for regional development are the subject of wide interest to the authorities and the academic community. This interest is reflected LORIS VISION project, including the regional technology foresight. The part of the project was to built a macroeconometric structural model of the Lodź region "Loris", which to- gether with the adapted model of the Polish economy W8-LW provides a tool in economic analysis. In this paper the structure of the model and the results of eco- nomic analysis for the Lodz region resulting from the assumptions and solutions of the models are prezented. An attempt to quantify the impact of changing external conditions and remedial actions for the development of the Polish economy and the region. Accepted assumptions resulted directly from the earlier rounds of Delphi surveys conducted within the project Loris Vision. It has been shown that a change in assumptions and taking action locally obsen/ed so far go beyond the framework may lead to changes in growth rates and achieve different levels of development of the region, increased its share in domestic production or growth of population wealth

Crystal Model for the Closed Topological Vertex Geometry

The topological string partition function for the neighbourhood of three spheres meeting at one point in a Calabi-Yau threefold, the so-called 'closed topological vertex', is shown to be reproduced by a simple Calabi-Yau crystal model which counts plane partitions inside a cube of finite size. The model is derived from the topological vertex formalism. This derivation can be understood as 'moving off the strip' in the terminology of hep-th/0410174, and offers a possibility to simplify topological vertex techniques to a broader class of Calabi-Yau geometries. To support this claim a flop transition of the closed topological vertex is considered and the partition function of the resulting geometry is computed in agreement with general expectations.Comment: 26 pages, 7 figures; references added, classical part of flop analysis corrected and expande

Large expert-curated database for benchmarking document similarity detection in biomedical literature search

Document recommendation systems for locating relevant literature have mostly relied on methods developed a decade ago. This is largely due to the lack of a large offline gold-standard benchmark of relevant documents that cover a variety of research fields such that newly developed literature search techniques can be compared, improved and translated into practice. To overcome this bottleneck, we have established the RElevant LIterature SearcH consortium consisting of more than 1500 scientists from 84 countries, who have collectively annotated the relevance of over 180 000 PubMed-listed articles with regard to their respective seed (input) article/s. The majority of annotations were contributed by highly experienced, original authors of the seed articles. The collected data cover 76% of all unique PubMed Medical Subject Headings descriptors. No systematic biases were observed across different experience levels, research fields or time spent on annotations. More importantly, annotations of the same document pairs contributed by different scientists were highly concordant. We further show that the three representative baseline methods used to generate recommended articles for evaluation (Okapi Best Matching 25, Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency and PubMed Related Articles) had similar overall performances. Additionally, we found that these methods each tend to produce distinct collections of recommended articles, suggesting that a hybrid method may be required to completely capture all relevant articles. The established database server located at https://relishdb.ict.griffith.edu.au is freely available for the downloading of annotation data and the blind testing of new methods. We expect that this benchmark will be useful for stimulating the development of new powerful techniques for title and title/abstract-based search engines for relevant articles in biomedical research.Peer reviewe

Asymmetric impact of changes the WIBOR interest rate on commercial banks interest rates and the Polish economy

Gospodarka Polski narażona jest na oddziaływanie wielu egzogenicznych szoków, co jest cechą charakterystyczną otwartych gospodarek o małej i średniej wielkości. Wpływ zaburzeń ma charakter asymetryczny, co wymaga zastosowania odpowiednich procedur, umożliwiających testowanie hipotez ekonomicznych. W artykule analizowane są skutki zmiany stopy procentowej WIBOR. Wprowadzony impuls powoduje uruchomienie sprzężenia inflacyjnego i w konsekwencji reakcję całego systemu gospodarczego. W związku z tym odpowiednie analizy muszą być przeprowadzone na kompletnym modelu makroekonometrycznym. W tej roli został wykorzystany miesięczny model WM-1. Wyniki analiz symulacyjnych wskazują na zróżnicowanie oferty banków komercyjnych w zależności od kierunku zmiany. Pomimo iż impuls płynie ze strony sfery nominalnej, zmiany dotyczą także procesów produkcji, inwestycji i zatrudnienia, a więc sfery realnej, i utrzymują się przez okres znacznie dłuższy niż okres oddziaływania samego impulsu.The Polish economy is influenced by many exogenous shocks, which is characteristic of small and medium-sized open economies. The impact of these impulses is asymmetric what requires the application of appropriate procedures to test economic hypotheses. The article analyze the effects of changes in the WIBOR interest rate. The impulse initiates the inflation loop and consequently the reaction of the whole economic system. Therefore the relevant analysis must be done on a complete macroeconometric model such as monthly model of the Polish economy WM-1. The results of the simulation analyzes shows the variability of interest rates offered by commercial banks depends on the direction of change. Although the initial impulse directly affects the nominal economy its impact influences the real economy as well (production, investment or employment)

