Prediction of default probability for construction firms using the logit model

Recently, the high incidence of construction firm bankruptcies has underlined the importance of forecasting defaults in the construction industry. Early warning systems need to be developed to prevent or avert contractor default; additionally, this evaluation result could facilitate the selection of firms as collaboration or investment partners. Financial statements are considered one of the key basic evaluation tools for demonstrating firm strength. This investigation provides a framework for assessing the probability of construction contractor default based on financial ratios by using the Logit model. A total of 21 ratios, gathered into five financial groups, are utilized to perform univariate logit analysis and multivariate logit analysis for assessing contractor default probability. The empirical results indicate that using multivariate analysis by adding market factor to the liquidity, leverage, activity and profitability factors can increase the accuracy of default prediction more than using only four financial factors. While considering the market factor in the multivariate Logit model, clear incremental prediction performance appears in 1-year evaluation. This study thus suggests that the market factor comprises important information to increase the prediction performance of the model when applied to construction contractors, particularly in short-term evaluation

Measurement of the running of the QED coupling in small-angle Bhabha scattering at LEP

Using the OPAL detector at LEP, the running of the effective QED coupling alpha(t) is measured for space-like momentum transfer from the angular distribution of small-angle Bhabha scattering. In an almost ideal QED framework, with very favourable experimental conditions, we obtain: Delta alpha(-6.07GeV^2) - Delta alpha(-1.81GeV^2) = (440 pm 58 pm 43 pm 30) X 10^-5, where the first error is statistical, the second is the experimental systematic and the third is the theoretical uncertainty. This agrees with current evaluations of alpha(t).The null hypothesis that alpha remains constant within the above interval of -t is excluded with a significance above 5sigma. Similarly, our results are inconsistent at the level of 3sigma with the hypothesis that only leptonic loops contribute to the running. This is currently the most significant direct measurment where the running alpha(t) is probed differentially within the measured t range.Comment: 43 pages, 12 figures, Submitted to Euro. Phys. J.

Biological Properties of Acidic Cosmetic Water from Seawater

This current work was to investigate the biological effects of acidic cosmetic water (ACW) on various biological assays. ACW was isolated from seawater and demonstrated several bio-functions at various concentration ranges. ACW showed a satisfactory effect against Staphylococcus aureus, which reduced 90% of bacterial growth after a 5-second exposure. We used cultured human peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) to test the properties of ACW in inflammatory cytokine release, and it did not induce inflammatory cytokine release from un-stimulated, normal PBMCs. However, ACW was able to inhibit bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-induced inflammatory cytokine TNF-α released from PBMCs, showing an anti-inflammation potential. Furthermore, ACW did not stimulate the rat basophilic leukemia cell (RBL-2H3) related allergy response on de-granulation. Our data presented ACW with a strong anti-oxidative ability in a superoxide anion radical scavenging assay. In mass spectrometry information, magnesium and zinc ions demonstrated bio-functional detections for anti-inflammation as well as other metal ions such as potassium and calcium were observed. ACW also had minor tyrosinase and melanin decreasing activities in human epidermal melanocytes (HEMn-MP) without apparent cytotoxicity. In addition, the cell proliferation assay illustrated anti-growth and anti-migration effects of ACW on human skin melanoma cells (A375.S2) indicating that it exerted the anti-cancer potential against skin cancer. The results obtained from biological assays showed that ACW possessed multiple bioactivities, including anti-microorganism, anti-inflammation, allergy-free, antioxidant, anti-melanin and anticancer properties. To our knowledge, this was the first report presenting these bioactivities on ACW

Observation of associated near-side and away-side long-range correlations in √sNN=5.02 TeV proton-lead collisions with the ATLAS detector

Two-particle correlations in relative azimuthal angle (Δϕ) and pseudorapidity (Δη) are measured in √sNN=5.02  TeV p+Pb collisions using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements are performed using approximately 1  μb-1 of data as a function of transverse momentum (pT) and the transverse energy (ΣETPb) summed over 3.1<η<4.9 in the direction of the Pb beam. The correlation function, constructed from charged particles, exhibits a long-range (2<|Δη|<5) “near-side” (Δϕ∼0) correlation that grows rapidly with increasing ΣETPb. A long-range “away-side” (Δϕ∼π) correlation, obtained by subtracting the expected contributions from recoiling dijets and other sources estimated using events with small ΣETPb, is found to match the near-side correlation in magnitude, shape (in Δη and Δϕ) and ΣETPb dependence. The resultant Δϕ correlation is approximately symmetric about π/2, and is consistent with a dominant cos⁡2Δϕ modulation for all ΣETPb ranges and particle pT

Measurement of the cross-section of high transverse momentum vector bosons reconstructed as single jets and studies of jet substructure in pp collisions at √s = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents a measurement of the cross-section for high transverse momentum W and Z bosons produced in pp collisions and decaying to all-hadronic final states. The data used in the analysis were recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7 TeV;{\rm Te}{\rm V}$and correspond to an integrated luminosity of$4.6\;{\rm f}{{{\rm b}}^{-1}}$. The measurement is performed by reconstructing the boosted W or Z bosons in single jets. The reconstructed jet mass is used to identify the W and Z bosons, and a jet substructure method based on energy cluster information in the jet centre-of-mass frame is used to suppress the large multi-jet background. The cross-section for events with a hadronically decaying W or Z boson, with transverse momentum${{p}_{{\rm T}}}\gt 320\;{\rm Ge}{\rm V}$and pseudorapidity$|\eta |\lt 1.9$, is measured to be${{\sigma }_{W+Z}}=8.5\pm 1.7$ pb and is compared to next-to-leading-order calculations. The selected events are further used to study jet grooming techniques

Search for direct pair production of the top squark in all-hadronic final states in proton-proton collisions at s√=8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The results of a search for direct pair production of the scalar partner to the top quark using an integrated luminosity of 20.1fb−1 of proton–proton collision data at √s = 8 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC are reported. The top squark is assumed to decay via t˜→tχ˜01 or t˜→ bχ˜±1 →bW(∗)χ˜01 , where χ˜01 (χ˜±1 ) denotes the lightest neutralino (chargino) in supersymmetric models. The search targets a fully-hadronic final state in events with four or more jets and large missing transverse momentum. No significant excess over the Standard Model background prediction is observed, and exclusion limits are reported in terms of the top squark and neutralino masses and as a function of the branching fraction of t˜ → tχ˜01 . For a branching fraction of 100%, top squark masses in the range 270–645 GeV are excluded for χ˜01 masses below 30 GeV. For a branching fraction of 50% to either t˜ → tχ˜01 or t˜ → bχ˜±1 , and assuming the χ˜±1 mass to be twice the χ˜01 mass, top squark masses in the range 250–550 GeV are excluded for χ˜01 masses below 60 GeV

Search for pair-produced long-lived neutral particles decaying to jets in the ATLAS hadronic calorimeter in ppcollisions at √s=8TeV

The ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN is used to search for the decay of a scalar boson to a pair of long-lived particles, neutral under the Standard Model gauge group, in 20.3fb−1of data collected in proton–proton collisions at √s=8TeV. This search is sensitive to long-lived particles that decay to Standard Model particles producing jets at the outer edge of the ATLAS electromagnetic calorimeter or inside the hadronic calorimeter. No significant excess of events is observed. Limits are reported on the product of the scalar boson production cross section times branching ratio into long-lived neutral particles as a function of the proper lifetime of the particles. Limits are reported for boson masses from 100 GeVto 900 GeV, and a long-lived neutral particle mass from 10 GeVto 150 GeV