The Asymmetric Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on the Polish Economy

The article analyzes the effects of the appreciation and depreciation of the Polish zloty against the euro. The author argues that sensitivity to the impact of exogenous shocks is a characteristic feature of small and medium-sized open economies, which also include Poland. According to Karp, exchange rate fluctuations are disturbances that have a strong impact on foreign trade, the price level and the entire economic system. Due to the complexity of the relationships between economic variables, an appropriate analysis must be conducted on a complete macroeconometric model, the author says. Analysis was conducted on a monthly model of the Polish economy (WM-1) that also contained asymmetric equations based on the threshold-error correction model (TECM). In two simulations, symmetric exogenous shocks – persistent for three months and directly causing the Polish zloty to either appreciate or depreciate – were assumed. These impulses set off the exchange rate multiplier effect and consequently the reaction of the whole economic system. The responses of the variables are asymmetric depending on the direction of the impulse, the author says. The simulation analysis shows stronger reactions when the zloty appreciates than when it depreciates. Although the initial impulse directly affects the “nominal” economy, its impact also influences the real economy by affecting production, investment and employment, the author concludes.Celem artykułu jest analiza odmienności reakcji gospodarki Polski w zależności od zmian kursu walutowego wywołujących aprecjację lub deprecjację złotego względem euro. Cechą charakterystyczną gospodarek otwartych o małej i średniej wielkości, do których zalicza się również Polska, jest duża wrażliwość na oddziaływanie wielu egzogenicznych szoku. Wahania kursu walutowego są impulsami, które silnie oddziałują na wymianę zagraniczną, poziom cen i funkcjonowanie całego systemu ekonomicznego. Ze względu na złożoność relacji miedzy zmiennymi ekonomicznymi, przeprowadzenie właściwych analiz symulacyjnych możliwe jest jedynie na kompletnym modelu makroekonometrycznym. W tej roli wykorzystany został miesięczny model WM-1, który w swej strukturze zawiera również asymetryczne równania postaci TECM. W dwóch symulacjach przyjęto założenie o utrzymujących się przez trzy miesiące egzogenicznych symetrycznych szokach wpływających bezpośrednio na aprecjację i deprecjację kursu walutowego. Wprowadzone zaburzenia powodują uruchomienie mnożnika kursowego i w konsekwencji reakcję wszystkich zmiennych makroekonomicznych. W zależności od kierunku impulsu reakcja systemu ma charakter asymetryczny, zarówno pod względem siły reakcji, jak i szybkości powrotu do rozwiązania bazowego. Wyniki analiz symulacyjnych wskazują na silniejszą reakcję powodowaną aprecjacją złotego niż deprecjacją. Wprowadzone zaburzenie płynące bezpośrednio ze sfery nominalnej pobudza także zmiany procesów produkcji, inwestycji i zatrudnienia, a więc całej sfery realnej, i utrzymują się przez okres znacznie dłuższy niż okres oddziaływania samego impulsu

Novation

Odnowienie zobowiązania stanowi instytucję uregulowaną w art. 506 polskiego Kodeksu cywilnego, zgodnie z którą, dłużnik, w celu umorzenia zobowiązania, zobowiązuje się za zgodą wierzyciela spełnić inne świadczenie albo nawet to samo świadczenie, lecz z innej podstawy prawnej. Na mocy tej czynności wieź prawna łączącą strony wygasa, zaś dłużnik staje się zobowiązany do wykonania nowych obowiązków zgodnie z treścią powstałego stosunku. Podstawowym celem niniejszej pracy jest dokładna analiza przesłanek odnowienia, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem czynników, które mają decydujące znaczenie przy kwalifikacji tej czynności prawnej. Wskazane badanie powinno ujawnić charakter prawny oraz specyfikę nowacji, co umożliwi odróżnienie jej od o podobnej funkcji. Intencją tego opracowania jest również jednoznaczne określenie skutków odnowienia, mając na uwadze odmienności związane z różnymi postaciami tej instytucji.A novation is a contract regulated in article 506 of the Polish Civil Code, according to which, for the purpose of cancelling an obligation, a debtor commits, with the creditor's consent, to make another performance or even the same performance but on different legal grounds. By virtue of relevant act in law, the existing obligation expires, while the debtor becomes obliged to perform in accordance with the content of the newly established obligation. The main purpose of this work is to thoroughly analyze the premises of the novation, with particular emphasis on factors that are decisive in the qualification of this legal act. This study should disclose the legal nature and specificity of the novation, which will make it possible to distinguish it from contracts with a similar function. The intention of this study is also the determination of legal consequences of the novation, having regard to the differences associated with distinct forms of this contract